Cheer Up: Four Reasons Why Obama May Lose Big in November

Ever since former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney clinched the 2012 Republican presidential nomination last May, President Obama and his surrogates have waged a divisive and dishonest re-election campaign in order to distract voters from his failed record. To that end, they have spent millions of dollars on negative campaign advertisements suggesting the presumptive Republican nominee is, among other things, a “vulture capitalist," a “felon” a “pioneer in outsourcing,” and -- most recently -- a coldhearted technocrat responsible for the death of a steelworker’s terminally ill wife. These outrageous charges have been discredited by independent fact-checkers, of course, but at least one spot continues to air in swing states. In any case, perhaps it’s not surprising that some conservatives worry these factually dubious attack ads could impede Governor Romney’s campaign momentum.

And while these concerns are decidedly real and should not be taken lightly, I nevertheless believe Barack Obama faces four significant challenges in the days ahead:

(1): This election is going to come down to jobs and the economy. As much as Team Obama (and our sycophantic national media) want to obsess about Mitt Romney’s tax returns, Paul Ryan’s “draconian” cuts to Medicare, or Congressman Akin’s callous comments -- the simple fact is that the national unemployment rate is still an incredible 8.3 percent. And further, it has been above 8 percent for 42 straight months. This is what Americans care about. No incumbent president since World War II, according to the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, has won re-election with the unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent. This precedent would be deeply troubling to Team Obama in any event -- but it is particularly noteworthy now since the nonpartisan Congressional Budget office (CBO) released a study on Thursday reporting that the unemployment rate will exceed eight percent for the rest of this year. Even worse, the CBO added, if lawmakers in Washington don’t strike a bipartisan debt deal in time -- that is, before the country plummets off the so-called “fiscal cliff” -- the economy will slide into another recession in 2013. The stakes -- as they say -- have never been higher. The question, then, is who is the best candidate to lead America during these difficult times? One alternative is a president whose latest (unanimously defeated) budget proposal literally never balanced and theoretically added more than $11 trillion to the federal debt over ten years. The other is a successful former Republican Governor from a Blue State who balanced his state’s budget four years in a row without raising taxes.

The joint fund-raising committee for Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, claimed cash on hand totaling $185.9 million at the end of July, compared to $123.7 million for Obama’s joint committee.

The candidates’ joint fund-raising committees include their own campaigns, their parties’ national committees and other affiliated committees.

This is a remarkable achievement. Why? Incredibly, last March the president enjoyed a ten-to-one cash on hand advantage over his Republican challenger. Since that time, however, Team Obama profligately funneled millions of dollars into negative advertisements which, according to numerous surveys, have demonstrably failed to make a meaningful impact. (The latest Fox News survey shows Mitt Romney now leading by one percentage point). It’s also worth mentioning that stringent federal election laws prevent Mitt Romney from spending general election contributions until after the Republican National Convention. In other words, expect to see an ad blitz over the next several months, especially in crucial swing states, explicitly reminding voters that the president raided $700 billion from Medicare to pay for an expensive and unpopular new entitlement, loosened work requirements for welfare recipients, and signed into law an $825 billion “stimulus” package that failed on its own terms.

(3): Republicans are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in November, according to at least one national survey. As Guy reported last month, voter enthusiasm among Republicans outpaces that of Democrats for the first time since 2004.

As the graph shows, Democratic enthusiasm has dropped precipitously -- 22 percentage points in four years -- while at the same time Republican enthusiasm has risen 16 full percentage points. The math speaks for itself. (Who would have thought, by the way, that The One would watch helplessly as his base abandoned him en masse less than four years after his historic rise to prominence?) Now, of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats will cross party lines and endorse his opponent. I doubt that many will. But it does suggest, however, that a plurality of Democrats -- many of whom are disenchanted with the president’s economic policies -- will elect to stay home on Election Day. Put simply, Republicans can expect a higher voter turnout in 2012 than in any other recent presidential election; and Democrats are panicking for good reason.

(4): This campaign will be about ideas -- not personalities -- as long as Republicans don’t lose control of the narrative. This is precisely why I believe Mitt Romney chose Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) as his running mate in the first place. Unlike Democrats, Republicans have solutions to the nation’s most pressing problems. For example, Medicare’s own actuaries estimate the program will be insolvent within twelve years. And yet, President Obama and his cabinet -- after nearly four years in office -- have failed to do anything whatsoever to avoid that outcome. Sure, one can argue that the Paul Ryan plan “ends Medicare as we know it” -- but so does doing nothing. Failing to act now -- while there’s still time -- will only trigger real “draconian” spending cuts later.

We need leaders who aren’t afraid to tackle the tough issues. And while Romney/Ryan has made great strides in laying out a clear vision for the country, I am absolutely convinced the current occupant of the White House has not.

There’s nothing novel about the individual points above. But taken collectively -- that is to say, if voters recognize the president’s economic policies have prolonged the recession, and if Mitt Romney out-raises Barack Obama financially, and if a plurality of Democrats stay home on Election Day, and finally, if the candidates discuss real issues on the campaign trail -- I think Governor Romney will triumph in November. On the other hand, to borrow a phrase from Alexander Hamilton -- one of the principal authors of The Federalist Papers -- “this is a thing more ardently to be wished than seriously to be expected.”

No one disputes President Obama’s charisma, personal charm and rhetorical skill. And some Democrats will vote for him no matter how much his policies have negatively impacted their lives. In the end, however, the question that the American people must ask themselves -- as Ronald Reagan once encouraged citizens to ask -- is this: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

We the People, of course, have a choice to make on Election Day. One that I believe will determine the trajectory and fate of this nation.

How many people want to bet me that Romney is paying his bills very quickly, possibly getting a fast pay discount & that Obama has a sizeable Accounts Payable balance?

IF so, the ‘Cash on Hand’ balance at the end of July could really be misleading....

Obama could have an Accounts Payable balance that will eat up most of that cash on hand & Romney’s money is high in cash and very low in Accounts Payable.

I hve worked as a bookkeeper to small businesses for over 35 years.

One client was allowed a 10% discount on his inventory purchases from his major supplier if he paid the bill within 10 days.

He had NEVER done that, in over 25 years in business.

I showed him tht he could do that & save considerable money.

The first year I worked for him, I saved him more money that the money he paid me as an outside contractor.

How many people want to bet me that Romney is paying his bills very quickly, possibly getting a fast pay discount & that Obama has a sizeable Accounts Payable balance?

IF so, the ‘Cash on Hand’ balance at the end of July could really be misleading....

Obama could have an Accounts Payable balance that will eat up most of that cash on hand & Romney’s money is high in cash and very low in Accounts Payable.

I hve worked as a bookkeeper to small businesses for over 35 years.

One client was allowed a 10% discount on his inventory purchases from his major supplier if he paid the bill within 10 days.

He had NEVER done that, in over 25 years in business.

I showed him tht he could do that & save considerable money.

The first year I worked for him, I saved him more money with just that discount than the money he paid me as an outside contractor.

A Las Vegas “odds maker” opines on why Obama will get “killed” by Romney in November

Wayne Allyn Root

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds-maker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an odds-maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on Election Day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida ). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama’s Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I’m a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can’t find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception, it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds-maker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It’s Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

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