Bush got more like 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and that is probably more of a stretch than Eisenhower’s high estimate of 47 percent of the black vote in 56.
I was posting about Hispanics becoming Protestants, that is a demographic wild card that no one discusses.
Bush won 56% of the Hispanic vote that was Protestant, and in 2008 McCain won 48% of the Protestant Hispanic vote.
No, Bush did not win 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. That figure was based on a flawed exit poll, and has been debunked from both the left and the right. I know Dick Morris and others continue to cite this false figure, but it does us no good to believe something that almost certainly wasn’t true. Bush won at most 40% (maybe one or two points less) of the Hispanic vote. And while that is good for a Republican, it was still a huge, double-digit loss to a rather uninspiring opponent in John Kerry.
So the bottom line is that the most a shameless panderer like Bush could do was a roughly 20 point loss!
I’m not as familiar with the numbers on Hispanic Protestants, but I’ve read they do tend to be more Republican. But this isn’t much to hold out hope on. Mass immigration reinforces the things that make Hispanics vote Democratic in the first place. So as long as we have high levels of Hispanic immigration, it is just a pipe dream that the GOP will win over latinos.