Marist poll: Obama 48, Romney 46 (Stasis is the word of the day)

Hotair ^ | 07/17/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[MrChips]

Rasmussen has Romney at 47, Obama at 44. What is the sample Marist uses?

[DarthVader]

Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.

[nhwingut]

Key point by Ed... Obama needs to get a higher turnout to win. And it ain't going to happen.

In 2008, when the electorate really did have a D+7 skew, Obama won by seven points and carried independents by eight. Losing independents would mean that Obama would have to get a base turnout that exceeded the 2008 model, which seems extremely unlikely.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.

[Leep]

Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.

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Still the difference is only 2-3%?

[Leep]

Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.

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Still the difference is only 2-3%?

[OrangeHoof]

Registered voters favors Dems. Likely voters (a smaller, more dependable sample) favors Republicans. I’m noticing a lot of the latest polls boosting Obama are of registered voters.

[madprof98]

No doubt Romney’s upcoming choice of the dynamic Tim Pawlenty as his running mate will turn the tide.

[The_Victor]

demographoics:

democRAT 36%
GOP 29%
Ind 34%
other 1%

Typical under sampling of the GOP and over sampling of RATs

[GlockThe Vote]

Romney is running a terrible campaign so far. Shockeningly boring and uninspiring.

[WOSG]

Pollaganda...

“The skew is D+7 with a D/R/I of 36/29/34 among registered voters”

This RV poll is skewed at least 5 points towards Dems vs who will show up in Nov, it RV not LV poll ... so ... in reality, Obama is down by 3.

[Sooth2222]

hat can be seen in the breakout of independents, which favor Romney by four, 48/44. In 2008, when the electorate really did have a D+7 skew, Obama won by seven points and carried independents by eight. Losing independents would mean that Obama would have to get a base turnout that exceeded the 2008 model, which seems extremely unlikely.

These numbers are not good for our first Bolshevik-American president.

[datura]

Bolshevik yes, American no.

[over3Owithabrain]

Romney is holding his fire for the most part. Raising tons of dough and letting the desperate Obama team use up their ammo. Believe me Romney will hit and hit hard. Time is on his side.

[InsidiousMongo]

Hey they for got the “X” in Marist!!!

S/B - MARXIST!

[HamiltonJay]

Well without looking at anything else, it uses “REGISTERED” vs likely, that alone tells you its going to be inaccurate, and almost always by many points to the Dem.

Can’t speak to the rest of hte methodology.

[MrChips]

You didn’t see his speech today in Pittsburgh. He was on fire!

[StAnDeliver]

"Less than one percent backs another candidate, and 6% are undecided."

Incumbent Rule + Acceptable Challenger = 6% break 80% Romney = 2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV = It's over.

[Hotlanta Mike]

Mr. Fix-it or Mr. Broke-it?

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/07/mr_fix-it_or_mr_broke-it.html