Polls Show Romney on Track for Win in Wisconsin

New York Times ^ | March 28, 2012, | NATE SILVER

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

If Mitt Romney was harmed by the “Etch A Sketch” comment made by one of his advisers or by his loss in Louisiana over the weekend, it doesn’t seem to be preventing him from being in position to win in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday.

Mr. Romney now leads the polls in Wisconsin, a state that had once seemed relatively favorable for Rick Santorum. A survey from Marquette University, released on Tuesday, gave Mr. Romney an eight-point lead in the state. That is a slightly smaller margin than the one in an earlier Rasmussen Reports poll, which had put Mr. Romney 13 points ahead.

At an earlier stage in the nomination campaign, a lead of about 11 points — as Mr. Romney now holds in the FiveThirtyEight forecast for Wisconsin — might have seemed like a gap that Mr. Santorum could easily overcome. The past several weeks of the campaign have been fairly stable, however; the Gallup national tracking poll has put Mr. Romney ahead ever since he won Michigan and Arizona on Feb. 28.

If Mr. Romney has yet to consolidate every group within the Republican coalition, there are signs that some voters around the margins have come around to him. A recent poll in Pennsylvania, Mr. Santorum’s home state, now shows an essentially tied race, after Mr. Santorum had once held a clear lead there.

In Wisconsin, likewise, Mr. Santorum had held a clear lead in two polls conducted in February but has been at a deficit in the most recent ones. Wisconsin can have a rebellious political culture and would not necessarily be the first state to consolidate around an inevitable-seeming nominee, especially considering how poorly Mr. Romney did in neighboring Minnesota.

(Snip)

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Nor can Mr. Santorum count on consolidating support from Newt Gingrich’s former supporters, even though Mr. Gingrich’s campaign has gone into a sort of hibernation period. Mr. Gingrich is at only about 7 percent support in the recent Wisconsin polls, so not very many of his supporters are still up for grabs.

Mr. Santorum has outperformed his polls in many states, including Louisiana last week, so there is still the chance of an upset. Otherwise, however, Tuesday could be a very strong night for Mr. Romney.

Wisconsin awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis, although partly based on the statewide vote count and partly at the Congressional district level. The overall winner of the state receives 18 delegates; an additional 24 are awarded, 3 at a time, to the winner of each of the state’s eight Congressional districts.

Although Mr. Santorum could be more competitive in the Third, Seventh and Eighth Congressional Districts, which lie outside Milwaukee and Madison and their suburbs, winning those alone wouldn’t get him very far, yielding him 9 delegates from Wisconsin to Mr. Romney’s 33.

[brownsfan]

Wisconsin is off my list, I’ll never visit there again!

[Antoninus]

Yes, we know. You want Romney but are afraid to come out and say it. So you hide behind the “I want Newt” baloney.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Romney-46%

Santorum-34.5%

Paul-10.3%

Gingrich-7%

[deport]

Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Santorum	Paul	Gingrich	Spread
RCP Average	3/21 - 3/25	--	42.5	32.0	9.5	6.0	Romney +10.5
Marquette University	3/22 - 3/25	349 LV	39	31	11	5	Romney +8
Rasmussen Reports	3/21 - 3/21	1000 LV	46	33	8	7	Romney +13

[benewton]

I’ll probably vote for none of the above.

But if you like Romney, why not just vote for the real rat?

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

So much for the theory that having Newt drop out, would hand it easily to Santorum. We pointed out that it would have an opposite effect, so they will have to blame us for something else I guess.

[icwhatudo]

With Newt basically quitting (and having behind the scenes meetings with Romney) and polling behind Ru Paul, its pretty clear that Santorum is the only one with a snowballs chance of stopping Romney. At this point, every “reverend rick” and “little ricky” comment is simply support for mittens. The choice is clear- its either Rick or Mitt. Everything else is just noise.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Don’t blame the Newt supporters, we tried to prevent this mess. Now you are going to live with the result of picking a loser like Santorum in the first place. You have nobody to blame but yourselves. And there is no way Santorum can win against Obama. This is the reality you chose. Now, we all have to live with it.

[Lazlo in PA]

LOL. Yes. This is the daily "soft sell" of Romney by PSYCHO. See Newt is in some sort of hibernation in this Primary, which most see as dead, so obviously we have only one way to go. Milt.

[so_real]

If memory serves, the importing thing is to keep Romney from hitting 33% where he gets the lion's share of the delegates. Vote Santorum, vote Gingrich, vote Paul. I don't care which. If someone other than Romney can't "win" the nomination, let's at least take it to the contested convention. It may not be victory, but it is a thumb in the eye of the establishment. (P.S. I think Romney and Santorum are closer to neck and neck than the polls say. Just my 2 cents as a resident.)

[mo]

so saad....Obama so beatable...and the lame Mittster is all they can come up with....Pubbie turnout will be non existent this fall...think McCain....WITHOUT Palin!!!!

[PennsylvaniaMom]

It’s down to the tenacity and stamina of Santorum. For a very long time in this process, I publicly stated I would vote for Santorum OR Gingrich...whoever had the best chance of stopping Obamney. After Noot’s Louisiana primary day morning visit and “kiss the ring” session with
Mittens, I can unequivocally say I now believe Gingrich is helping Myth the same way Paul is. And that is a rotten shame.

Oh...and did ya hear the one about the closing of the AMC Gremlin factory...made the world a more beautiful place. Vote for Obamney...

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

The polls have been very realistic this primary, except in 2 states. Illinois was almost within 2 points of what the polls forecasted.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Romney approached Newt and tried to cut a deal. Newt told him, no way and pretty much walked out. So, don’t try to demonize Newt any more than he already has been by your side.

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Ahhh...a Mitten summoning. What happened to the word “no?” as in don’t wanna meet with ya...I’m in it til Tampa...oh...wait, you’ll pay some of my bills?

Sorry...GOP E set up and adoration of the Myth and it’s “his turn” is REALLY transparent now.

And did ya hear the one about the AMC Pacer?

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Newt is a statesman above all else. He is also an adult, and adults behave this way. They are not publicly rude or disrespectful. Newt did the right thing by at least hearing what Romney had to say on a personal level. And Newt did say NO.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Sounds to me like you have a personal problem you have been struggling with. You might want to get help for that.

[Col Freeper]

Vet the media:

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

So, you’re saying that this whole report is a lie then?

No matter who reports it, the facts are the facts. This is a Times article, not an opinion. And if you actually read the article, you might find that is is rather truthful as well as honest about the facts.