Note to Florida FReepers - Weather Service May Be Very Wrong, TS Debbie May Move Here v. Texas

Friends and Fiends / Weather Guesser Types

[MindBender26]

National Hurricane Center has TS Debby moving west with a landfall in TX. Many think that is wrong.

Keep a watch at NEXRAD, but for what it's worth, my best WAG is 50 kt winds, moving onshore north of Cedar Key, across state then, out into to Atlantic at Amelia Island.

This will be a slow moving storm, so flooding from water accumulation could be a problem. Some areas north of Tampa Bay have already had 4-6 inches of rain.

No guarantee, but worth a watch.

Be safe

[MindBender26]

?

[TonyInOhio]

A timey post. By tonight, or tomorrow morning, the National Hurricane Center will show a landfalling system in Florida, likely north of Tampa. Could even be a weak Hurricane Debby by then.

[UCANSEE2]

I'm pretty sure you are correct. after seeing

[VeniVidiVici]

What do you see coming up that will steer the storm?

[Palmetto Patriot]

[MindBender26]

Just a WAG, but 55 years in Florida... and the aviation weather winds aloft forecast.

[DuncanWaring]

I remember being in Biloxi in 1975; there was a hurricane headed directly for us, and just before hitting us it got redirected to Pensacola, which was not expecting it. They got thrashed.

[MindBender26]

Love your tag line... and Aih-Bone!

[NELSON111]

No they don't...not any more. Current track takes into SE Louisiana. Their forecast discussion makes it very clear they may have to move the track east to FL. And frankly...it's been part of my forecast (I'm a military meteorologist) since before Debby was Debby. Sheared storms like to track towards their convection.

And I imagine the 21Z forecast will be east of the 15z one...probably into AL/MS or the panhandle.

[meyer]

So basically, Debby could hit Dallas?

;)

[TonyInOhio]

The latest Euro model runs show Debby stalling out over the Panhandle area at 72 hours, leading to serious flooding potential. Lousiana is getting prepared, too - Governor Jindal just declared a State of Emergency for potentially major flooding issues.

[NCC-1701]

Debbie does Dallas, huh?

[MindBender26]

The problem is, most anyone under 50 has no idea what we are laughing about!

:)

[MindBender26]

70-80kt then, if Debbie stays offshore long enough to come ashore in FL?

[texanyankee]

We are hoping that Debby does Texas....and leaves us with a wet spot...

[squarebarb]

Yes yes please please. From your keyboard to God’s ear.

(Drying up in the Hill Country)

[small business owner]

Everbody said Charley was going to be a Cat 1 heading to Tampa and ended up hitting us in Punta Gorda as a Cat 4

[Shady]

KEEP IT AWAY FROM NY AND PA! We had enough with Irene and Lee! We are still digging out!

[GOPJ]

If Debby comes back to Florida - makes landfall above St. Petersburg - water will be pushed into Tampa Bay... If that happens we’ll have massive flooding all over this area - no place for the water to exit...

[Dysart]

Watching the latest animated loop and there isn’t much movement, but it does appear to be tracking to the NE. Unless some unseen steering current pushes in another direction, I don’t see a Texas landfall. South Texas could use the rain and DFW would appreciate the cooling cloud cover, so send it over.