“I’ll be very surprised if the percentages change by over 10%.”
Which would flip Florida, Ohio, and PA.
No, not enough of change to flip any of them based on 2008 vote totals.
However, there remains a small but real possibility that a 10% move in the Jewish electorate (which practically amounts to a closing of the gap by 20% of the total Jewish vote when you take away 10% from Zero and add 10% to the GOP) could be decisive in any of those states. That depends on how other voting patterns may swing, including changes the composition of the whole electorate in 2012 as compared to 2008.