Posted on 06/04/2012 4:58:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Two polls released over the weekend suggest that Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, remains the clear favorite to win Tuesday’s recall election.
Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race. We have not officially released a forecast for the race, but Mr. Walker’s lead of about six points would translate into almost a 95 percent chance of victory if we used the same formula we did to evaluate gubernatorial races in 2010, which derives its estimates from the historical accuracy of gubernatorial polls over the past 15 years.
One of the new polls over the weekend, from Public Policy Polling, which conducts polling on behalf of Democratic clients as well as publishes its own polls independently, showed a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Walker’s Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, having closed his deficit to three percentage points. However, the firm has showed somewhat more favorable results for Mr. Barrett than other polling firms, and this reflected a relatively minor change from the firm’s previous poll, which had Mr. Walker ahead by five percentage points.
At the same time, the Public Policy Polling survey had Mr. Walker at 50 percent of the vote and had very few undecided voters. The presence of undecided voters tends to correlate with higher unpredictability on Election Day, while the absence of them, as in this case, means that even a small lead is more likely to hold up.
Another poll from We Ask America, which is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and often shows Republican-leaning results, had a larger lead, 12 points, for Mr. Walker. There had been no change from the firm’s prior poll, which also had Mr. Walker 12 points ahead.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Silver notes:
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Democrats have made various claims that Mr. Barrett might overperform his polls – citing, for instance, what they say is a superior turnout operation.
These claims need to be weighed against the long actuarial odds of a candidate who is down by this amount in the consensus of polls coming back to win at the last minute.
Campaigns that are down by about this margin in the polls often say that there is some dynamic that the polls are not capturing. Sometimes they are making reasonable arguments, and sometimes they are just spinning. But either way, these factors are rarely enough to allow the candidate to overcome the deficit. The exceptional cases are often remembered precisely because they are rare events.
It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.
You people trashed the Capital building, ran up expenses, and now you need to pay up.
Bump
He doesn’t have a 95% chance of winning. That’s the NYT increasing expectations so that if he loses they can call it a “shocking upset” which bodes ill for Romney.
Twelve points, baby. Plus or minus 2.
I think there are lots of voters who tell pollsters they will vote for Barrett but in the confines of the voting booth will vote for Walker. I’d be surprised if Walker doesn’t outperform the average of the polls.
So, do you think that Obama sent in Holder’s DOJ to monitor the election in Milwaukee tomorrow, to assuage the feelings of abandonment of the union organizers?
Is it all for show, or does Obama really think that Holder can pull this out of the hat with accusations of disenfranchisement of minorities?
Perhaps I missed it, but in the list of cities the DOJ are going to be monitoring, Milwaukee was not one of them.
Perhaps I missed it, but in the list of cities the DOJ are going to be monitoring, Milwaukee was not one of them.
Kick a$$, write down leftist names. Is there another way?
There are re three important factors in this election.
1. Turnout.
2. Turnout.
3. And finally, most importantly, turnout.
Don't be to optimistic. The voter fraud will be incredible. It will be a warm-up for the Nov. election.
I also bet that there will be court challenges if Walker wins. Challenges that will last for many months and will neuter any ability for Walker to govern.
He’s up to 94.5% on Intrade. That’s up from 92.1% around noon.
Holder is there to put the stamp of official credibility on baseless accusations of voter fraud.
These accusations will be used to gin up anger against the republicans and cash and enthousiasm for Obama among his currently disinterested base.
The show trials that Holder will conduct will also be a distraction during the next 5 months from Obama’s dismal economic record.
All I ask is who should pay for this frivolous childish tantrum foisted on Wisconsin taxpayers once Walker wins. My Northern Wisconsin parents are 75 years old, rural, and they will help foot the bill for this irrational liberal tantrum. Will Wisconsin voters punish the democrat party this upcoming November? I’m sick and tired of the teacher’s unions, out-of-touch Dane County elitist’s, and Milwaukee County entitlement whore’s not respecting the will of the rest of the state. And for what? You are not the people I remember growing up with in northern Wisconsin.
They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.
Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!
They reference Milwaukee county as the reason for A Barrett win.
Charles Manson would win Milwaukee county if he ran as a dimocrat!
If so, you can bet the cry of "LET THE RECOUNTS BEGIN!" will ring throughout the state - especially in the cities.
If Walker wins, the only benefit Democrats can get out of the dog and pony show they have manufactured is to throw doubt on the outcome and tie it all up in court.
If Walker doesn’t blow out Barrett by at least 10 points, there will be countless accusations of voter intimidation, faulty machines, faulty counting, ballot box stuffing, hanging chads, you name it.
If they can get a sympathetic judge to hold up the results, they can stretch this thing out for months and prevent Walker from riding a headwind into November.
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