I quite agree. Which is why I would be very interested in a calm, rational discussion by economists of what is the least disruptive way to make it to the other side.
Despite looking, I have been unable to find any such discussion.
I see the possibility that only 20% or so of the world's best minds and best workers will be in the work force. The other 80% will be drawing a dividend check from billions of machines and robots, much the same way that Alaska residents draw dividend checks from their oil wells.
If I remember rightly, Murray et all discussed this in The Bell Curve. Among huge other consequences for society, it will exactly reverse the social status markers that have existed forever.
Not so much in USA, but certainly in Europe it was always a status marker to NOT work. This demonstrated you were a member of the gentry.
In the near-distant future, having a "real job" will demonstrate extreme intelligence and creativity.
More critically, what does that 80% of the population DO with their time? Most people do not handle massive amounts of leisure time well. As can be seen by the histories of lottery winners.
I'm really curious about these issues, but with the exceptions of some SF writers, there is almost no discussion of them.
Also, your scenario would seem to require the end of a market based economy, as otherwise why would the 20% share the wealth they produce more or less equally with the other 80%?
I don't see the prevailing political sentiments of the West changing in the next century.
I just see that our technology infrastructure will finally catch up to the financial demands of the voting majority.
Good point about billions of people with too much leisure time.
Maybe we can pretend they are all college humanities professors on sabbatical?
That would preserve their self-esteem at any rate.
Re: Picking nits
I originally wrote 1000X, then thought, “No, we lose the first decade because it takes ten years to double.”
I have rechecked my math - which means, in my case, that I have counted all the doublings on my fingers.
You are correct.