Simple math.
Newt Gingrich has 140 delegates so far. If he loses 49 more delegates, he is officially mathematically eliminated. To win, he has to win 1004 out of 1053 remaining delegates. That’s 95%. Its over for Newt.
Romney has 656 delegates — and New England hasn’t even voted yet. NY, Penn, RI, Delaware are this week. NY (95 delegates) and Connecticut (28 delegates) become winner-take-all if Romney breaks 50% (which he will). Delaware (17 delegates) is winner take all.
Those three will put Romney at 796 by themselves. Tuesday should put Romney at or above 900 delegates.
After Tuesday, California (WTA, 172 delegates), New Jersey (WTA, 50 delegates) and Utah (WTA, 40 delegates), still won’t have happened. That’s another 262 right there.
Just those winner-take-all States (NY, Conn, Delaware, NJ, CA, Utah) that are sure-thing Romney wins will put Romney at 1058 of 1144. He’ll get more than enough votes in the proportional states to make up the 86 remaining delegates he needs.
Its over because its over. Not magic. Just math. There is no path to victory for Newt, and no way Romney won’t get to 1144.
SnakeDoc
How did you calculate Romney’s current delegates? Bound/unbound? Proportional for states which are required to be proportional?
NY and CT become winner-take-all if Romney EVER breaks 50%, or if he’s at 50% when their election takes place?
Are there no pro-life Republicans in the states that you say are sure-fire Romney wins? None of them who realize that Romneycare will be a millstone around our neck in November, and that suppression of the conservative vote is electoral catastrophe not only for the Presidential election but also for down-ballot elections? No CAtholics, for heaven’s sake?
You’re assuming that Romney will win every winner-take-all state and that he will get enough to pass 50% WITHOUT COUNTING NY and CT’s states as WTA so that NY and CT will become WTA.
IOW, you are giving the best-case scenario for Romney as if it’s a given.
In reality, even if Romney takes all the WTA states, Romney would have to get from middle America 86 delegates PLUS whatever proportional votes Newt gets in NY and CT in order to pass 50% and thus get all of NY and CT’s delegates.
And all the unbound delegates would have to stay with Romney.
If the number of delegates you gave for Romney is the number that the GOP-e has claimed Romney has (based on law-breaking by the GOP-e and not based on the actual law) then the hurdle for Romney is even larger.
What you’ve presented is where everything falls for Romney, and you’re presenting it as if it is inevitable. I don’t believe that it is.