Ask and it shall be given you.
Posted on 08/22/2012 12:20:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There's no way that Republicans can lose a Senate race in Missouri while winning two in Massachusetts and Connecticut ... right? Would Spock have to wear a goatee in that universe? Rasmussen’s new poll in the Nutmeg State shows Republican nominee Linda McMahon out to a slight lead over Democratic nominee Chris Murphy in their first look at the general election race for Joe Lieberman's US Senate seat:
Former wrestling executive Linda McMahon holds a narrow lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.
A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in Connecticut shows McMahon with 49% of the vote to Murphy’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
McMahon will surely make Murphy's support for ObamaCare a big issue in the election, but Rasmussen sees that as more of a push:
Murphy voted in favor of President Obama’s health care reform law and has publicly stated that the law will save money on Medicare. When it comes to the future of Medicare, 44% of Connecticut voters are scared more by the president’s health care law than the reform proposal by Mitt Romney’s running mate Paul Ryan. But just as many (43%) say they are more scared of Ryan’s proposal on Medicare. Connecticut voters are more evenly divided on the question than voters are nationwide.
Eighty percent (80%) of Connecticut voters who fear the health care law’s impact on Medicare more support McMahon. Murphy is backed by 77% of those who fear Ryan’s plan for Medicare more.
This can’t be right, can it? Rasmussen must be using a Republican-friendly sample, people will assume … but they’d be wrong. In fact, the sample D/R/I (46/32/22) more closely resembles the 2008 Democratic wave exit polls (43/27/31) than the 2010 exit polls (39/28/33) for Connecticut. Remember that Republicans lost the Senate seat in 2010 even with the narrower gap in turnout, too. Murphy has a seven-point lead among women, which Rasmussen oversamples (56/44) in comparison to 2008 (53/47) and 2010 (49/51). The poll sample, if anything, might be tilted a little in Murphy’s favor.
So how does McMahon get her lead? She has a 24-point margin among independents, 55/31, for one thing. McMahon only trails by nine among voters under 40 (40/49), but gets a majority of the other two age demos, including an 18-point lead among seniors. Both candidates are seen favorably by voters, but McMahon’s 54/43 is slightly better than Murphy’s 50/41. Among independents, though, McMahon again far outpaces Murphy, with a 57/36 compared to Murphy’s 38/46 — and only 6% of independents view Murphy “very favorably,” as opposed to 23% for McMahon.
The big difference, besides the obvious advantage among independents, is probably the economy. Democrats will be on defense, especially Murphy, who currently has a seat in the House. Only 5% of voters rate the economy as “good,” with no one rating it excellent. A majority of 57% rate it “poor,” and another 37% only rate it “fair.” That will not help an incumbent, not even in Connecticut.
If McMahon can maintain her advantage over Murphy, the GOP may get an unexpected pickup to make up for the now-expected loss in Missouri. It might also force Obama to spend some resources to make sure McMahon doesn’t drive enough turnout to have Connecticut voters thinking about change at the very top of the ticket, too.
CT goes Republican??? Love to see it, but I’ll believe it when I see pigs fly. Of course, Scott Brown did win an open seat in MA last time........
Wow... puttin the smack down on her opponent.
“Would Spock have to wear a goatee in that universe?”
“Mirror Mirror,” one of my favorite Original Series episodes. Some one please post the photo of Spock in the goatee. Oh heck, forget that. How about Uhura in the “two piece” uniform? A much better image...
Probably not in my area in the nw corner...here it’s all Chris Murphy drones.
I think a lot of voters are thinking just that, but aren't saying it out loud yet.
A hopeful sign.
Also have to consider that many voters will vote for McMahon because they are WWE fans. I hope she wins it would take a huge load off of the whole MO Senate race
God BLESS this lady!!!!!
How about a picture of Uhura meeting Obama in the oval office!
Linda was making the rounds at our annual oyster festival last Saturday in Milford. Meanwhile the Dems’ tent was swarmed with AFSCME and SEIU members all wearing purple 99%er t-shirts. They played the part of angry rent-a-thugs too well. It was a stark contrast. I’ve been optimistic since then.
I’ve been trying to tell folks here for a while, but even few here want to listen. The real political discussion by October will be will the Republicans get 60 Senate Seats. Only the biggest leftist kool aid drinkers will remotely trying to argue Obama has any prayer of re-election.
There is a landslide coming, up and down the ballot, and its going to make 2010 and 1994 look like they were good days for democrats by comparison.
the GOP may get an unexpected pickup to make up for the now-expected loss in Missouri.”
Maybe, maybe not.....I’d love to see Akin put it to the Dem.
Ditto. I'm not buying this poll. McMahon got crushed by an opponent far worst than Murphy last time, in an otherwise great year for the GOP. If she wins this time, I'll eat my hat. At least those who think John Raese has a prayer in West Virginia are clinging to the hope that they'll be coattails from Romney winning big in that state. What has McMahon got? The state is safe RAT for Obama so it's hard to believe they're that peeved about Obamacare.
IMO, we should focus on taking RAT-held Senate seats in Nebraska, Wisconsin, Virgina, Ohio, Montana, Michigan, Florida, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. The idea that Conn. is "in play" is a distraction for the GOP and diverts our resources from where they are needed. We'd probably have a better chance at taking New Mexico and Hawaii from the RATs, and both of those are unlikely as it is.
No thanks. I was thinking of the Uhura of 1968...
You are making my head spin and heart quiver!!!! Wow, that’s a bold and awesome prediction!
’ve been trying to tell folks here for a while, but even few here want to listen. The real political discussion by October will be will the Republicans get 60 Senate Seats. Only the biggest leftist kool aid drinkers will remotely trying to argue Obama has any prayer of re-election.
There is a landslide coming, up and down the ballot, and its going to make 2010 and 1994 look like they were good days for democrats by comparison.
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Man, I hope you are right. I would take a Romney squeaker...anything...just get that Clown out of the WH.
Ask and it shall be given you.
I’m not buying either. I’ll gladly take the CN Senate seat if it happens. That would mean a bloodbath for the democrats nationally, and I would party like it’s 1980. Come to think of it, 1980 was a continuous party...but I digress...
In addition to the seats you list, don’t forget we have to play defense too. Indiana polls show Mourdock, who deposed Lugar, more or less even with Donnelly. Despite the fact that Romney is running away with Indiana and Pence will likely defeat Gregg for Governor, Donelly is running effective ads and Mourdock has not yet responded.
Awesome! Thank you.
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