I have to admit, after seeing the fox poll today, I am worried.
The only poll that is consistently good is Rasmussen. I know Ras was dead on in 04 and 08...so he is very good/unbiased. But he seems to be an outlier this time around.
Ras has it Romney +4
Fox has it Obama +9
CNN has it Obama +7
Thoughts anyone? Cheer me up on a Friday...
Ras is the only polling service now that isn’t massively oversampling democrats in their polls.
Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.
Best I can do is say that all the polls are worthless at this point because history has shown us that the vast majority of voters don't even really start paying attention until after the conventions and the debates. If the polls still have Obama up by 9 on October 10, then you can start to worry...
I left work at 4:30 PST and turned on the car radio only to hear that they were ready to announce a winner. My heart sank, until of course they announced the winner.
I think Carter won about 6 states.
Every since then, I really don't believe the polls.
For this election, buried in deepest blue California, I am seeing astonishing results when talking to my nephew's leftist friends. Believe me Obama is not popular with them. Most will probably not bother to vote.
That poll had 9% more democrats, and 115 Hispanic voters were added.
FOX just reports, but they pay no attention to the small print. The confusion is good for ratings.
i can tell you this...i live in uber liberalsville; New Castle, NY- two miles from the clinton’s and one mile from RFK Jr....a couple of things:
1- four years ago 7 out of every ten cars in the area had an obama bumper sticker on them...now its one of every 40...in the past twelve hours i saw two separate cars with “DEFEAT OBAMA” stickers on them and am seeing more of those types of sticker- unheard of in this area...
2- on Tuesday, at a local Lions club, a former democrat woman held a press conference with media on hand and Tea Party members as she’s opening up a local chapter of Citizens for Romney....it was a Jewish woman from my gym who told me about it...this is unheard of in my area...
3- the Jews i speak with in my area cannot wait to vote against obama- these are people registered as democrats or independents...unheard of in this area...
4- our parish priest several weeks ago spoke of the war against Catholics and religion that is brewing in DC and said he fears Priests will be the first target- again, unheard of...
5- i am an avid watcher of the Olympics- trained for the decathlon for ten years...for the past two weeks my TV sets have been switching between NBC/MSNBC/NBCSports 24/7...why do i tell you this??? four years ago during the Bejing games every third commercial on MSNBC was touting their upcoming convention and election coverage as they knew obama was going to win...the past two weeks i saw one very tepid commercial on MSNBC about their upcoming election coverage...
i too was worried about the polls but just taking the temperature of an area that went 63% for obama i just don’t see it- this is Romney’s election to lose...then again maybe i should start worrying ;)
dang! How’s Obama doing so good with Fox?
This is close to over. Romney must say what he is going to do if elected clearly and without platitude and he must take a Tea Party VP. We are running out of time!!!
Take out the 7%-9% Democrat oversampling bias in the Fox and CNN polls, and they then come more into line with Ras. Also keep in mind that Ras polls likely voters; the other two do not. So unless you account for these discrepancies, comparing Fox or CNN polls to Ras is apples and oranges.
I take all polls between Memorial day and Labor day with more than a grain of salt because people with jobs and families tend to go away on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Or at least spend weekends at the beach or in the mountains. Since the economy is not in quite as bad shape as it was a couple of years ago, people with a few dollars to spend might be just a little more inclined to take the kids on vacation than they were in 2010.
So it's very encouraging that Rasmussen's polling has shown Romney ahead by 4 in mid-week polling. Today's poll, for example, reflects a 3-day average of numbers obtained on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. Note also that Gallup has Obama +2, on a 7 day rolling average of registered, not likely voters. IMO, they're still undercounting Republicans by polling registered voters, though. Gallup has been polling since FDR, so I'd weigh this more than the outfits that Fox, WSJ and the networks use.
After Labor day, the vacationers should come back home and will be available to be polled, so the Republican/conservative numbers should improve. By election time, the pollsters should all show whatever Rasmussen trend shows, so they won't look like complete idiots when they hawk their polling for the next cycle. Really, Democrats do not outnumber Republicans by 9% of likely voters, and any poll that concludes it is worthless.
follow Rasmussen AND Gallup tracking polls together. Together they were right on the money in 2004 and 2004
Rasmussen is the only polling I would pay any attention too. The news stations polls are just a way to make a quick and cheap story to advance their agendas. Rasmussen polls day in and day out, so I think their results are more trustworthy.
A CT state poll had Obama winning by 7, in a state he won by 20+ in 08. That same poll showed ROMNEY up significantly among independents . . . in CT!!
A Northern VA poll had Zero winning by two in that part of the state. But in 08, he won that part of the state by 23. If he only wins that by 2, he'll lose VA solidly.
An AARP poll of seniors in FL two days ago had them favoring ROMNEY. Huh? If seniors in FL are going Romney---a key Dem group---the Obama is toast there.
I think Ras is right, and has been consistently showing Romney with a 2-5 point lead.
Another day, another poll to disprove.
44% of respondents self identified as Democrat
35% of respondents self identified as Republican
I am shocked that a poll which oversamples Democrats by 9 points shows Obama winning by 9 points! Shocked I say.
In 2008, during the height of the Hopium movement, Democrats turnout led by 8%....so it looks a little extreme to oversample Democrats by 9%.
But lets look at 2010 mid terms. Rat - 15.4 million. GOP -19.2 million. Ok, now a 9% dem oversample is looking a little fishy.
Look deeper into 2010: Rat turnout was up in 12 states, down in 30 (with record lows in 13 states). Gop was up in 39 states and down in 7....and they had record turnouts in 12 states. alright, now its starting to look like any poll that oversamples Rats by 9% is just complete garbage.
Now look even deeper into the midterms...at the ‘swing’ states. Rats had record low turnout in Florida, New Mexico, and North Carolina. The GOP had a record turnout in Florida. All those polls that say Barry is winning Florida - throw them out, they are oversampling. And any talk that Barry wins New Mexico or North Carolina....only after an oversampled poll is taken.
So, what the h*** is going on over at Fox?
I think it’s very reasonable to believe that Obama is ahead, maybe far ahead.
The People are enraptured by lies, just as Theoden was by Grima Wormtongue. The People believe in lots of free sh*t, equality of results as an appropriate government responsibility, no responsibility for the financial consequences of their sexual and gluttonous behaviors, that “single moms” are heroic figures who deserve tons of OPM, and lots of other things.
If YOU believe in those things, Obama is your guy.
This is how I’m looking at it.
(Or trying to, because I’m pretty much on the verge of panic about the election. Adding to that I’m having a big outdoor party here tomorrow and it’s pouring rain and my kid for whom the party is will have to drive the 250 miles here in this rain, so what can I say? If my house were ever to catch on fire - do it now, because I’m in the right state of mind for it!)
But, I digress.
I hope the American people will not let the Democrats win via a path of ludicrous lies about Romney. I hope the American people are realizing that 4 more years of Obama, Reid and shadow Pelosi will not improve our collective lot at all and stand a good chance of making things far worse. I hope the American people are just going to quietly make up their minds that Obama had his chance, he failed, and he needs to go. Too bad he’s black and all that, but still - don’t let the door hit you in the butt on your way out.
I was on the Commentray website the other day and we discussed the Dinkins/Giuliani re-match. Another poster there reminded me that the race was very, very close. Dinkins was the first black mayor of NYC and although he may have been well-intentioned he was a miserable failure.
Even the NYC libs had to give him the gate, regretfully I’m sure.
I hope the same thing happens this election. But, and I know this is going to aggravate a lot of people here, the base is going to have to work for Romney, we are going to have to get those mushy-middlers to the polls to pull the lever “R”.
I myself intend to do this after labor day, my life has been crazy lately and I’m sorry I haven’t already started.
I don’t really care if a person has a deep hatred in their heart for Romney. Obama must not be re-elected, at the very best we’ll have 4 years of turmoil during his second, more flexible, term. Aside from that I think these politics of personal destruction and outright lies really need to be rejected.
I keep remembering how Fox News Dynamics (since renamed) had kerry up by five points just 3 days before the election.
I think this is all a counter to the chick fil a panic of the homosexuals at these newsrooms.