Silver notes:
_______________________-
Democrats have made various claims that Mr. Barrett might overperform his polls – citing, for instance, what they say is a superior turnout operation.
These claims need to be weighed against the long actuarial odds of a candidate who is down by this amount in the consensus of polls coming back to win at the last minute.
Campaigns that are down by about this margin in the polls often say that there is some dynamic that the polls are not capturing. Sometimes they are making reasonable arguments, and sometimes they are just spinning. But either way, these factors are rarely enough to allow the candidate to overcome the deficit. The exceptional cases are often remembered precisely because they are rare events.
It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.
You people trashed the Capital building, ran up expenses, and now you need to pay up.
He doesn’t have a 95% chance of winning. That’s the NYT increasing expectations so that if he loses they can call it a “shocking upset” which bodes ill for Romney.
Twelve points, baby. Plus or minus 2.
So, do you think that Obama sent in Holder’s DOJ to monitor the election in Milwaukee tomorrow, to assuage the feelings of abandonment of the union organizers?
Is it all for show, or does Obama really think that Holder can pull this out of the hat with accusations of disenfranchisement of minorities?
Kick a$$, write down leftist names. Is there another way?
There are re three important factors in this election.
1. Turnout.
2. Turnout.
3. And finally, most importantly, turnout.
Don't be to optimistic. The voter fraud will be incredible. It will be a warm-up for the Nov. election.
I also bet that there will be court challenges if Walker wins. Challenges that will last for many months and will neuter any ability for Walker to govern.
He’s up to 94.5% on Intrade. That’s up from 92.1% around noon.
All I ask is who should pay for this frivolous childish tantrum foisted on Wisconsin taxpayers once Walker wins. My Northern Wisconsin parents are 75 years old, rural, and they will help foot the bill for this irrational liberal tantrum. Will Wisconsin voters punish the democrat party this upcoming November? I’m sick and tired of the teacher’s unions, out-of-touch Dane County elitist’s, and Milwaukee County entitlement whore’s not respecting the will of the rest of the state. And for what? You are not the people I remember growing up with in northern Wisconsin.
They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.
Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!
They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.
Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!