Impending Market Dislocation? (PNSN)

If we get another MF Global folks the market will drop 5,000 DOW points and not bounce, as that will be that -- in the grains, in the commodities, in everything.

I have no idea what their [Penson(PNSN)] liquidity position actually looks like. All I know is what I see in their stock price. But this does not look good, and as Ann points out there is now history with MF Global and the CME refusing to make good when their oversight fails and customer funds "disappear."

In short don't expect that you're safe if Penson blows because there is no evidence you will be safe, and plenty of evidence that once again CME will step back and refuse to accept any responsibility for anything that happens to your money.

Now it's certainly possible that Penson could go under but customer funds would be protected and fine. That's ok if that happens -- businesses fail all the time.

But as I said at the time MF Global went down and customer funds were lost, if it happens again there will be no confidence remaining in the market, the break will be immediate and disastrous, and it is entirely possible that the proprietary trading of all brokerages will unwind and you will discover that there is no such thing as a safe brokerage in which to trade or invest as it is entirely possible that we will discover that all such banks and brokerages have enough proprietary exposure that they will all fail and you will lose all your money.

That simply must be the assumption you make until and unless it's proved otherwise at this point in time.

I’ve talked about the SHTF since about 2006. I even bought a farm in central KY two weeks before Obama was elected. I moved there (here) from my home of 45 years, Seattle, last August.

It is like paradise for us here. But I was thinking last week. I mean really meditating on it, that the day of reckoning really is coming. I really DO believe it. But I think of it kind of the way a 20 something thinks of dying. That is, though it is inevitable, you DON’T think about it.

Well, the difference is that you really CAN prepare for this to some degree. And I realized we were sort of “playing” at preparing. We’ve now doubled down as if it is something we can actually see coming, like those black storm clouds you keep looking at as you try to get all the things that can be damaged by rain out of your yard into the garage.

I’m rambling, but I think you get where I am going with this. I’ve talked about the SHTF moment, but it was always in the vein of “some day”. Well, I now see it as “it could be today or tomorrow. The evidence just keeps piling up and even us Preppers can put ourselves in a state of denial. Part of it is that although we believe it will be very bad, it will be SO bad that we want to imagine that it is just “always six months away.” It concerns me that it may come like this, even to us Preppers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFufoOgCMW8

Thanks.

I've always appreciated your openess and honesty. Keep it up, it compliments you.

I've found that almost every time I have a date when something is suppose to happen....it winds up being further in the future than I had anticipated. This delay is caused by 'kicking the can' down the road.

A Day Of Reckoning is in our future and I encourage all to prepare. I don't know when because I don't know all the ways that the can will/can be kicked.

No Way Back

—It seems like it takes forever, until the eventful day arrives, then things become a blur. —

Exactly. It’s why I posted that video in the second post. ;)

It’s a funny video, but it does reflect my real concern for what may happen.

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