Posted on 08/07/2012 3:02:11 PM PDT by blam
Top Wall Street Strategist: 'We're On The Verge Of The Next Great Bull Market'
Mamta Badkar
Aug. 7, 2012, 5:19 PM
In an interview with Bloomberg TV however, BMO's Brian Belski says that despite the lack of investor confidence, stocks are set to do well.
He also said investors in the past decade have focused too much on macro as opposed to stock fundamentals:
"What we have here to quote Cool Hand Luke is "a failure to communicate". Investors clearly have confidence issues this year and that's why you've seen these sharp moves to the upside and the downside. We continue to think we're on the verge of the next great bull market.
...I'm not trying to price myself out of a job but in the last 10 - 12 years we in the investment world have become so macro dominated we've forgotten that really fundamentals define stocks. We live by one very simple premise that stocks lead earnings, which lead the economy. "
In a note to clients, Belski along with BMO strategists Nicholas Roccanova and Mira Borisova point out that "S&P500 earnings are not U.S. GDP". They write that earnings growth is more sensitive to emerging market growth anyway so it could weather a slowdown in the U.S.. They also say historical precedence shows that stock market performance has been strong even when earnings growth has deteriorated.
In fact, continuing on his vein of stock leading earnings, which lead the economy, Belski says:
"We think the stock market revival we've seen in the last several weeks is foreshadowing what's going to happen in the economy again …meaning a recovery in the second half."
Bottom line: While higher earnings growth have led to higher stock prices, it doesn't mean that weakening earnings growth
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Should be showing up on or about the 1st of October.
Romney is destined to win?
If Obama wins in November, the market will crash and we will be in a full-fledged depression. No one should buy stock until after the election.
I imagine that going short or long in the market now is basically akin to betting whether 0 is reelected or not.
Investors, however, seem to be following a different line of thinking. They are responding to two entirely different hypotheses.
1. The economy is doing well. That was the news in the latest unemployment report. Therefore it makes sense to own stocks and gold. As the economy improves, more people will borrow and spend. As they do so, interest rates and consumer prices will rise. Businesses will do better as their sales rise. Higher inflation rates will cause gold to go up, too.
2. The economy is not doing well. And the worse it does the more pressure builds on central bankers to ‘do something.’ What can they do? Only add more cash and credit. More liquidity will send both stocks and gold up.
Now, you will look at these two hypotheses and think you have discovered a sure thing, no? A can’t-lose proposition, right? Either the economy is doing well. Or not. Either way, stocks are going up! Win…win…right?
Wrong!
The German stock market was at 97 in January 1919, 166 in January 1920, 278 in January 1921 and 731 in December 1921.
The German stock market was at 743 in January 1922 and rose to 8,981 in December 1922. The German stock market was at 21,400 in January 1923 and rose to 26,890,000 in November at the peak in 1923.
In nominal terms it sounds like one monsterous bull market, but in real terms as the value of the reichmark circled the drain to worthlessness, it meant nothing.
I'm no financial expert but doesn't lasting gains in stock prices need to be built on earnings? Didn't we learn anything from the Dot Bomb crash of the 90s?
Take that headline advice and run the OTHER WAY fast.
I’ll say this about Obama -
He has behaved EXACTLY as anybody with a decent understanding of his past history would predict.
No honest person can say he’s been a surprise.
How the hell did Baghdad Bob end up working on Wall Street?
That indeed looks like what is happening to us. Wealth can't be preserved, only spent as things spiral out of control. Stocks up, but spending power erroded in a vicious spiral. Sad times coming.
Based on history, I believe we’ll see almost another decade of this bear market before it is over. We will have great opportunities and some devastating losses during this timeframe. Plan accordingly. Gold will rise to +$3,500 per oz. I’m expecting closer to $5,000 per oz.
lets see, nobody can afford to buy the stuff the companies make, but their stocks will go up... what am i missing here???
Yeah, “bull” is right, that’s why I bought more gold and anmmo thiis week!
IMHO - Until Federal spending is reined in and the deficit starts to shrink, further increases in the DOW will mostly be due to the plunging value of the dollar.
The Dow may very well end up at 26,000.
But at the same time a pound of sirloin steak will be $10-$15, a gallon of gasoline will be $20-$25, and a can of Pork & Beans will be $3.00.
If there is another Bernanke Quantitative Easing or another Obama Stimulus it will be worse than that.
The value of the dollar is going down, which makes stocks correspondingly more expensive.
Too Big To Fail?
Seems like everyone reckons that just before it all crashes, Bernanke and Co. (and which ever puppet of Goldmann Sachs is running the Executive Branch) will just bail them out again, at the expense of taxpayers (and everyone with savings, Through hyper inflation).... But at least the Wall Street crowd will be able to line their pockets with other peoples money.
GMTA.
I wasn’t copying, honest.
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