(Mine is on the back window of my pickup.)
Posted on 08/08/2012 7:27:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Today's Washington Post/ABC News poll gives a little bit of good news to Barack Obama --- and therefore some bad news for Mitt Romney. In an advance look at the overall poll results, Obama leads Romney on favorability. However, the gap narrows when the poll reports only from registered voters, which the Post and ABC fail to mention:
Although 40 percent of voters now say they hold a favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor — virtually unchanged from May — those holding negative views of him ticked higher in the new survey, from 45 percent to 49 percent.
Meanwhile, President Obama remained in positive territory on that measure, with 53 percent of voters reporting favorable opinions of him. Only 43 percent say they feel unfavorably toward him.
To find the favorability gap among registered voters, one has to look at the report from the pollster, provided by ABC News. Among RVs, Obama leads in favorability 49/42. That represents a tie for the Obama low in this poll for 2012 (also 49% in February), while Romney's 42% is the second-highest report for him since the primaries started in January. Dropping three points in a month isn't exactly great news for Romney, but it's also not as bad as Obama's drift as an incumbent — especially an incumbent who has spent well into nine figures this spring and summer trying to destroy Romney’s credibility through harshly negative advertising.
Of course, we have a lot of problems in the WaPo/ABC poll series with sampling. In these advance results reports, the sampling data is not usually included, and today’s report is no exception. We can’t evaluate these results fully until we determine how well the modeling of the sample data matches that of the electorate in 2012. That doesn’t mean that the information is entirely useless, however, especially within party-affiliation demographics. Those results are a mixed bag for both candidates, too:
INDEPENDENTS – Obama’s gained back ground he’d lost among independents, customarily swing voters in national elections. In late May he fell numerically underwater among independents for the first time since December (45-52 percent favorable-unfavorable). He’s now back far in front of Romney in this group, largely because of gains among independent women.
Among all independents, Obama’s favorability rating is now 16 points higher than Romney’s (53 percent vs. 37 percent). At the same time, that narrows among independents who are registered to vote – 46 percent favorable for Obama, 38 percent for Romney – indicating, among other factors, the potential importance of voter registration drives in the few months ahead.
That’s an eight-point swing among independents between general-population adults and registered voters — which sounds a little odd to me. I’d expect to see some difference, but eight points is pretty large. Still, this isn’t good news for Romney, who needs to beat Obama’s seven-point win in 2008 among unaffiliated voters.
However, Romney has some good news on the Republican-unity front:
Among partisans, Romney’s caught up with Obama in popularity within his own party; 83 percent of Republicans rate Romney positively, as do 84 percent of Democrats for Obama. That’s Romney’s best-ever rating with the party faithful, up 25 points since mid-March.
Romney’s rated favorably by fewer conservatives, 65 percent, though this, too, is a new high.
That’s not a bad development, nor is Romney in desperate straits as we roll toward the conventions. Team Obama still hasn’t scored a knockout, and they’re three weeks away from getting seriously outpunched in the general election. Having an incumbent at 49% favorability among registered voters suggest that it’s probably lower among likely voters — and both are bad numbers for the candidate looking for re-election.
Update: Yes, I meant to say three weeks – or to be very precise, three weeks and two days. Romney can start spending general-election cash once he accepts the nomination at the convention, and that is the official start of the general election.
I still think “favorability” is a misleading indicator. I think a lot of people don’t want to admit they don’t like him because of the “R-ism” issue.
Sounds like a formula for a mystery third-party celebrity candidate appearing at the 11th. hour.
(Mine is on the back window of my pickup.)
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cell phone Aug. 1-5, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,026 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.
Random sample, not even registered voters let alone likely voters.
the fact that this is in play at all, is very very bad news for this country.
we are in decline.
I hope and pray that the country wakes up, but I do not think it will. Perhaps we just haven’t hit rock bottom yet. Perhaps we haven’t hit that point that some reformed alcholics call “the moment of clarity”.
In the large cities, from culture to food stamps I see a country full of fat, whining, lazy-ass citizens, and millions of free loaders who are illegal immigrants. So many people on the public dole.
I will most certainly have to leave the city soon. The wife and I will seek out a slow paced, safe haven.
Also, the ref to VOTER REGISTRATION becoming important. So, it will be of value for both candidates to have dedicated folks on the ground getting out there to get other folks registered to vote ('cause they can't vote if they're not registered).
Good luck with that on Romney's score. He's planning on winning with TV ads. The 40% of the Republican voting base who are Conservative provide the foot soldiers who do that registration battle.
Obama may have a similar problem as well. If the black ministers aren't supporting his effort to make homosexuality mandatory, they sure aren't going to be running registration campaigns.
This is still a race to the bottom and all the statistical analysis in the world won't tell you what you want to know in time ~ those things only work when interest in campaigns is building and people are getting fired up to campaign for their guy.
Also, the ref to VOTER REGISTRATION becoming important. So, it will be of value for both candidates to have dedicated folks on the ground getting out there to get other folks registered to vote ('cause they can't vote if they're not registered).
Good luck with that on Romney's score. He's planning on winning with TV ads. The 40% of the Republican voting base who are Conservative provide the foot soldiers who do that registration battle.
Obama may have a similar problem as well. If the black ministers aren't supporting his effort to make homosexuality mandatory, they sure aren't going to be running registration campaigns.
This is still a race to the bottom and all the statistical analysis in the world won't tell you what you want to know in time ~ those things only work when interest in campaigns is building and people are getting fired up to campaign for their guy.
I think it is clear Obama is now ahead and is the favorite in the race. I wish it weren’t so, but demographics and an increasing moocher class have made it inevitable.
I do think Romney still has a chance to win a close race. He’ll have to run a stronger campaign than he has to this point, and he is going to have to find a way to convince disenchanted conservatives to give him a shot. A difficult task for sure, but not impossible.
Though I am not a fan, I hope he can pull it off. Undoing four more years of Obama damage will be difficult at best, and potentially impossible.
The real poll numbers
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one.
If he carries all three of these states and also wins all the others where Obama is now at 50% or less – Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey — he will get 351 electoral votes, a landslide about equal to Obama’s 363 vote tally in 2008.
The strong probability is that Romney does, in fact, carry Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and a share of the other states where Obama is below 50% of the vote.
So don’t believe the garbage being put out by the media. The attempt to portray Romney as not catching on and as dropping in the polls is ludicrous. It is, at best, the product of incompetent polling and, at worst, the result of deliberate media bias. But Romney is winning and expanding his lead each week. That’s the real story.
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-data-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
RE: I think it is clear Obama is now ahead and is the favorite in the race. I wish it weren’t so, but demographics and an increasing moocher class have made it inevitable.
Here’s a question for everyone -— at this point in time in 1980, how was Jimmy Carter in the polls compared to Ronald Reagan?
I sure hope Dick Morris is right
...And in other news I’ve got a poll showing most agree the sun comes in the morning.
Democrats are much harder to dislodge when all you can offer them is what was once described as "me to".
I think that was directed at Willkie, a very Romney-esque fellow, by Roosevelt in his third campaign.
A Democrat will vote for a Republican who has some fundamental ideas straight about truth, justice and the American way and who is not a weak kneed wimp.
Otherwise a Democrat will vote for another Democrat every time ~ even twice if he can get away with it.
Not so. This is no different than the blow out elections of 1994. Democrats and indies booted the Democrats out of congress becasue they did not want anyone messing with theor heqalth care. this is no different.
Romeny will win 60/40 the same as those opposed to Obamacare.Real simple!
I seem to recall we had a Democrat in 1992 and in 1996 ~ and this looks more and more like 2008 with a Democrat, then a Republican take over of the House in 2010, and then we run another loser against them and the Democrat squeaks by again.
So, you don't like my Willkie analogy?
I think that there will be historically dem states that will not only be in play but Romney will pick up. Last week, Rush mentioned a poll in Connecticut where Romney was leading by 7. Even States like Mass will be close considering that Romney was gov there and Scott Brown is running. Also, Michigan will be in play since the Romneys are from there.
The economy is getting worse, not better. And the “You didn’t build that” statement by Obama is still resonating.
Lastly, look at the Tea Party victories in Indiana, Texas as well as conservative victories this week in Kansas and Missouri. And let’s not forget about Scott Walker winning convincingly in Wisconsin in June.
The dems have shortened there convention to 3 days and have brought in Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton to speak. Still, a growing number of Dems are not going to the convention. They would still not attend if Obama was so favorable??
Finally, Romney and his PAC’s are raising much more money than Obama is for the 3 straight month. This will continue in my opinion. And Romney and the PAC’s haven’t really begun to spend their money yet.
When you look at the above, something very special is happening. I think it may even dwarf the 1980 Reagan landslide. But we have to be vigilant and ignore these misleading polls.
The moment of clarity will come for many when they stop receiving their government checks or when they dollars they try to use will become worthless due to hyper-inflation. I, too, hope that enough or our fellow citizens wake-up before then, but right now, it is not looking too good.
I still contend that come election week most Americans will take a hard look in the mirror and have a very difficult time moving ahead with a Obama conformation.
The electorate is completely different today and there are less thinking Americans than there were then... we have generations of indoctrinated leftists... trained and mis-educated in the public school system. We have a man that is one of the worst gop candidates of my lifetime. I know many of you think that it is not true but even those that I know that are 100% certain to vote for romney... do not like him. We all know why... You Tube is full of mitt in his own words, describing himself as a progressive and then articulating his support for all agenda items that Conservatives stand against.
mitt has done absolutely nothing to win over the base, when all polling is showing that he has a problem with us. Many of his moves seem to be hostile to the Conservative base. He thinks that he can skate to a victory and that is not going to happen. Today abc news reported that Gallup is showing mitt at the lowest approval rating of any presidential challenger candidate in our history. Maybe that is true and maybe it is not... but perception is reality in politics the reality is that mitt is considered a weak candidate. IMHO he is just that.
mitt would be a formidable candidate if he were a dim... but he is not a dim... at least he is not running as a dim. mitt himself needs to decide that he wants to win and he needs to fight against obama and those horrible mccainiacs that he has running his campaign. He must find a way to win over those of us that do not trust him... he must find a way the secure his base and then win over America with firm plans and sincere pledges to do what MUST be done to save America. I have my doubts that he is capable of doing those things and that is why I think that this election is so close... when it never should have been.
LLS
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.