[entropy12]

By April 24th, we will know results of LA, MD, DC, WI, CT, DE, NY, PA & RI. That is a total of 401 delegates.

Romney has 497, Santorum has 183, Newt has 135 Committed delegates according to Wiki.

If Santorum wins 50% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 183+.50x401 =384 delegates.

If Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 497 + .30x401= 617 delegates.

After April 24th, there are 796 delegates remaining to be won.

Santorum needs to win (1144-384)/796 x 100 = 95.5% of remaining delegates to get to 1144.
Mathematically possible, in reality, impossible.

Romney needs to win (1144-617)/796 x 100 = 66% of remaining delegates. Mathematically possible, in reality improbable.

Conclusion? We are going to a brokered convention. And that convention is highly unlikely to pick a 2nd place winner. So if Romney does not get it, it will be some one else from the sidelines.

[so_real]

I largely agree with your analysis, though I see a larger window for Santorum than you. But assuming you are correct, Romney is slightly less socialist than Obama, but compared to any Constitutional conservative, he isn't worth a hill of beans. I'd rather have the enemy on the line in front of us all, than the one hiding in our uniform at our back. Going into a brokered convention with Romney so damaged he cannot possibly win is enough success for me. I'll worry about who the sidelines candidates are on that day. For now, I'm pleased to support Santorum who has the momentum. And if Gingrich obtains some momentum I'm willing to support him as well. Bottom line, the only existing candidate that is guaranteed to throw this election to Obama is Romney. If he becomes the nominee, we have already lost. And therefore, if for no other reason, "anything but Obama" precludes me from supporting him. No Romney, no way.