Whimsically, I've suggested that taxpayers give a state-of-the-art robot to every graduating high school senior.
Program it, re-engineer it, duplicate it in any way you like, then set it loose in the work force, where it, or a whole army of it's, go to work for you each day, or manage your business.
The math seems basic.
If robotic productivity doubles each decade - probably an underestimate - in 100 years robots will be 500 times more productive than today.
By 2112, it seems likely that a cost competitive robot or machine will be available for almost every blue collar job that exists in the world economy today.
You mentioned robotic vehicles.
I think your time line may be a bit short, but the consequences will be enormous.
I have to believe that car wrecks and injuries will decline dramatically.
That will impact health care jobs, insurance jobs, vehicle repair jobs, even law enforcement jobs.
Coming sooner will be “Cloud Computing.”
The economies of scale will be staggering.
I have to believe that corporate IT jobs will stagnate, or maybe even decline in coming decades.
Further up the food chain there's the IBM “Watson Computer” that beat the two best “Jeopardy” players in the world.
How long can it be before a Physician's Assistant with a computer can do the work of a medical doctor?
How long can it be before a Registered Nurse with a “Da Vinci Surgical System” can do the work of a surgeon?
Economically, long term, a century in the future, I am much more optimistic than you.
I see the possibility that only 20% or so of the world's best minds and best workers will be in the work force.
The other 80% will be drawing a dividend check from billions of machines and robots, much the same way that Alaska residents draw dividend checks from their oil wells.
Short term, the next decade or so, I'm very pessimistic.
There is no calm, painless way to claw our way out of massive government debt, massive unfunded liabilities, and massive money printing.
I quite agree. Which is why I would be very interested in a calm, rational discussion by economists of what is the least disruptive way to make it to the other side.
Despite looking, I have been unable to find any such discussion.
I see the possibility that only 20% or so of the world's best minds and best workers will be in the work force. The other 80% will be drawing a dividend check from billions of machines and robots, much the same way that Alaska residents draw dividend checks from their oil wells.
If I remember rightly, Murray et all discussed this in The Bell Curve. Among huge other consequences for society, it will exactly reverse the social status markers that have existed forever.
Not so much in USA, but certainly in Europe it was always a status marker to NOT work. This demonstrated you were a member of the gentry.
In the near-distant future, having a "real job" will demonstrate extreme intelligence and creativity.
More critically, what does that 80% of the population DO with their time? Most people do not handle massive amounts of leisure time well. As can be seen by the histories of lottery winners.
I'm really curious about these issues, but with the exceptions of some SF writers, there is almost no discussion of them.
Also, your scenario would seem to require the end of a market based economy, as otherwise why would the 20% share the wealth they produce more or less equally with the other 80%?