Wisconsin's place on the electoral map: GOP's top blue-state target?

JS Online ^ | 4-16-12 | Craig Gilbert

[afraidfortherepublic]

Wisconsin is one of nine swing states that will determine the 2012 presidential race, according to this analysis of the electoral map by the Washington Post’s political blog, “The Fix.”

The others are Ohio and Iowa in the Midwest; New Hampshire in the Northeast; Virginia, North Carolina and Florida further down the Atlantic Coast, and Colorado and Nevada in the West.

Wisconsin is the only state on this list that Democrats have won in each of the past three elections (in fact Democrats have won the state in six straight elections).

Of the nine states on this list, it’s also where Obama had his biggest victory margin four years ago (14 points).

Lists like this involve some judgment calls, at least until the 2012 ad wars are under way and we can see exactly where both sides are spending their TV money. As Post writer Chris Cillizza notes, Republicans would add Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico to the mix, which would give you the same 12 states that comprise Gallup’s battleground list.

But the Post’s shorter nine-state list does reflect something important about Wisconsin’s electoral role. If you define “blue states" as states that Democrats have regularly won in recent presidential races, then Wisconsin may well be the GOP’s top blue-state target in 2012. Its main competitors for that distinction are Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have also voted Democratic at least five elections in a row. But most analysts in both parties I’ve talked to think Michigan and Pennsylvania are tougher pick-ups for the GOP than Wisconsin.

[afraidfortherepublic]

Wisconsin Blue State target ping

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.

[Thunder90]

It really depends on how the recalls go. If the Dems win, this state will be written off.

[Sopater]

Democrats have won the state in six straight elections

Wisconsin is recovering from the "blue-state blues".

[no dems]

It really depends on how the recalls go. If the Dems win, this state will be written off.
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And it should be. If I was a member of GOP hierarch, I would not spend one dime in WI if the Unions and Dems win big in the Recall Election. Use that money in FL and PA. I’m betting the GOP takes both of those in 2012.