I think it is impossible to poll this one.
First of all, it is a special election. So it’s all about turnout. People who vote consistently might not vote this time around, so the Likely Voter models go right out the window.
Secondly, there is the sympathy factor. A lot of people are going to say they support Giffords to a pollster, but may not support Barber in the voting booth. The pollster will make it clear that Barber is Giffords’ successor, but Giffords’ name will not appear on the actual ballot.
At the end of the day, this will be about GOTV. This is true of all elections, but I think it is particularly true here. Ten points in a poll can vanish instantly in a situation like this.
This past weekend, Tucson was infused with Young Republicans from all over. They rang doorbells and called voters for two days for GOTV. I know of many YRs that came from CA to help Kelly. I hope the polls showing he's down by 10 pts are wrong....
You have to wonder about the interest of folks in this district. They have effectively been without a representative this entire session of Congress, yet didn’t really seem to care that much. If they did care, there would have been an uproar that Giffords was biding her time for so long. It was clear a short time after the shooting that she would be unable to resume her duties, let alone run again.
I guess the people were just showing her deference, but 18 months worth of deference - almost an entire term! - is a mite excessive, IMO.