Posted on 06/06/2012 12:25:27 PM PDT by SmithL
Some of the most competitive House races in California in November could pit Democrats against Democrats, analysts said.
But while state Democrats are likely to pick up a couple of seats in Congress in the general election, Tuesday's primary results will also force left-leaning organizations to think hard about where - and where not - to focus their resources this fall.
The "top two" primary created several Democrat-versus-Democrat races in November that would have been impossible under the previous system. Nationally, that could help Democrats in their efforts to win back 25 congressional seats and regain control of the House. Nonpartisan analysts believe Democrats could pick up as many as five seats in California in November.
While the number of California Democrats in Congress probably will grow, there will be a near-term cost to the party.
Races such as the battle in the East Bay's 15th Congressional District, which will probably pit two Democrats against each other, will divert liberal resources from other parts of California, said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant who has analyzed the demography of California's congressional districts for its redistricting process.
Such intra-party battles will drain Democratic Party money, analysts said. Also, gay rights, labor and environmental grassroots activists will be spread thinner as the Democratic battles splinter their resources.
That will be the case in the San Fernando Valley race between longtime Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman. They have spent a combined $5 million on their primary race - a total that the deep-pocketed congressmen will multiply by November.
Another race likely to be affected will be the 15th District Democrat-on-Democrat face-off between Rep. Pete Stark, D-Fremont, and Alameda County prosecutor and Dublin City Councilman Eric Swalwell, who dueled in Tuesday's primary.
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
I want to smack the idiot voters who passed this law.
WTH were they thinking.
We now have house races with R running against R and D running against D.
The parties no longer are able to choose their own representative.
I just don’t know how this can even be legal. The party (any of them) should be able to chose who they want to represent them.
This method of voting completely eliminates “other” parties.
How does the “top two” scheme effect write in candidates? Could a district that is say 55% Democrat with 2 Democrat candidates be won by a Republican who gets 45% of the November vote as a write-in, against the two Dems splitting the 55%?
This would be such sweet justice for the clowns who put this in place.
As a result of the “top 2” format, a seat that was rated as “lean Democrat” in California (CA-31) will be contested by two Republicans in the fall. As the top 2 were both GOP.
Good question. I don’t even know if its allowed.
All I know right now is that the top two vote getter go on to November.
I guess the good thing is that dems will waste money fighting each other as they scream to be more liberal than the other guy.
On good thing in my district, Losis Capps got only 45% of the vote and the other two Republicans got 54% combined, so now that one is gone I would be happy if the one left got all 54% and she lost by 9 points.
Never mind 54%, I’d be happy if the Republican left standing (Abel Maldonado) got 51% in November and sent Capps packing. Maldonado may be a RINO, but he’d be far preferable to Capps.
BTW, looking at the results from yesterday’s primary, I don’t see where liberals get off claiming that the CA redistricting and jungle-primary format will net them up to 5 seats. I think it’s far likelier that the *GOP* will pick up 3 or 4 seats in CA; remember, the GOP is down to only 19 Representatives from CA, so if the Dems end up with a 30-23 delegation from CA (which is, IMHO, very possible), it will be a net loss of 4 seats for the Dems.
The “independent” redistricting commission, where most of the “unaffiliated” members were Democrat operatives who just happened to favor maps that benefitted the Democrats, got too greedy and didn’t draw enough safe Democrat districts in order to give the Dems a shot at winning more districts overall. For example, it tried to protect both Costa and McNerney, and I think both will end up losing in November. Also, it drew a Hispanic-majority CA-21 that was more concerned with optimizing the number of Bakersfield Democrats than the number of Hispanics, but the Dem favorite for the seat decided not to run and Republican David Valadao got a whopping 57% in the primary and should win easily. While the map won’t be a total disaster for the Dems on par with the 1992 map drawn by GA Democrats (which resulted in a 9-1 Democrat delegation in 1992 become an 8-3 Republican delegation by 1995), I think it will leave many Democrats as confused as they were last night when they saw the Wisconsin voting results come in.
Sounds good to me.
Nice... I love it!!
Rothenberg has a good analysis of the CA situation. He’s moved several of the competitive seats toward the GOP side.
The Rothenberg Political Report’s analysis is a solid one. Republicans may make gains against the odds, due to some good recruitment.
Excellent, thanks for the link.
That’s actually a great question on write ins. Remember that San Diego mayoral race? It was a 2 top 2 non-partisan runoff between 2 Republicans, there were a large amount of write in votes for a democrat and they were counted for some reason.
My analysis of these Cali seats some months ago was based in large part on the 2008 potus numbers (still don’t have more accurate 2004 #s). The number of seats were are sure to win is less than the number we have now. I counted 14 safe and 3 lean GOP. That would be -2 from our current seat total of 19. But there are many other seats we could win so we could post a gain. Especially if Romney does respectably in the state. That crap Maldonado who helped pass this stupid scheme is one possible gain, not saying I don’t support him over Capps but I hate his guts.
Valadao’s 57% is excellent, I guess that goes in the safe column then, that was one of my 3 leaners.
Maldonado is horrible, Capps is horrible and stupid as pudding.
The only benefits I can see in Maldonado winning are committee assignments, and over all increase in “R” numbers.
Not much of a choice, who is the write in you are talking about? I haven’t heard there is anyone else that could come close.
The San Diego race I’m talking about is the one from 2004 with Dick Muprhy and Donna Frye. That race was a runoff between Murphy and another Republican, Ron Roberts who placed first and second in the non-partisan primary that Frye did not run in. For some reason write in votes were allowed and Frye almost won. Maybe the rules are different for non-partisan primaries in CA, there are certainly no write-ins in Louisiana runoffs or any other runoff I’ve ever heard of in any other state or country.
Anyway stop the presses, there are no rat/rat runoffs in any seat we would could win anyway. But Rep Gary Miller will face State Sen Bob Dutton (R) for 31st district which Obama won by 15 points!!!
Eat it democrats!! That makes me so happy I can’t express it in words.
More
CD 1 Safe R seat: State Sen Doug La Malfa will face a rat, Sam Aanestad placed third.
CD 3: Rat Garamendi got 52.5%. Rothenberg reveals to me that Bush carried this seat in 2004. We have a strong candidate in Colusa County Supervisor Kim Dolbow Vann. Good pickup oppo.
CD 7: Targeted Republican Dan Lungren got 53% in his GOP leaning seat.
CD 8: Safe GOP seat will see a GOP/GOP runoff.
CD 9: In a seat that was slightly more pro-bama than the 3rd district 2 Republicans combined for over 50% against rat Jerry McNerney! Our candidate is former board of education member Ricky Gill who sounds like an impressive young man.
CD 10: GOP Leaning seat. Rep Denhem got under 50% but Chad Condit, yes that’s Gary Condit’s son got 15% as a nonpartisan so it’s not like the rats outpaced Denhem. I don’t expect to lose this but can’t call it safe.
CD 12: Queen Nancy faces a Republican in her ultra safe seat, I thought there was a good chance of a rat/Green party runoff but the Green only got 5% to the GOPer’s 14%.
CD 15: Scumbag Pete Stark faces another rat in a safe rat district. This is actually a good thing cause maybe he’ll lose, he got 42% of the primary vote. No Republican even ran.
CD 16: 3 Republicans combined for about 49% against Portuguese Rep. Jim Costa in a Hispanic heavy district. Our candidate is an Anglo, Brian Whelan. We have a chance. Rothenberg moved it from safe D to likely. He should have never had it safe, this is seat that Boxer narrowly lost to Fiorina in ‘10 Senate race.
CD 21: Valadao as mentioned got 57% and the rat is in debt!!!
CD 24: RINO Maldanado and Robert Mitchum’s son got over 50% against rat Lois Crapps.
CD 26: GOPer Tony Strickland got 44%. And a RINO running as an indie took 18.5%. So rats got 37.5%. Rothenberg says lean R. Good thing the RINO didn’t place second, rats would have elected her in November.
CD 30: The Berman/Sherman rat heavyweight title fight is going the full 12 rounds. Watch 2 democrats spend money against each other in November for a safe rat seat, fun. I endorse the rare double KO.
CD 31: The already mentioned Miller seat. Though he doesn’t currently Represent any of it, the State Senator does. I don’t know who to prefer. :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
CD 35: Safe rat seat, Joe Baca faces another Hispanic rat.
CD 36: Mary Bono Hack got 58%, should be safe RINO.
CD 41: Open seat GOPers combined for 55%. I said lean rat months ago. Rothenberg says tossup/tilt D today. Good chance.
CD 44: Super safe rat seat, 2 lady rat incumbents. Jewish Janice Hahn got 60% and Black Laura Richardson got 40%, no one else ran. Women’s undercard for Berman/Sherman! Will Richardson try to bite Hahn’s ear?
CD 46: Loretta Sanchez got 51% in a seat with a similar partisan balance to her previous one. She faces GOP stockbroker Jerry Hayden. We have a chance though top tier candidate Van Tran did not come close to Sanchez in 2010.
CD 47: Lean D seat based on past election results and 10 point rat registration edge ; RINO Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong got 29% and will face elderly (71) rat State Senator Alan Lowenthal who got 34%. Former GOP Congressman Steve Kuykendall got 11%. Total GOP vote was over 50%.
CD 52: Bilbray’s competitive seat. Total GOP votes slightly outpaced total rat votes. Unfortunatly it looks like the more moderate major democrat placed second. Rothenbergs says tossup tilt R
Math time
CD’s 1, 4, 8, 21!, 22, 23, 25, 31!!!!, 36, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, and 50 are safe R. That’s 15 seats.
I can’t imagine losing CD 10. CD 7 I don’t see Lungren losing either. That’s 17.
Costa and Sanchez will be though to beat, D favored. Pencil them in. Sanchez is the tougher of the 2.
7 remaining seats in play are open GOP seat where Strickland looks strong (Roth says lean R now). GOPer Bilbray who I think will win, Rats Garemendi/McNerney/Capps and the open 41st and 47th districts. In all but the Garemendi district Republicans got more primary votes than rats.
Anywhere from -1 seats to +5 looks like the likely range for Republicans.
Great job!
I don’t see how Democrats get off saying that they can pick up 5 net seats in CA. Absolutely ridiculous.
District 8 is interesting, with Assemblyman Paul Cook, a retired Marine officer and former Yucca Valley Mayor faces off against Gregg Imus, a member of the state Minutemen, a citizen border security patrol, and a former legislative aide. Both seem like good choices.
District 31: Definitely Bob Dutton, not some ethically-challenged carpetbagger trying to hang on to his post and perks.
http://www.citizensforethics.org/pages/representative-gary-miller-california/
District 44: This urban Riverside/Corona district leans to the Democrats, but Republicans scored a recuiting coup while Democrats were unable to get their first choice to run for this or the state Senate.
Isn’t CA-44 the Hahn/Richardson CD? Which is the Riverside/Corona CD of which you speak?
Wrong number, it’s District 41.
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