Rasmussen: Romney 269, Obama 243 (Electoral Votes)

Weekly Standard ^ | 06/14/2012 | JEFFREY H. ANDERSON

[nhwingut]

We’re a long way from November 6 (145 days for those who are keeping score at home), but Rasmussen’s latest polling of likely voters in states across the land shows Mitt Romney currently leading President Barack Obama in the quest for electoral votes. In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie (and an almost inevitable victory in the House of Representatives, where the 50 state delegations would each cast one vote to determine the president).

[MacMattico]

Glad to be of service!

[92nina]

You are a sad individual.

[TomasUSMC]

How about this guy for VP.....Brian Sandoval?

[waus]

It’s not surprising that I feel exactly the same way you do considering our taglines.

[txrangerette]

Did some research on Brian Sandoval and found that he self-identifies as pro-choice.

A Catholic, yet.

Oy vey...

[CPT Clay]

Still 53-43 on Intrade.

[TomasUSMC]

oh. Well let me keep looking at the VP hopeful. Rubio and Walker are two I like. Rubio because of the Latino vote magnet and Walker because Americans like a fighter and a winner.

[MayflowerMadam]

Please, God... let this be true.

[Theodore R.]

PA people are looking for “programs” to assist the downtrodden.

[txrangerette]

I didn’t know that about Sandoval and had heard only glowing reports on him...”a rising star”, etc.

Surprised to find that piece of info...

Rubio is an inspirational speaker and doesn’t need a teleprompter because it seems to come from his heart.

I’m concerned that it’s too soon for Rubio. He’s young and untested, unproven it would seem. Also the fact that he’s Cuban doesn’t necessarily translate into the other Latinos flocking to him. Cubans get to stay here and become citizens because of Castro’s persecution... Others have been known to be envious of that.

About Walker, you have a good point but he’s green, too. A little seasoning might help. Plus, every time he’s asked in interviews about it, he asks Romney to please choose Paul Ryan, not him.

But they will be on the VP list, and there’s lots to weigh in the decision.

[Theodore R.]

Yes, Obama has been “lucky,” but many of our fellow Americans truly believe in luck and don’t like to admit they are fooled.

[txrangerette]

Paul Ryan and Rob Portman will also be on the list, I think.

Probably Bob McDonnell of VA.

Maybe Rick Santorum.

I would like to see Newt and Rick Perry on the list, but I doubt it. These are men of long years of experience and knowledge and are to the right of Romney.

Sarah Palin would be electrifying just being on the list.

I have heard that women will be put on the list because they are women...not only because of that but partially.

The two I’ve heard most about prospectively are Sen. Kelly Ayotte of NH and Gov. Susannah Martinez of NM.

Mitch Daniels would probably be on the list no matter who was nominated.

I’m not touting the people I’ve listed, except for Newt and Perry, just putting names out there I’m hearing, to go with Rubio and Walker.

Is there a chance for Allen West?

Quite a few are hoping there is.

[Woodsman27]

“Obama’s goose is cooked.”

Way too early to get excited. There are a lot of things that can happen between now and November, Romney is not a very strong candidate, and the Obama team will have a lot of dirty tricks up their sleeves. Do not get complacent. Zero is still dangerous and still has a good chance.

[thecodont]

Here's a little tidbit for you.

A local candy store chain sells little tins of novelty mints with various themes. Some of the themes are political in nature.

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=1

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=2

http://www.amusemints.net/retail-tins/collections/patriotic-political/?ccm_paging_p=3

The Political/Patriot selection is updated according to political news and trends. What is selling? What is not selling?

Note the new Tea Party (Bachmann) and Romney tins. One of the Romney tins is disparaging but one is neutral/positive.

Note the many, many BO tins. All positive as shown on the site. And yet...

One new design I saw this afternoon on the shelf--not on the product Web site--was a tin marked with BO's visage and labeled "DissapointMINTS."

[Isabel C.]

No you aren’t, stupid Mitt. You simply stink less than Barack Obama.

That would make a great Romney campaign slogan:

"Vote For Romney - He Stinks Less Than Obama"

[Friendofgeorge]

I am fully expecting major shenanigans out of the Obama labor dept the rest of the way, in all their reporting

[Friendofgeorge]

The VP pick needs to be someone that excites the South enough to rally, while holding their nose at the same time

[HiTech RedNeck]

You are a sad individual.

Yup, Mitt Romney moves me to tears. Saddened, I weep for the country. I'll probably vote for Mitt in order to get Obama out, but will need a box of Kleenex for my eyes and a vise on my nose.

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm a little late with my Rasmussen analysis of polls, but here is the combined results of the changes over the last two weeks of polling.

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

In Arizona, the race tightens as Obama loses 8.7% to Romney's gain of 0.3%, making this race now a tie. Similarly in Iowa, Obama falls 7.9% while Romney gains 2.6%, putting this race back on the board.The pattern repeats in Michigan, as Obama loses 7.3% as Romney gains 1.1%, putting Michigan back within the margin of error. In Missouri, Obama falls by 3% while Romnay gains 1%. Virginia is the only state where Obama held some ground, gaining 3% to Romney's gain of 2%, making this state a tie. But the pattern repeats again in Wisconsin, where Obama loses 5% as Romney gains 2%, giving Romney the lead here as well.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: +0.3% (R +0%)
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Missouri where their primary has not happened yet, Democrat McCaskill is losing by 12% to her top Republican contender, so this race drops off of the watch list. In Ohio, both candidates gained, Democrat Brown getting 3% to Republican Mandel's 1%. In Virginia, Republican Allen continues to fall against Democrat Kaine, losing another 2% to Kaine's gain of 1%, putting Kaine in the lead.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: +2% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error.
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Prob ability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3

-PJ