Posted on 06/17/2012 5:08:29 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
The Talk Shows
June 17th, 2012
Guests to be interviewed today on major television talk shows:
FOX NEWS SUNDAY (Fox Network): David Plouffe, White House adviser; Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.; former CIA Director Michael Hayden.
MEET THE PRESS (NBC): Plouffe; Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
FACE THE NATION (CBS): Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney; Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; former Gov. Howard Dean, D-Vt.
THIS WEEK (ABC): Plouffe; former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn.
STATE OF THE UNION (CNN): Plouffe; Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo.; Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.; former GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum.
If your name was Ghoolsby do you think you would be stable?
Well the Fox News panel just unanimously applauded Obama’s amnesty plan -— surprise surprise
I used to test the sensitivity to bias by runing a variant where I presumed a +1% bias towards Democrats, so I subracted 1% from the Democrat result and added 1% to the Republican result. If I do that to the current Rasmussen presidential poll, Romney goes from an EV of 257.37 votes to 276.80 votes, or from a 28.95% chance of winning to 67.08% chance of winning.
Being less severe, if I use a +0.5% adjustment, Romney gets an EV of 267.82, or a 48.51% chance of winning.
If I go for broke and test that I don't know what the bias is, but I assume it's a triangle between 0% and 2.5%, with a likely at 1%, Romeny's EV goes to 279.37, with a 70.21% chance of winning.
In the Senate, let's do the same thing.
Adjusting for a 1% bias towards Democrats and a 1% bias against Republicans, the EV goes from 50.37 seats to 52.55 seats, or from a 44.5% chance of winning control to a 96.56% chance of winning control.
Being less severe at a 0.5% bias, the EV is 50.93 seats, or a 64.56% chance of winning control.
With uncertain bias as before, the EV is 52.74 seats, or a 93.26% chance of winning control.
I can play with the range of bias to test the sensitivity of the results, trying a spread with a lower high-side and different likely. When I tried this with McCain in 2008, the +/- 1% bias-adjusted result showed McCain leading the race. After that election, I stopped using the bias adjustement and just went with straight Rasmussen numbers.
-PJ -PJ
Brilliant as usual bray.
I have a different take on public employment although I like your ideas and if implemented they would work very well and may be more doable than mine. Although most anything "we"(anyone from FR) would suggest would be far better than what passes for govt. "service" today. We need to put back the "service" in govt. workers.
My idea that I voiced here some time ago is to go back to public employees who are retired workers who are willing to work for nothing or very little,with benefits that are paid by them 100% simply because they care for and love the country.
Put in enough of them and sublet or outsource to the private industry most govt. jobs that are absolutely necessary. That would create an even stronger private industry in the country instead of constantly increasing the size of a govt. that produces nothing but more and more debt in each and every way.
What do you get if you use the turnouts for WI or 2010?
You just showed me how much difference voter intensity can make. That might explain why the Obama regime is starting to throw hail Mary passes all ready like this Amnesty plan. They know their only hope is to fire up their base so they are thrashing around looking for something that will fire up the Hopey-Changey crowd this year.
I know. It seemed totally bogus. What was the book that kind of summed it up? Can’t remember the title but I read it and Nixon was not the villain he was painted to be.
I'm taking Rasmussen's polling results and converting them into probabilities of winning.
My model assumes that the Rasmussen poll is an accurate reflection of the percentage split of votes on election day, within a plus or minus margin of error. I simulate the margin of error in the poll result.
As far as turnout affects the polling result, I let Rasmussen do that heavy lifting when he determines his poll population and publishes his findings.
-PJ
You’re kidding? The Fox panel supported that? With no reservations about consulting congress.
I just watched the Romney interview with the old geezer.
Shieffer wouldn’t know what to ask without his notepad and he never listened to the answers, but at least he isn’t snarky and mean.
I kept wondering about the critters in the background. I think they were goats.
The goats did not seem to care about the presidential election one way or the other.
They all want amnesty and are happy the kenyan is doing the dirty work. Politics is business and there is big money in supporting amnesty.
Romney won't touch this and will take all the pro-amnesty lobbyist cash to the bank.
JMHO, talking about reducing govt workers is only treating the symptom.
Plus putting the whole project at risk by allowing the discussion to be framed around a case-by-case review of individuals who would promptly wrap themselves in the MSM's protective blanket of Wonderful Person And Poor Little Oppressed Minority Who Only Wants To Do Their Best Work For [Fill in the blank with the current eyewash du jour].
When was the last time any of you were around a School Board election or negotiations for teachers' salaries/benefits that those tactics weren't pulled out of the hat?
(No, EH, I'm not flaming you. I just got bit by this snake before.)
------------------------------
My own take on Reducing This Malignancy (in no particular order of priorities):
1) Revoke that stupid EO that set up government unions. Run the union bosses and their legal teams out of DC and out of ANY contact with the gummint for all time to come.
2) As part of the next budget process, require detailed, written and certified cost/benefit analysis of every person, policy and piece of equipment in the gummint to be collected, summarized and reported (in writing) by the agency, department or whatever is supposed to be in charge. (Those Big Wheels will also, and most especially get to justify their existence. Also in writing. Plus, and this is the best part, they get to do the culling of the herd.)
3) Investigate, prosecute and imprison as required. (Sigh. If, and I really mean IF, there's enough trust left in the legal "profession" account that we wouldn't just throw up our hands and let the Vigilantes Ride....)
-------------------
I might be a tad bit harsh, but that's what engineers generally do:
If it works, it's good. If it don't work, fix it. If it don't "fix", sh**can it and start over.
...right now, I'd grade this project out at Busted Pieces Rolling Everywhere / One Silly Millimeter above the lip of the sh**can.
Plouffffeee is a complete arsssshole with so many DNC talking/chatting points he can't even see straight.What a piece of work.
I saw both interviews, the one with the new skinny DNC Dave and stuffy stephy.Incredibly pathetic. I don't think the guy,Plouffe, answered one question with a straight answer from either dem/dbm moderator.
The class warfare/no trickle down theme is still in play along with how bad the Congress is because they won't bend over for the dear leader who is too busy doihng fund raisers to stop and even talk to congress, who has never compromised and never will.
Its all a huge sham designed to go after Romeny with nothing more than his supposed weak years in Mass. as governor(and supposedly wanting to send 11 million illegals back BS). Of course they always forget to state that he went from 47th to 31st in mass.in job creating in a state where unemployment was below 5%!!!somehow the moderators forget to talk about that as well as no budget in 1,000 days,no energy policy,enormous 5-6 trillion in debt since the regime started, a bad congress for GW in 07 and 08 and a huge litanny of other things that are always ignored including why the sainted O'Kardashian insisted on obamacare when the economy was tanking. Questions that are never asked.
McCain actually gave a great performance saying all the right things to make him look conservative even though we know the minute he gets back in congress all that goes away.
Somehow the left thinks they can slide on class warfare even though they know they could take all the money rich people have and still not balance things out all they would accomplish is to destroy private job creation which one has to imagine is what they are all about to begin with.
There has never been a more clearer picture of a party that depends on big govt. for everything vs. a party that embraces free enterprise.,p> Basically, voters will be voting on capitalism vs. communism. The choice will be theirs.
looks like O'Bozo's henchmen are out-in-force
on the Sunday chattering-class network shows.
maybe...on damage-control / spinning like gyroscope?
I must thank you for that insight.
Somewhere in my muddled mind, what with pre-occupied with my bounding cleverness in the Plouffe satire I crafted, I was beginning to get a notion that what you describe IS what might well have happend.
How intriguing.
So there might not really have been a “leak” inside his administration. Instead the Prez de-classified the stuff and bada boom, it’s perfectly legal to release.
Painting a scenario that had everyone hinted to start leaking refusing to do so and had Obama forced to do that sneaky deed?
I got this right?
Or maybe the Prez and Valerie just came up with that idea on their own, simple thing, Prez says do it and it is done?
Man, I read somewhere that if the Republicans were doing their job they would impeach Obamer.
This is so true.
Indeed I’m thinking that some serious heads up in congress are really concerned, yes some Democrats.
Because this guy is outta control. Why isn’t the opposition part doing to more to stop this out-of-control presidency.
Our founding fathers created a division of powers to deal with this but the found fathers can’t make the congress actually DO it.
This guy and his Attorney Genrl have got to be stopped.
These stats are all going to change when Sarah Palin goes into action!!! We will win the Senate going away!
What about the entire time they have been in office?
Plooufie is “poofing” with Wallace..
He will not answer anything..what a phony, lies through his teeth.
You make excellant points...and while we are at it..can we finally get rid of the Diversity Hiring quotas..all we get is Affirmative Action incomptentents. ( like me who can’t spell, ha).
I agree it has to be at a higher level than indv workers..ie, polices, volume of middle and upper managment, etc. If you just eliminate indv workers, its really impossible in govt to weed out the losers, because the political machine is still in place and its not private, so cost/benefit doesn’t enter into it. There are no criteria for ‘productivity’ or innovation.
That would be John Wesley Dean, IV(?)’s wife Mo or Maureen being possibly a hooker. Another suspected motive was trying to find the “Gemstone file” which had something to do with the reclusive Howard Hughes (he of the long fingernails and Vegas rooftop/penthouse lair).
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.