“Not surprising. The DNC was masterful and aggressive compared to the weak, neutered, Obama-is-a-nice-guy-whose-policies-are-bad RNC. “
Some critical factors:
1) The Democrat base is passionate about their nominee and wants to win. They know four more years will cast in stone Obamacare and the socialist regulatory infrastructure they’ve put in place. Plus they know the Congressional Republican leaders (Boehner and McConnell) a reelected Obama will face are compromisers, not fighters. A reelected Obama will be free to continue the socialist revolution.
2) The conservative Republican voter base is not enthusiastic about its nominee. The nominee doesn’t embrace the conservative base and the elites surrounding him have contempt for the Tea Party. The base, to the extent it is engaged, is voting against the other guy, not for its guy. If the media can convince enough conservatives Obama will win, enough conservatives may not vote to ensure an Obama victory.
3) The media is all out for Obama and will carry the torch with no pretense at being objective. No lie will be too big to repeat until it becomes the truth.
4) Demographics trends are real. No doubt there will be a big ground game effort to get out the minorities whether or not they are registered or eligible to vote.
5) The white guilt factor. Believe it or not there are whites who have been brainwashed to believe voting against Obama is racist. In a race this close, 1% could swing the election.
6) The entitlement class has grown during the recession. Many people in their 50’s, the natural conservative constituency, have lost jobs in this recession and cannot find comparable replacements or jobs at all. They are now dependents of the state and will vote accordingly for self survival.
7) The health care system is a mess and the Republicans have offered no alternative to Obamacare. Status quo is not an acceptable alternative to Obamacare for many people struggling with escalating costs and preexisting conditions. The failure to articulate a more attractive alternative to Obamacare is the failure to take advantage of the public’s dislike of the President’s signature health care program.
8) Romney has apparently chosen to fight a “safe” campaign against the Chicago mob. A weak defensive posture will not win this game (ask McCain, George HW Bush, and Bob Dole).
9) There will be a late September or October surprise, either military or financial. When the nation is in peril, voters tend to stay with the known, not go with the unknown. Does Romney have a game plan to deal with it?
Excellent points, which support my belief that Obama will prevail. The GOP is spent and does not know how to fight anymore.
In itself, that point could be the game-changer. The welfare class is less of a political threat than you might think because of their entitlement mentality. They're convinced they have the right to welfare while doing nothing in exchange. That "nothing" includes getting off the couch and voting Democrat.
That entitlement mentality is the likely cause of the low turnout rates in the welfare culture. They're so sure they're entitled, many of them don't vote their interest because they see no need to.
On the other hand, a guy in his 50s who needs the assistance is more likely to pull the lever for the (D) to show he's not an ingrate. Believe it or not, your Republic may be saved by entitled ingrates who get the idea that voting Dem in exchange for their benefits is beneath them