Posted on 08/10/2012 8:21:55 AM PDT by barmag25
I live in yonkers / Bronx area and there is literally nothing whatsoever. Maybe a 2012 sticker here or there - but thing zilch.
Because they actually came out to vote. Adults/registered voters/likely voters are an unstable number, but actual voters who do go to the polls - for sure - are a "sure thing." The odds of them voting again are pretty solid.
2008 tells them what % voted for who, so they use that as their guide. Those same people will vote again (although, personally, I think a lot of democrats will just stay home. They won't want 4 more years of this disaster, but they won't vote Republican either).
This is why Obama is pushing a third party run.
Obama just needs a few useful idiots to vote for a libertarian or conservative party and siphon off a couple hundred thousand votes.
I think this is a data dump meme for the sunday shows.
This is how the MSM spun war sentiment. They keept the big lie going 1000 times until it became fact. Remember a lie repeated often becomes fact.
The “Medium is the Massage” (intentional to duplicate the book) folks read THAT book. It is very short and easy to read. It lays out the MSM propaganda methonds.
The MSM needs obama to be leading so they can MAKE obama be leading.
Ding! Ding! Ding! The panicked Dems are using skewed polls to panic us, and to turn us against the GOP nominee and against each other. They do it every time, and I'm not falling for it.
I remember it, because Fox had the pollster on the day after the election. They ask him how he got it so wrong, and told him he had one of the worse poll results. I don't even think MSNBC gave Kerry 5 points.
The polls, especially the ones that have Obama winning by 11% are absolutely accurate. If they oversample Democrats, that's because Democrats are far more likely to show up at the polls than Republicans. Romney will lose every single state. There is absolutely no hope. In fact, Obama doesn't even need to run -- he should simply proclaim himself (more of a) King.
Let's kill ourselves.
No matter how HORRIFYINGLY PAINFULLY TRAGICALLY AWFUL it really is, it is a MILLION times worse. Then things get *really* tough. After that, HORRIBLE things happen, and then we REALLY get screwed. Immediately following that, the BOTTOM drops out and we are all DEAD, and THEN things get HARD! Once that happens, it signifies the TOTAL collapse of EVERYTHING, and that’s when the CATASTROPHE starts! It’s the sign of the end of EVERYTHING, but after that, comes the TRAGEDY. Then times get DIFFICULT, and things get WORSE, until it’s EXCRUCIATING, but that’s just the beginning, because after that it’s all PAIN.
As a former drunken sailor, I'm hugely offended by that comment. We were spending our own money, not campaign donations!!
Thanks for the response. The reasoning sounds logical except there is plenty of evidence to suggest that 2008 was an aberration due to many factors which won’t be present in 2012 (historical election, Obama was new and exciting esp. to young voters and even older folks who had never voted before, plus he had an overwhelming money advantage, and so on). Pollsters should also take into account what happened in 2010 and the recent polls showing Republican enthusiasm is higher than Democrats and that a significant number of Obama voters have become Republicans.
I believe Rasmussen has it about right. I don’t remember exactly what his breakdown is but i’m thinking it’s relatively even between the parties or at most a 2-3% advantage for Democrats. Anything higher than 5% just isn’t realistic in my opinion.
That's what it was designed to do.
It has zero value as a gauge of public opinion.
Ditto - he was a clear voice of reason in a sea of political sharks and carnival barkers.
The year was 1979. President Jimmy Carter had run America into the ground during his first term as president. Ronald Reagan was his opponent as Carter campaigned for a 2nd term.
The mainstream media at one point claimed Reagan was a 30 point underdog. Two weeks prior to the November election Reagan was declared a 10 to 11 point underdog by the MSM.
Ronald Reagan WON 90% of the states. Carter got his ass kicked severely. It DIDN'T work then, and it WILL NOT work now. Here, watch this old YouTube video from election night 1979.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVeAQgxkN3M History will REPEAT itself. WHY?
As Dan Rather reluctantly stated that night, "the people wanted CHANGE".
point taken ;)
It was just an analogy..
It was just an analogy..
Understood. Not a problem. :=)
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