Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Santorum details new delegate math
The Examiner ^ | 28 Mar 12 | Byron York

Posted on 03/29/2012 6:03:37 PM PDT by xzins

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last
To: xzins
Yob believes Romney will end up with 23 delegates in Florida and 14 in Arizona, for a combined loss of 42 delegates.

I did the math for Florida, assuming the same proportional rules as Georgia (remember, Florida doesn't have proportional rules). The Georgia rules, adjusted to the Florida 100 delegates, were 25 statewide delegates, split proportionately between candidates getting more than 20%, and then for each congressional delegation, 3 delegates, given to the winner if >50%, otherwise 2 to winner, 1 to 2nd place.

Then we cut them in half because of the early primary (although in any realistic re-working of the delegates, they would give them back their 100 delegates, they have every year).

Romney gets 15 our of the 25 statewide, won 7 districts with 50% for 21 delegates, and 15 other districts for 30 delegates; Gingrich would get 6 delegates for winning 3 districts, and 15 for the other 15 where he came in 2nd.

That gives Romney 69 to 31, which cut in half would be 34 to 16. Santorum gets zero, because he didn't come in 2nd anywhere.

The same thing would be true for Arizona, but I haven't ran the exact numbers.

21 posted on 03/29/2012 7:12:03 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: csmusaret
Rick Santorum is starting to sound like the Man from La Mancha.

Mitt Romney has long been sounding like Mephistopheles, trying to convince conservatives to sell their souls for a victory in November.
22 posted on 03/29/2012 7:17:46 PM PDT by Engraved-on-His-hands (Mitt Romney is a handbasket driver. I refuse to ride.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Not if you’re George Zimmerman.


23 posted on 03/29/2012 7:24:16 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Rational Thought

I do agree that there isn’t one positive thing to say about Romney other than he isn’t Obama.

However, I cannot in good conscience vote to make a loose cannon like Santorum the chief law enforcement officer.

What If I get attacked by a black criminal and have to kill him in order to save my life?

Is Rick Santorum then going to proclaim me guilty of 1st degree murder?

Rick Santorum is a lawyer, and he doesn’t even seem to have a basic understanding of what defines 1st degree murder, nor does he understand due process or innocent until proven guilty.

I cannot vote for such a man, and quite frankly, much as I wish I could say something else, all the republican candidates are duds.


24 posted on 03/29/2012 7:28:55 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: chris37

lol. Well at least we as a country will be in better hands than Romney and Obama with Santorum. Zimmerman will just have to suffer but do all of us have to with the other two in order to save “Zimmerman”? /sorta sarc. Go Santorum anyway. He can’t decide what will happen to Zimmerman anyway.


25 posted on 03/29/2012 7:30:56 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

I don’t know how to answer your question other than to say that I think we are all going to suffer no matter what we do.

Beyond that, I will vote for the GOP nominee without regard to whom it is or my level of distaste for that person. If Santorum gets the nomination, I will vote for him despite what I have said in this thread, because there is no reason I can think of on this earth to allow Obama to have another term.

I already spent my primary vote on Newt here in Fla., so there is no way for me to effect things from this point. I’m just kinda of spewing anger over what Rick said on this Zimmerman matter.


26 posted on 03/29/2012 7:37:30 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: xzins

April 3rd is just a few days away: Mitt will win DC and Maryland, both of which are winner-take-all, and will win something like half, maybe a bit more than half the delegates from Wisconsin, which awards some delegates by district and others in proportion to the statewide vote. This will put Mitt at about 650 delegates and Santorum at about 320. Let’s assume Santorum wins Wisconsin, so as to keep hope alive.

Then there’s a lull after which five northeast states vote. One of them is Pennsylvania, in which Santorum would normally have an advantage. Figure another 150 to 160 delegates for Romney, and 70 for Santorum.

I could go on.

All Mitt has to do is keep winning in the blue states, the blue Congressional Districts, getting his share of the delegates awarded in proportion to the vote even if this is less than 50 percent, and keep picking up the super-delegates. To stop this, Santorum has to beat Romney on Romney’s turf. He has not done it, and there’s no reason to think he will.

Contrariwise, Mitt has won only a handful of red states (mostly in the Rocky Mountain west where his Mormonism is an advantage), he has not done well in either the midwest or the south, nor in the rural areas. On the other hand, he is doing well enough to win the nomination.

Mitt will have a real challenge to unite the party, and might not be able to do so completely.

Personally, I think there’s a real chance he will name Newt to be his running mate. I wonder if they talked about this in their no longer secret meeting in New Orleans. Newt could be a very effective Vice President; and, being older, would not be presumed to be the nominee in 2020.

But not Rick Santorum. He’s kind of young. we’d be stuck with him forever. And, he’s kind of embarrassing himself at this point, talking about delegates instead of trying to win Maryland (which is winner take all) as well as Wisconsin (where winning doesn’t mean very much in terms of delegates).


27 posted on 03/29/2012 7:40:52 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: chris37
I think we are all going to suffer no matter what we do. Man I agree with you 100 percent on this. We are in deep crap because I think Romney is going to get the nomination regardless of my wishes. And with Obama giving that unbelievable statement to the foreign dignitary who is going to tell Putin is telling . We are in big trouble in a second Obama term. Of course Romney would be 2 percent better than Obama but that is not much. The 2 percent if that he is American and does seem to love America, but comparing him to Obama does not say much.
28 posted on 03/29/2012 7:41:29 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Engraved-on-His-hands
Hush and eat your Romney-Os.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
29 posted on 03/29/2012 7:42:46 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Redmen4ever

A Mitt-Newt ticket would be interesting. Santorum can wait...he would be the “next in line”, but I DEFINITELY want Santorum in the Administration if he is going to be President one day. If not, then he should go write books and keep up with his social issues because they are good regardless of what the media says.


30 posted on 03/29/2012 7:44:33 PM PDT by napscoordinator (A moral principled Christian with character is the frontrunner! Congrats Santorum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

Any ticket with Romney on it will lose, guaranteed.


31 posted on 03/29/2012 7:48:11 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: napscoordinator

Yep, naps, I don’t have a good feeling about the future of America at all. What I have is dread.

Hopefully I am as wrong as I can be.


32 posted on 03/29/2012 7:50:46 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Deagle
You know that the only winner is Mitt regardless of your complaints

Really! You mean it's over and Romney's the nominee? Wow! I must have slept through something I missed.

I guess Santorum, Newt, Ron Paul and Rush Limbaugh have not gotten the memo yet.

33 posted on 03/29/2012 7:54:32 PM PDT by tsowellfan (Don't blame me. I voted for Newt.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Rational Thought
Other than not being Obama (which could end up being Romney's only strategy), I can't think of one positive thing about Romney.

Amen to that. Not being Bush is exactly how John Kerry ran against Bush. We know where that got him.

Of course George W Bush cant even come close to how terrible Obama has been as President. I suppose we could consider that but I still don't like the idea of not having any ideas and simply running as the "Not Obama" candidate.

I like ideas. That's why I like Newt. I would vote for Santorum (no problem)if he won the nomination. I do not feel he could win the general election though.

Santorum has very shallow views on issues that are very important to the American people this election cycle. His small goverment ideas would be a plus though.

The Obama machine would crush Santorum. I can see it now. Santorum spending all of his time blaming the Obama machine for his being down in the polls and yelling in an anger-like voice during the debates. It wont be pretty.

On the other hand, there's Romney. Romney's a man who will say anything to get elected. He's the type to be pro-gay in San Francisco speeches and anti-gay in Texas. The man's a democrat running as a republican. Romney is NO different and no more conservative than Mayor Bloomberg. Sad but true.

Newt was the best chance we had.

If we end up with Romney then the 2012 election will be determined by how well or how badly Obama does in the campaigns. There's absolutely nothing positive I could tweet about Romney. No excitement at all for him. I will only be able to support a Romney candidate solely by advocating that others not give Obama another term.

I could not go door to door for Romney. I just do not share his ideals (whatever they are).

34 posted on 03/29/2012 8:09:36 PM PDT by tsowellfan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: csmusaret

Nah that’s Newt.


35 posted on 03/29/2012 8:13:41 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Oh, yeah?

How Stupid Are Some Christians?
http://www.politijim.com/2012/03/how-stupid-are-some-christians.html

Thirty-seven years ago many voters selected Jimmy Carter because he was a social conservative. What a mistake!

I’m seeing folks following Santorum because they believe what he says, but what he says isn’t always the truth.


36 posted on 03/29/2012 8:22:14 PM PDT by SatinDoll (No Foreign Nationals as our President!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Have you examined Rick’s spending record in senate? He never voted for even 1 major spending cut in 12 years. But he voted for hundreds of spending increases. He claims it was all for the team. He will be a disaster with the national debt already north of GDP. We are already heading towards a Greek tragedy at breakneck speed.

The only fiscal conservative left is Newt. Romney is a question mark.


37 posted on 03/29/2012 8:25:58 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes $150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: xzins

Problem with getting to a brokered convention is that the rules are you can’t be on the first ballot if you haven’t won 5 states. And supposedly any delegates you’ve earned all get unbound if you’re not on the ballot. So only Romney and Santorum will be on the first ballot. With only 2 candidates, one of them HAS to win the majority of the delegates on that first vote. So unless Newt can win 3 more states, there are no other possible candidates that could win beyond Mitt and Rick at the convention.

That is UNLESS they literally need 1,144, not just the majority of voting delegates on the first vote, which could mean some delegates could abstain if they had their heart set on a candidate other than Rick and Mitt. Certainly the Paulbots would do this, unless Romney promised them a Paul as the V.P. He or Santorum could also of course promise Newt as the V.P. and get Newt delegates in their court on the first vote.


38 posted on 03/29/2012 8:26:35 PM PDT by JediJones (The Divided States of Obama's Declaration of Dependence: Death, Taxes and the Pursuit of Crappiness)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Redmen4ever

Santorum should have tried to compete in MD, as it is a closed primary. Maybe he could get old Agnew admirers if any are left, but maybe not. He is from the neighboring states, but I guess ol’ Ben Cardin and Barbara Mikulksi discouraged him from trying out there.


39 posted on 03/29/2012 8:46:42 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people have again let us down in this election cycle.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SatinDoll

Oh, goodnes, Saint Rick probably has less than half the support GA Jimmy carried for too long. There are far fewer Christians now in the USA.


40 posted on 03/29/2012 8:48:42 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people have again let us down in this election cycle.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-54 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson