>>That statement assumes that the F-35 actually enters service.<<
The F-35 JSF is the perfect example of the old adage that a camel is a mouse built to government specifications.
It was a great idea — combine the F/16 and F(A)/18 into a single low cost homogeneous platform — basically make a Southwest Airways maintenance model. Make it better than the rest but not the best of the best (that was supposed to be the F-22).
And I was its biggest fan.
They screwed that up so badly that the F-35 being built doesn’t even resemble what was envisioned. Billions of dollars thrown away with no discernible ROI.
As I said before, the stalwart F/16 and FA/18 are good for another 20 or 30 years until the US Government decides it really wants a real MRF platform. I don’t think this “search” will result in one.
I would add to your excellent post that the F-22 line should be re-started. There is simply nothing out there or in the planning/development stages that comes close to it.