Posted on 07/09/2012 11:54:58 AM PDT by tsowellfan
Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowes seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win...
(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...
If Romney wins all of these states , then why shouldn’t we pick up these senate seats? Reagan did it much of this in 980 against many incumbents.
Whose responsibility is it to convince voters that vote splitting is a moron move? (Yes i self-censored)
Yes, because of our sweep of of the three statewide races after Obama was elected and we picked up so many seats that we regained the tie in the state senate and added to our majority in the house. We've been scandal-free and Cuccinelli and McDonnell have been strong conservative standard bearers and poll high as relates to job approval.
Romney takes Virginia and has long coattails. George Allen just has to tame his inner frat-boy and keep the joking to himself. I'm sure he's being stalked again in hopes of another media-induced feeding frenzy which is the only thing that can sink him.
“POLITICO Breaking News
Nevada suddenly looks much better.
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/7/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.
Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.
7/7/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
---|---|---|---|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold/Gain |
NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
IN* | Richard MourdocK | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
AZ* | Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#) | HOLD | |
MO | Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
WI* | Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#) | GAIN | |
ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester* | GAIN |
MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
FL | Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
MI | Primary 8/7/12 | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
HI* | Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#) | GAIN | |
CT* | Primary 8/14/12 | GAIN | |
WA | Primary 8/7/12 | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
*Open Seat +Incumbent #GOP Frontrunner |
Manchin scored an 85% liberal rating in 2011. Why would we want an ultraliberal RINO joining the Senate caucus ?
Rutt Rohhh....DNC plans in NV not looking good.
The House Ethics Committee announced Monday that it will formally investigate Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) over allegations she violated House rules by using her position in Congress to benefit her husbands medical practice.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/236819-ethics-panel-to-investigate-rep-berkley-
I will do whatever I can to help get the vote out for Tom.
____________________________________________________________
BLESS YOU!!!
Oops posted this in the wrong thread, the chart kinda overlapped into the next post on my ping list
My take
NE
AZ
IN
MO
WI (with Tommy T)
ND
NV (maybe should be higher now eh :) )
MT
WI (with a different Republican than Tommy T)
MA
VA
OH
(I think well win the above races, that would make 53)
FL
NM
MI
NJ
ME (it looks bad in polling but I think its a better chance than the below)
PA
HI
CT
WV (wish it was much higher)
WA
One of the fave GOP pick-up lines: “You don’t sweat much for a fat gal.”
Thanks for the encouraging word. We don’t get too many of them around here these days.
Wow! Looks like Heller may be safe in NV and we hold that seat. Great news!
Where, on your chart, is the line drawn where the “Most Likely” “pick-up and holds” ends and the “Less Likely” begins. I’m thinking between Florida and Michigan. Florida and above, I think we have a good chance of taking or holding. Michigan on down.... not so hopeful. Michigan reelected Jenny Granholm Governor when that State was ranked 49th Economically, just above Mississippi. And the dolts reelected her.
Good question. My personal opinion is that NE through MA would fit in the Most Likely, VA through NM would be Toss Ups at this point, and NJ through ME would be early Christmas gifts.
It’s hard to analyze races where the candidates haven’t even been decided yet. By late August, when all candidates are known, we may start to see how things are trending.
It’s early to get a handle on the mood of the electorate. If they’re as ticked off as they were in 2010 - and that may well be the case with Obamacare and the sour economy, we might see trends favoring the GOP.
I agree, Casey is an empty suit.
You’d have to be from WV to understand. I think most West Virginians have been Democrats so long, it’s inherited. They still won’t vote in mass for a Kerry, Gore or Obozo. Any politician that has a whiff of anti-gun sentiment is dead to this state. Same with abortion although not as intense.
What you’re really looking at here is Republicans masquerading as Democrats. They still love the patronage and cronyism. At first glance a Chicago pol would love this place until they figured out even the little old ladies are packing heat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.