What I’ve said for two months now: while this will be “close” in terms of popular vote, it will be pretty big electorally in dozens of “close” state votes. “Close Romney victories in OH, FL, WI, MI, VA, NV, IA,, NH, and maybe a couple of other 2008 Obama states will amount to a pretty significant electoral lead.
I expect the truth is the Vote against Obama crowd is huge and can be depended on, with their passion, to get out and vote.
The Vote for Obama crowd will probably continue to say they want to vote for him, but on that first Tuesday in November, will find something else to do that day. Their passion is very low.