I saw a poll in the last couple of days that had Barber up by 10. Check Real Clear Politics. I think that’s where I saw it.
I think it is impossible to poll this one.
First of all, it is a special election. So it’s all about turnout. People who vote consistently might not vote this time around, so the Likely Voter models go right out the window.
Secondly, there is the sympathy factor. A lot of people are going to say they support Giffords to a pollster, but may not support Barber in the voting booth. The pollster will make it clear that Barber is Giffords’ successor, but Giffords’ name will not appear on the actual ballot.
At the end of the day, this will be about GOTV. This is true of all elections, but I think it is particularly true here. Ten points in a poll can vanish instantly in a situation like this.