Note the designations of seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/4/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.
Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.
| 8/1/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold/Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| AZ* | Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#) | HOLD | |
| MO | Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| WI* | Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#) | GAIN | |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester* | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| MI | Primary 8/7/12 | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#) | GAIN | |
| CT* | Primary 8/14/12 | GAIN | |
| WA | Primary 8/7/12 | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent #GOP Frontrunner | |||
My current ranking
1)NE
2)AZ
3)IN (new Ras poll has Mourdock up only 42-40 but I’m not worried, the high undecideds must be largley Lugar supporters who won’t break for the democrat as Osama loses the state)
4)MO (Claire looks like toast, this race could move up the list)
5)ND
6)NV (Heller is not in real jeopardy)
7)MT
8)WI ( GOP primary seems to be helping El Lesbo)
9)MA
10)VA
11)FL (moved it back ahead of OH)
12)OH
13)NM
14)MI
15)NJ
16)HI (it’s harder to rank these second tier races, NJ is lot less rat than Hawaii put you make a case to reverse them)
17)PA
18)CT
19)ME (polling looks bad, King has 100% name id though, the rat needs some)
20)WA
21)WV (This should way higher but retread Raese doesn’t seem to have a prayer, the few polls have Manchin running like Bob Byrd, WV is going big Nobama or else I’d put MN ahead even though the Paulbot has no chance in MN, such a shame)