>> Arizona has 4.5 million people. Of these, 57.4% are white non-hispanic while 30.1% are hispanic. Have your HS buddy explain how his voting turnout math favors obummer. <<
Arizona may be 30% hispanic on paper, but that doesn't mean 30% of the voters are hispanic. A great many of them are non-citizens or under the age of 18 and ineligible to vote. I read somewhere (don't ask me to quote the source because it escapes me now) that only a quarter of hispanics are eligible to vote, so while do they make a large chunk of the population, they don't make up that big of a chunk of the voter pool.
>> As for the Jewish vote, I don’t think that it is as unachievable for the GOP as you assume. Remember, the GOP doesn’t need to win a majority of the Jewish vote to beat the Democrats; if the GOP got, say, 40% of the Jewish vote <<
Ronald Reagan got a grand total of 31% of the Jewish vote during his 49 state LANDSLIDE victory over Mondale. Nixon got 35% during his 49-state LANDSLIDE, while most Republicans since FDR have averaged between 10-25%. Given those facts, 40% is NOT "doable" even if Obama were to completely self-destruct. Romney could even conceivably win some states inaccessible to Bush like Michigan, but he's not going to top Ronald Reagan's popularity during the height of the Reagan revolution. If, hypothetically, he did win 49 states (which won't happen), I'd expect Romeny to pick up about 1/3rd of the Jewish vote. As I said before, I fully expect Obama could call for Israel to be wiped out and there are oogles of nonpracticing liberal Jews who don't care and will happily support him.
>> And, yes, 40% of the Jewish vote is doable—ask Bob Turner. While Orthodox Jewish voters are a smaller percentage of the Jewish vote outside of NY <<
You just explained why your own scenario won't materialize. Turner was a once-in-a-lifetime fluke, like trying to claim black urban districts are "in play" because Joseph Cao won New Orleans once. Orthodox Jews make up 40% of the "Jewish vote" in Turner's district, but only 10% nationwide. They can't be lumped in all together anymore than claiming the GOP will do well with Rev. Wright's congregation because they're "Christians" just like the "value voters" at evangelical summits. Orthodox Jews are a swing vote and lean conservative. But as I noted, they only account for 10% of Jews. The remaining 90% (Conservative, Reform, reconstructionist, secular, etc.) give between 80%-90% of their votes to the RATs and would probably vote for Yassir Arafat if he ran as a Dem. They're not "in play" for the GOP anymore than the black panthers are.
Fortunately, the Jewish vote is limited to a handful of Congressional Districts in already Democrat states. The only place Jewish votes could make a difference is Florida, though any swing in the Jewish vote would almost certainly be within an even bigger swing by other white voters.
Jews, like Catholics, are important sources of conservative activism and philosophy, but don’t count on their vote as a community.
I know that Hispanics are not 30% of the AZ electorate. But they are 20%. so if McCain had gotten 0% instead of 35% of the Hispanic vote, he would have lost AZ by 51%-47% instead of carrying it by 54%-44%. But, again, there is no chance that Obama will come close to 100% of the Hispanic vote in AZ (he likely won’t exceed 70% no matter how much he panders), so Obama won’t come close to carryng AZ.
As for the Jewish vote, it is silly to use President Reagan’s 1984 landslide as a high-water mark for how a particular demographic group will vote. For example, Reagan did far worse among white voters in Western PA and many other parts of Appalachia than McCain did or Romney will do. So, yes, it is quite possible for Orthodox Jews to be more Republican today than in 1984.