Call me crazy, but I think if Obama is on the ballot in November, it will be a blowout of epic proportions, that makes the Democrat losses in 2010 look like nothing but a Preview of Coming Attrations.
Far more likely, IMHO, the Democrats pull a Torricelli Switch and get Obama off the ballot. Nobody is going to want to ride his coat-tails to defeat.
1. If Zero is forced off, then that demographic turnout will be very low and very bitter. It may depress their turn out for future elections also.
2. If Zero leaves voluntarily say to ‘spend more time with his family’ then the turn out will still be suppressed. Depending on how its spun will depend on the level of suppression.
Both of the above options are very bad for the Rats, it could cost them some more legislative seats, maybe a governorship or two, some state legislators, etc in swing districts. That's why I don't think it will happen. Also Zero's ego wouldn't let him do that! They are stuck with him, all they can do is pray for a miracle. (Like a huge GOP gaffe, something Romney (if its Romney!) could easily do!) I think they will just ride out this storm and blame his defeat on racist America.
If the trend continues and Romney is leading the polls by the time their convention rolls around I will gurantee that Biden gets his walking papers and Hilary is brought out to save them.....
So, is that going to happen inside the next ~60 days before the USSC rules on Obamacare or in the 120 days before the election and after the USSC votes down Obamacare?
If he's off the ballot and it gets to linked to a consequence of his defeat at USSC, I'd dare any (D) to slink their ass on to that ballot.
I ask you what could any other (D) possibly run on and cull together an ample-enough following and media push for in just 120 days?
Assuming defeat in the USSC, holding the (D) nomination for any one this time around will be radioactive.
If USSC upholds it, you'll have no greater motivator to get (R)'s to the polls to make sure Obamacare dies in 2013.
FReegards!
I agree. As obama gets more divisive and petulant - he is going to turn off even more people.
At this point the midterms are going to look like NOTHING compared to what is coming as the economy goes back in the toilet.
Dream on.
Regarding your last point, the real sign to watch as we get closer to November is the number of Dem politicans avoiding being seen with Obama. This will tell the tale better than any polls.