Right?
Posted on 03/19/2012 10:39:11 PM PDT by VinL
With former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich low in the polls and splitting the conservative vote with former Sen. Rick Santorum, commentators and pundits have suggested that Gingrich should drop out of the GOP race. Political analyst Scott Rasmussen told The Daily Caller that a dispassionate reading of the tea leaves suggests they’re right.
“I think if [Gingrich] dropped out, it would be good for the party and it would be good for Santorum and Romney,” Rasmussen said. “It is much easier and much healthier for the Republican party if you have Santorum and Romney going head-to-head and Ron Paul throwing in a different perspective, than it is to have Gingrich and Santorum fighting to appeal to the same group of voters.”
Rasmussen noted that Gingrich is prolonging the GOP nomination by remaining in the contest, as he has insisted he would.
“The race to get 50 percent is a lot harder if four people are splitting them up,” Rasmussen said.
Gingrich lags behind Santorum and former Gov. Romney with 136 delegates and 14 percent in the polls, stretching his two primary victories in South Carolina and Georgia as far as they will go.
Gingrich’s campaign spokesperson gave no sign of throwing in the towel.
“Santorum and Romney are not bold enough to challenge the Democrat machine,” R.C. Hammond said, dismissing Rasmussen’s comments. “Newt is and he will.” (RELATED: Full coverage of the Gingrich campaign)
While the former speaker may possess that boldness, RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende has seen little success from the Gingrich campaign, concluding that “the numbers just aren’t there.”
Gingrich would have to win 75 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.
“His goal right now,” Trende explained, “and what his entire strategy is — and he says this — is to keep Romney from getting to 1,144 [delegates], and split up the delegates enough ways that there’s a brokered convention and maybe he can convince all of the delegates to break his way there.”
But Gingrich might be in for more disappointment.
Rasmussen suggested that if anything, it is “conceivable” that GOP front-runner Mitt Romney could go to an open convention with with less than 50 percent of the delegates but a big lead, meaning he would be the nominee no matter what.
“The only way it becomes a brokered convention is if none of the candidates has a big lead,” Rasmussen explained. “If that happens, you have a free-for-all — a pretty unlikely scenario.”
Both analysts agree that if Gingrich ended his candidacy, most of his voters would go to Santorum, but not all of them.
In fact, Trende predicted that Gingrich dropping out would increase Romney’s odds of becoming the nominee. Romney, with 507 delegates, stands twice as tall next to Santorum’s 239 delegates.
“The race right now is between Romney and a brokered convention,” Trende speculated. “It will be very difficult for Rick Santorum to get to 1,144 [delegates], whether Gingrich is in or not.”
Set down the name, the one Scott Rasmaussen.
Feeney, have you written the name I gave you?
Well, strike a line through it.
That's for him. Scott Rasmaussen.
****************
Newt's calling the shots- and that's how it should be.
I'm in, until Newt's out.
Party? There is an actual functioning Party?
““The race to get 50 percent is a lot harder if four people are splitting them up,” Rasmussen said. “
No shiite. What’s next, the sun will rise tomorrow?
A bit too late, don’t you think so after the damage has been done? Heck, some of us here on FR have been demanding that Gingrich withdraw ever since Santorum clinched the trifecta! Welcome to reality Mr. Rasmussen but why so late?
What I heard Rasmussen say is “if Newt would get out my boy Romney could roll Santorum”.
The way Santorum’s getting curb-stomped in IL right now, I’d rather Newt stay in.
That's BS- : ‘It would be good for Slick Willard’ if Gingrich dropped out.
Not if we want a brokered convention, and that is what I am hoping for. Let the people as a whole select our candidate.
Right?
Go Newt!!! Give ‘em hell.
“He’ll regret it till his dying day, if ever he lives that long. “
A man of letters. Right you are. _:)
Newt out.... Zerodamus wins..
If only for entertainment purposes NEWT MUST STAY IN.....
Newt out.. then Zero wins a very boring win over Willard and Santo..
Willard and Santo cannot handle or compete with a billion dollar Zerodamus slush fund and at least 3 or 4 networks and a passel of cable channels carrying water for Barry Half-White.. not to speak of most all newspapers and mags.. and a few Hollywood propaganda movies.. plus all the money and resources of almost every Union..
Newt can.. He can handle it.. Newts a whore but he isn’t a Union Stooge like Santo and Willard.. Like Juan Mclaim I feel Santo and Willard will throw the election..
You know.. like Juan... TAKE A DIVE.. He did you know?..
Go crunch some numbers. Go Newt. Brokered convention.
McGruff
It's interesting how the GOPe’s narrative is changing as it is looking more and more likely Romney wont have the delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention.
Now they are saying he's going to win anyway even without the delegates..all righty then that takes care of that..NOT
Its been my opinion all along that if Romney cant clinch the nomination before the convention he is toast at the convention.
Even the thick headed GOPe would be forced to nominate a conservative if they would have any chance of winning the election and thus keep their jobs.
Newt is not leaving, so your guy can have this, we don't want a liberal
Yours truly.
Fine by me.
Let the blue bloods and country clubbers and their creepy pulled back wives go on record putting the man from KOLOB in the drivers seat of the GOP and let the party die screaming like it deserves to.
Good for the party but bad for the country. Are we going to put party over country?
Well, yes, the GOP Establishment would.
I won’t.
Please! Does anyone here really think any of the candidates dropping out will change things? We have NO Conservatives running but we do have a lot of Establishment politicians that you can vote for. Yeehah..!
When you have nothing to gain but expelling the worst President of this Century, how do you respond? Do we have to vote for whomever is the current leader of the (Establishment) Republican Party? Yes, time to again vote for the lesser of two evils!.
Can we ever again vote for someone that we actually want for President? Not likely in my lifetime anyway. Sure hope that a NEW Party arises.. Yes, anything is better than what we currently have!
IMHO santorim is the disruptor.
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