The Arab Spring was no prelude to democracy

Daily Telegraph (UK) ^ | 8:04PM BST 31 May 2012 | Con Coughlin

[Olog-hai]

The rush to back change for change’s sake in the troubled region of North Africa has proven somewhat naïve. …

The accommodation of the Islamist-orientated An-Nahda (The Renaïssance) movement in Tunisia’s new coalition government has been achieved without jeopardizing the foundations of the country’s secular constitution. Even so, only last weekend hundreds of Islamist rioters went on the rampage, attacking bars and shops that sell alcohol, a turn of events that is unlikely to boost Tunisia’s attractiveness to Western holidaymakers.

Elsewhere, the omens are even less encouraging. Eight months after Colonel Gaddafi’s brutal murder, Libya remains in thrall to the warring bands of militias—some of them al-Qaeda acolytes—who are determined to hold on to their independent fiefdoms rather than embrace the cause of democratic reform Libyans were promised if they supported the dictator’s overthrow.

In neighboring Egypt, meanwhile, where the defiant protests in Tahrir Square last year fostered the belief that wholesale democratic reform was about to sweep the Arab world, the choice for 50 million voters is between the military and the Islamists, two groups not renowned for their commitment to democracy.

This depressing pattern is repeated throughout the region. The political instability in Yemen following President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s retirement has resulted in a dramatic upgrade in al-Qaeda’s terrorist capabilities, while attempts by Bahrain’s ruling family to reconcile their differences with Shia Muslim dissenters have been undermined by the pernicious involvement of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, whose long‑term ambition is to achieve the overthrow of the country’s Sunni Muslim monarchy.

So much, then, for the “Arab Spring”, which, as I have consistently argued, is an intellectually flawed concept dreamt up by those who conveniently overlook the forces at play in Arab countries. …

[aruanan]

The Arab Spring was no prelude to democracy

Hey, Barry Obama. We're going to have a new American Spring this fall.

[Vermont Lt]

Not a prelude to democracy? I am shocked, I tell you....shocked.

And is that gambling over there at Rick’s?

[sergeantdave]

” meanwhile, you “trot out” no proof at all that contradicts the statements of myself and Kaufman”

What makes you think that you and Kaufman are credible?

In your little world, everyone in the Middle East is Al Quada or a sympathizer.

And the fact that al-Juwali has reorganized the army to include militias, and has used that army to take on al-Quada militias contradicts your opinion that al-Juwali is al-Quada.

There’s nothing in al-Juwali’s background or actions that connects him to al-Quada.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_al-Juwali

You apparently don’t have the acumen to explore other possibilites that are outside your world view. Al-Juwali’s military leadership is keeping a lid on the pot and preventing it from boiling over.

[Olog-hai]

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What makes you think that you and Kaufman are credible?

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You’re talking like a liberal plant now, trying to put words in my mouth that I did not say (figuratively). Your attempts at defanging the term “Islamist” say as much.

If you have any evidence (beyond Wikiliberalism) that al-Juwaili is not an Islamist who wants to put Libya under strict Sharia law (which makes him, as I said before, the equivalent of al-Qaeda), let’s see it. Otherwise, I’m sticking with the political candidate’s statement on this one. And as far as Libya goes, who wants the lid on the pot so that they can get sufficiently organized to attack the West again—or even worse, to ally with Iran as Egypt is doing?

[sergeantdave]

This is real easy to solve.

You think al-Juwaili is an al-Queda plant or whatever.

I think you’re wrong.

This disagreement between you and me is easy to solve.

Elections are coming up in Libya, and I think I know the interim government and the Libyan people better than you.

I’ll predict that the new government will not be made up of the Muslim Brotherhood, as in Egypt, nor will it be a government that is loving al-Queda. I’ll further predict that the new Libyan government will pass a set of free trade initiatives that will copy the UAE model, creating an international merchant and trade center in Tripoli that will mirror Dubai.

You make your analysis and a prediction of what the Libyan government will look like after the people vote. I’ve been very detailed in my prediction. Try to do the same in yours.

Then we’ll see who’s right.

Deal?