Posted on 07/25/2012 6:35:57 PM PDT by mnehring
Ben Tribbett, one of the state's top bloggers, got me thinking yesterday. He is known as the guy behind the highly rated political blog Not Larry Sabato. But Ben deserves to be even better known as one of the state's best gurus on election statistics down to the precinct level.
Ben has done a lot of mentally "running the numbers" on the potential impact of former Congressman Virgil Goode's run for President as the nominee for the Constitution Party here in Virginia.
Ben is likely - and hopefully soon - to do a blog post an Obama-Romney-Goode race here in the Commonwealth. The media is currently assuming that Goode is not going to be a factor in who wins the White House. They have been assuming the president will win Virginia handily as the polls had been indicating, or that Goode's support in any poll will disappear in November.
But yesterday, a two-way poll in Virginia between President Obama and former Governor Romney showed a dead heat. The national polls are showing a dead heat, with some pundits suggesting Virginia could be the deciding state in the Electoral College.
So again, I am writing in part to encourage Ben - I know he is busy - to lay out the numbers so we all can improve our knowledge here.
We all know what Ralph Nader did in Florida to cost Al Gore the Presidency. We all know what followed in terms of the George W. Bush years. Presidential elections matter. A lot.
A few weeks ago, I was interviewed by a national reporter about Goode's candidacy for President. I said the polls were wrong in saying he would be a big factor in Southwest, where his positions on immigration policy appealed to the most conservative, Republican elements of the area. My view was this: those voters really didn't know Goode and in the end, most would vote for Romney as the viable anti-Obama candidate.
But as to Virginia, I said this: Goode is known in certain parts of the state, and has always shown support there with high name ID in surrounding areas. Goldmanusa :: Should Dems, Anti-Romney Republicans Secretly Fund Goode's Campaign for President? So I figured there was a good chance Goode could get some of those folks if they remained skeptical about Romney especially if the GOP nominee was seen as shifting to a more moderate position on immigration. But I couldn't quantify even a range of potential hard core support. Ben has given it a lot more thought and mathematical analysis.
Again, there is no way to ever know and polls tend to be very unreliable in that they generally way overstate the final vote of a guy like Goode. So one has to avoid getting stuck on a specific number.
BUT there is one thing for certain: Almost all of those who ultimately wind-up voting for Virgil Goode in Virginia would NOT have voted for President Obama.
Therefore, if you assume a close Electoral College race for President, one potential political strategy makes a huge amount of campaign sense for Democrats and those Republicans who don't want to see Romney elected President:
Give money, get money, to the Virginia campaign of Virgil Goode.
Indeed, under the new campaign rules, a group of Dems/Anti-Romney Republicans can masquerade as a pro-Goode SUPER PAC, and secretly fund the whole effort.
As Ben can show, there is an existing pool of potential 2012 voters in Virginia who Goode has a chance of wooing over to his side....with a sufficient amount of money and campaign luck.
It doesn't take a math genius to know that 50-50 Obama vs Romney race in VA could easily come out 49.5 for Obama, 48.5 for Romney and 2.0 for Goode.
Moreover, to the extent the Romney campaign comes to believe it might lose VA, then it has to make some very hard and potentially wrong strategy decisions on how to make up the 13 electoral votes.
MEANING: The viability of the Goode campaign in VA - forget the rest of the country - needs to get some more attention by the national press, indeed the VA press.
Virgil is no more qualified to be President than Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. But in Virginia, the former populist Democrat turned Independent turned conservative Republican turned anti-immigrant Constitutional Party presidential nominee could be the nut in the coconut for the White House come November.
So, I ask you: Given the current polls, the current logic and the current realities, what is more likely to change the outcome of the presidential election? 1) Another $5 million spent on TV ADS focused on Obama or Romney in one way or another; or 2) using that same $5 million to promote Virgil Goode as a protest vote on immigration policy (or whatever), helping persuade voters they can have the biggest impact by using their vote to send both parties a message?
If you will not believe your own common sense, then Ben's numbers will make you see that Virgil Goode, with that kind of chump changed in terms of what is being spent, has as yet an unappreciated ability - with enough money - to get enough votes in Virginia to likely guarantee a win for President Obama in the Old Dominion. And that, in turn, could easily be the key to winning President Obama a second term in the White House.
As a pure matter of risk vs reward, the "risk" of losing votes because you didn't spend that $5 million on either a pro-Obama or anti-Romney ad is far, far less than the potential "reward" of spending that money on pro-Goode ads, thus generating votes for the former Congressman's presidential bid, in turn taking them from Romney, in turn helping Obama win Virginia.
I bet that right now, there are some very smart people sitting around gaming out a strategy of how to make sure Goode gets the benefit of this kind of money, if not more.
In 2000, it was Florida: In 1916, it was California. In 1888, it was New York. In 1884, it was New York again. In 1876, it was Florida. In 1800, it was Delaware. In 2012, it could be Virginia. Which means it could be Virginia's Virgil Goode who determines the 2012 presidential election outcome, one way or the other.
The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.
Here’s a really good ad put out by American Crossroads.
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?feature=player_embedded&v=-Czo5Vf8KZs
“The Muslim trash we currently have in the White House needs to go.”
I agree, but replacing him with a different brand of trash isn’t going to help us.
Goode’s the only prolifer on the ballot, the only one who believes that babykilling is wrong. Come fight with us instead of carrying water for Romney who despises you.
“We put Romney in, we have nobody to fight for us - and that’s far, far worse than having to fight Obama.”
Total BS. Even if we take the Senate Obama will have veto power. I want him, his czars, his executive orders and that lame ass Holder out. In case you haven’t noticed Obama doesn’t follow the rules. He suspends laws (immigration) when it suits him, and even now he is gutting welfare reform. He’s declared himself King and nothing will stop him if he gets a 2nd term.
It’s funny that some ‘conservatives’ objected to Perry, Pawlenty, etc., on the ground that they were Democrats once, yet accept Goode who changes party affiliation like changing underwear (and much more recent). I guess, as long as someone say something that they want to hear, he’s fine.
There is no other option. We have to fight for ourselves, not look for someone else to fight for us. Right now, there are only two people who mathematically will be president, Obama or Romney. None of these third party types will get on enough ballots to even come close to the electoral votes needed for a win. They are nothing more than feeding one’s own ego.
At that, one of the big problems I see is exactly what you expressed, we are always looking for someone to fight for us. We need to fight for ourselves.
At this point, we are hiring someone to be Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces, not some liberator or champion. I for one, can’t stomach the thought of our soldiers saluting Obama for one more day than is necessary.
“Total BS. Even if we take the Senate Obama will have veto power. I want him, his czars, his executive orders and that lame ass Holder out. In case you haven’t noticed Obama doesn’t follow the rules. He suspends laws (immigration) when it suits him, and even now he is gutting welfare reform. He’s declared himself King and nothing will stop him if he gets a 2nd term.”
And what happens to us when Romney puts his stamp on Obamacare and republicans start believing they have to support gay marriage, abortion and O-care in order to get elected?
The only worse disaster than Obama is electing his republican counterpart.
“I guess, as long as someone say something that they want to hear, he’s fine.”
Then why aren’t we backing Romney? He’s been everything to everyone.
“They are nothing more than feeding one’s own ego.”
Is the purpose of an election to vote for the winner or to vote for the candidate who’s beliefs are closest to their own?
The Kenyan needs to go while we still have a country left to save. I don’t want find out what he’s going to do for Russia when he has “more flexibility after the election”
No I will not vote for an abortionist for president. Period. It’s no secret. I’ve been posting that I will not vote for Rudy/Romney abortionist for many years.
Welcome to Free Republic, America’s exclusive site for God, Family, Country, Life & Liberty conservatives!
Romney does not qualify on any count!
J.R.
I agree whole heartedly.
If he tries that stunt we impeach him.
A-men.
Well said, JR and all the rest of you. Thanks!!
I salute you, sir.
That’s nonsense, and if Obama wins it won’t matter if another Republican prolifer is ever nominated...the battle will have been lost.
You are an opponent of the continuation of the Republic as we know it with that kind of logic...as bad as the most militant OWS activist.
“You are an opponent of the continuation of the Republic as we know it with that kind of logic...as bad as the most militant OWS activist.”
No, the true enemies are the folks that put up an election between two babykillers.
JCBreckenridge member for less than 5 months now.
Effin troll....
Nah, Romney is not like, say, Christine O’Donnell who was the darling of some conservatives... until she endorsed Romney, of course.
Why am I a troll?
Because I refuse to vote for Romney?
If Obama wins another term - there will be NO more freedom of religion, the family unit will be destroyed, America as we know & love her - will cease to exist, death panels will end lives - and you can forget about liberty!
To say that Romney would be worse than Obama - is just too crazy to think about! With Romney - we live to fight another day............with Obama - it’s OVER - there will be no 2016! You people are scaring me to death!
I fully agree with him, and for much the same reasons. Look up MY entry date and call ME a troll.
Twit.
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