I refer you to Afghanistan and Iraq.
The military would have a SOB of a time “crushing” any domestic uprising. The IRA never numbered more than several hundred. The Brits controlled the whole of northern Ireland with a very professional army. They had the insurgency basically confined to an island where they controlled all approaches. The British fought on for decades, and finally had to negotiate a peace.
1) First, a domestic uprising would only happen after extreme provocation, so people nationwide would already be on edge. The uprising would never happen unless something happened to convince people that all political remedies were futile, and the government would likely start the rebellion with some overt act that went “too far”.
2) a crushing response only spreads the movement.
3) Fighting in Iraq is one thing, doing it on you own logistical tail is quite another.
4) No insurgency would face them force on force. It would be another of those fights seen all around the world involving IEDs, blackmail, ambush, deceit, and military leaders would find their families targeted for kidnap, murder, etc. This recently happened when a Mexican Marine was killed fighting Cartels. They gave him a funeral with honors. Later that night, his mother, sister, and several others were all murdered.
History shows that political leaders who ordered and supported a US military attack on American citizens would also be personal endangered, bribed, blackmailed, and neutralized.
Imagine for example, a drone operator shot dead as he stopped for gas on his way home in Nevada, a thousand miles from the war zone. No military would be safe, anywhere. The crackdown would have to be nationwide, and wouldn’t stay local. The heavy handed actions necessary would anger people who were not involved to begin with. Resentment towards the government grows.
5) Our military uses the USA as a home base. Their bases, supply depots, maintenence activites, factories, air bases etcc are extremely vulnerable and scattered.
6) The Military would have to be extremely concerned about their troops loyalty. Often they will be sypathetic to the uprising. A classic example is found in Russia. When the tanks rolled into Moscow in 1991. They were supposed to crush the pro-Yeltsin crowd. In about a half hour they were hugging the crowd, sharing tea and bread, and started shelling the Russian government building on BEHALF of the crowd.
7) Our military is amazing when used against a foreign enemy. But if it was turned against the American people, here in America, you would quickly see it swallowed up into a nationwide chasm of national disorder. Our military just spent 10 years in Iraq which is about the size of Texas. It was bled white, and most units did 3, 4, or 5 tours.
8) In recent wars, the military could always rest and refit here. They knew their families were safe at home. They knew that in general the nation was behind them. Its a very different animal when none of that is true.
9) The chaos causes extreme business disruptions in our close coupled, just in time economy. This adds pressure to quickly negotiate. Politicians are under unbelievable pressure. The opposition party is seen as an alternative to the one that sparked the insurgency.
There won’t be a Gettysburg in modern insurgency. There will be a nasty insurgency, with a political component that would be as important as the killing wing.
This experience is best left to the imagination.
Good list. Add one more thing: The US military is funded by the promise of US taxpayers. If the US taxpayers stop paying into the fed the military ceases to receive funding and the little credit extended by foreign nations might be zero if they feel the fed won’t win.
Huge point, you are saying the war could be won.
The leftist socialists to help usher in the 82 United States of Amerixico may envision a slaughter of the “dangerous” Tea Partiers, to also take their property and redistribute it. But they might have another thing coming.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RRoCkncvYo&info=JudasPriest_YouGotAnotherThingComing
169 is must reading. Thanks.
Your 1 through 9 should be sent to every military officer and NCO.
A CW here would, I think, devolve into a dirty civil war, shades of Argentina, Balkans, some Rwanda, etc.
Beyond a horror show.
And it might so totally cripple the economy and delivery systems, that all urban zones explode in uncontainable food riots.
Then Katy Bar the Door, All Bets Are Off.
There won’t be a Gettysburg in modern insurgency. There will be a nasty insurgency, with a political component that would be as important as the killing wing.
An intelligent people who understood all of the dynamics you presented in your full post would probably push their wayward government to make the first move, and commit to a full scale imposition of martial law against its citizens, thereby hastening the inevitable outcome.