Replies

Obama's Satanic Hand Signals

King 0 is certainly under the control of evil Satanic powers and perverse demonic entities

Due to the devastating week Obama had last week, and the jobs numbers today going in the wrong direction, still, and based on some of the negative lib comments regarding Obama’s major policy speech today, I am beginning to think Obama could lose the Electoral Vote in numbers equalling McCain’s loss in 2008.

WAYYYY too close. How he gets one single electoral vote completely baffles me.

That’s 512 EC votes. Aren’t there 535?

My brother has had breakfast at the same diner every morning for probably the last 15 years. At 6:00 am, it's usually about the same 25 people or so in there eating. He said he knew Obama was going to win the last time around because that's all people talked about. He and one other guy were the lone Republican votes. He couldn't believe it. This from a pretty conservative area.

Last week as talk turned to Politics, being the shy guy he is (not), my brother stood up and asked how many were voting for the Communist this time around. Silence. So he said, oh, come on, none of you had any problem telling me who you were voting for before. So this informal club of 6:00 am diner goers held an election last week. Where as it was 23-2 Obama over McCain last time around, it was 25-0 Romney as of last week. My brother tells me the diner is never wrong!

How about this guy for VP.....Brian Sandoval?

Please, God... let this be true.

I'm a little late with my Rasmussen analysis of polls, but here is the combined results of the changes over the last two weeks of polling.

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

In Arizona, the race tightens as Obama loses 8.7% to Romney's gain of 0.3%, making this race now a tie. Similarly in Iowa, Obama falls 7.9% while Romney gains 2.6%, putting this race back on the board.The pattern repeats in Michigan, as Obama loses 7.3% as Romney gains 1.1%, putting Michigan back within the margin of error. In Missouri, Obama falls by 3% while Romnay gains 1%. Virginia is the only state where Obama held some ground, gaining 3% to Romney's gain of 2%, making this state a tie. But the pattern repeats again in Wisconsin, where Obama loses 5% as Romney gains 2%, giving Romney the lead here as well.

Watch List:

Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
Colorado: +0.3% (R +0%)
Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

"GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Missouri where their primary has not happened yet, Democrat McCaskill is losing by 12% to her top Republican contender, so this race drops off of the watch list. In Ohio, both candidates gained, Democrat Brown getting 3% to Republican Mandel's 1%. In Virginia, Republican Allen continues to fall against Democrat Kaine, losing another 2% to Kaine's gain of 1%, putting Kaine in the lead.

Watch List:

Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
Missouri 2: +2% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error.
New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

"GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Prob ability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3

-PJ