The 'Inevitability' Vote (Thomas Sowell on Romney)

Creators Syndicate ^ | March 16, 2012 | Thomas Sowell

[jazusamo]

Many people may be voting for Mitt Romney because of the view in some quarters that he is the inevitable Republican candidate for President of the United States and the candidate with the best chance of beating Barack Obama, rather than because they actually prefer Romney to the other candidates. Inevitability has a very unreliable track record. Within living memory, totalitarianism was considered to be "the wave of the future." During the primary season, people should vote for whomever they prefer, on their own merits, not because pundits have pronounced them inevitable. Regardless of what the polls or the pundits say about Mitt Romney's chances of winning the Republican nomination, the conditions that made him the front runner in the primaries are the direct opposite of the conditions for the general election. The biggest single reason why Governor Romney is the front runner is that he has had the overwhelming advantage in money spent and in "boots on the ground" running his campaign in states across the country. Romney has outspent each of his rivals — and all of his rivals put together. His campaign organization has been operating for years, and it has put his name on the ballot everywhere, while neither Santorum nor Gingrich had a big enough organization to get on the ballot in an important state like Virginia. In the general election, President Obama will have all the advantages against Romney that Romney currently has against his Republican rivals. Barack Obama will have boots on the ground everywhere — not just members of the Democratic Party organization but thousands of labor union members as well. Incumbency alone guarantees the president plenty of money to finance his campaign, not only from enthusiastic supporters but also from businesses regulated by the government, who know that holders of political power demand tribute. And the mainstream media will give Obama more publicity than Romney can buy. How does anyone ever defeat a sitting president then? They do it because they have a message that rings and resonates. The last Republican to defeat a sitting president was Ronald Reagan. He was the only Republican to do so in the 20th century. He didn't do it with polls. At one point during the election campaign, President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan with 58 percent to 40 percent in the polls. So much for the polls that so many are relying on so heavily today. The question is not which Republican looks better against Barack Obama in the polls today, before the general election campaign begins. The question is which Republican can take the fight to Barack Obama, as Reagan took the fight to Carter, and win the poll that ultimately matters, the vote on election day. The biggest fighting issue for Republicans is ObamaCare. Can the author of RomneyCare as governor of Massachusetts make that an effective issue by splitting hairs over state versus federal mandates? Can a man who has been defensive about his own wealth fight off the standard class warfare of Barack Obama, who can push all the demagogic buttons against Mitt Romney as one of the one-percenters? Rick Santorum, and especially Newt Gingrich, are fighters — and this election is going to be a fight to the finish, with the fate of this country in the balance. Mitt Romney has depended on massive character assassination advertising campaigns to undermine his rivals. That will not work against Barack Obama. Even a truthful account of the Obama administration's many disastrous failures, at home and abroad, will be automatically countered by the mainstream media, 90 percent of whom voted for Obama in the 2008 election. It is truer in this election than in most that "it takes a candidate to beat a candidate." And that candidate has to offer both himself and his vision. Massive ad campaigns against rivals is not a vision. Some, like President Bush 41, disdained "the vision thing" — and he lost the presidency that he had inherited from Ronald Reagan, lost it to a virtual unknown from Arkansas. The vision matters, more than the polls and even more than incumbency in the White House.

[Paved Paradise]

You made such a good point. I wish MY perfect candidate was out there, but there is no such thing. All this weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth because Mitt/Newt/Santorum (or it could be anyone) has flaws. Oh my. Meanwhile, Reagan wasn’t perfect either. I see many adore and idolize him as if HE were the Messiah on the conservative side.

I’m committed to unseating Obama. After talking with many people, I keep hearing a lot of the same rhetoric. A friend of mine in Southern California said his guy was Cain (that was my choice, too, until all that nasty stuff happened and he withdrew). He likes Newt but doesn’t think Newt is going to do it so he’s going for Mitt. I’m a Santorum supporter. Like I told a lot of people, I’m practicing Blood-Type-Voting this year. Yeah, A-B-O. Anybody BUT Obama.

[JediJones]

LOL, you don’t think Mitt’s a lefty? Since he’s a proven, known liar, the only thing that matters is his record as governor. And there is no Republican governor I’m aware of whose policies were further to the left.

Scenario A: If RINO Romney wins and is unpopular, as he was as governor and is to an historic degree in this primary, the Democrats sweep Congress in 2014, as the opposition party always does when a sitting president is unpopular. Then they boot him out in 2016, in a repeat of 2006-2008. What follows is a hard-left majority government, which no doubt would abolish the mandate with pure socialized medicine, full abortion up to partial-birth coverage, big tax increases, shutdown of American energy production, etc.

Scenario B: If Mittsky Romneyev wins and is POPULAR, then conservatism as we know it is dead. We’ll get 16 years or more of GOP elite “moderate” rule. The only options to vote for will be left and hard-left. Expect every issue you care about to be compromised, which will mean liberals got most of what they wanted.

Scenario C: If Mitt loses, we can vote in a Republican conservative Congress in 2014 to continue gridlocking Obama. There’s very little Obama has done besides Obamacare that isn’t reversible under a new administration. That’s the benefit of forcing him to do everything by executive fiat. If Obamacare is overturned by the Supreme Court, then his worst legacy will be wiped out even before the election. Then in 2016 we get another chance to nominate a conservative against an unknown Democrat candidate.

We can keep letting the GOP’s hand-picked moderates go down in flames unless and until they and/or their sheeple party line voters finally get the message. If we want conservatism to win the day, it might make sense to do a strategic retreat in this presidential election if Massachusetts Mitt is the nominee.

[steveo]

I'm with you Vlad! I'm going to sit home too... I love the idea of the country in it's death throes as long as I can have my moral superiority.

I'm in no way a fan of Mitt but not voting against Obama is like giving your executioner advice on how to properly insert the IV.

[The Shrew]

The biggest single reason why Governor Romney is the front runner is that he has had the overwhelming advantage in money spent and in "boots on the ground" running his campaign in states across the country.

Dr. Sowell puts the hammer to the nail with this comment. I wonder what will happen when the Obamabots start questioning where those "boots on the ground" came from? Then you will get the leaks from minor campaign operatives that, "Yea, everyone I work with is from the local Mormon Temple." Next thing you know there will be stories in the NYTimes about the legality of church's supporting candidates and why should they have special tax exempt status. Then, there will be the FEC investigations about illegal contributions to the campaign in terms of time and money.

I swear to you that more tears are shed by answered prayers than by un-answered prayers. IMHO, The LDS church is going to regret the day Romney becomes the nominee.

Regards,

TS

[Paved Paradise]

What I hear you telling me is that should it come to Obama vs. Romney, you will allow another 4 years of Obama. How despicable. No wonder we are in trouble.

[Paved Paradise]

((applause))

[reaganaut]

I lived under Communism in Yugoslavia. I know the definition far better than most Americans and Romney is a Communist.

[reaganaut]

If it’s between Mitt and Obama and MITT wins, your YES vote is as good as vote for Obama. I’m sure the Left, the Media, and all who are on Obama’s side are just gleeful in knowing that there will be people like you.

Mitt is counting on people like you to just roll over and vote for the (R). You are being played.

If you vote for Romney, you are not a Conservative. Period.

[reaganaut]

so did you campaign (work) for the candidate you wanted? Did you donate money?

- - - -
Yes and Yes. I always do. And this election it was 3 different candidates as my first choices left (Bachman, Cain, now I’m behind Newt).

Yes, I do know Mitt will be the same as Obama, look at his record. Look at his lies. I know a whole lot of people like him, Mormonism breeds liars who are trained to say anything to get the results they want - it is called an LDS mission.

You don’t think Romney is a LEFTY?!?!? Have you been paying attention here? Romney is FAR LEFT. Just check out the Romney truth file here.

You need to wake up, boy. Romney is an evil lying liberal.

[Paved Paradise]

I feel sorry for you. First, let me just state that as a Christian, I put my faith in God, so regardless of the election, I know who is sovereign over my life and all things. That doesn’t mean I’m going to lie down and just let the socialists/lefties steamroll over me.

I completely disagree about your stance on Romney. He’s NOT my guy, but like I said, Anybody but Obama. And the only way you can be disproved is if he wins. Meanwhile, Santorum is starting to sound like a nut job.

I voted for Santorum in the Ohio primary. Romney won here. What do you want people to do? Meanwhile, why don’t you post some serious links that support your own wacked out ideas. If Romney was a true lefty, that means, everyone is in the dark and only you know the REAL truth. As for Newt, he had his chance back when and blew it...

[reaganaut]

And I feel sorry for you. I’m not gonna let the socialists steam roll over me either, which is why I am not going to vote for Romney.

Principles matter and God is Soverign, His will be done and sadly this country has turned against HIS will over and over again.

Principles matter more than politics, as a Christian I cannot vote for a non-Christian, much less a member of a cult that I know inside and out and better than most members (Mormonism).

I don’t need to post links to prove Romney is a lefty. Just go to “romneytruthfile” here on FR. Now if you can’t find a simple link on the home page I can provide a link for you.

You are the one who seems to be in the dark about Romney. The guy is dangerous, even more so because he claims (and people are falling for it) to be a Republican when he is a ‘white and delightsome’ - to use a Book of Mormon phrase - Obama.

My ideas aren’t wacked, Romney’s socialism is well documented here on FR.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Newt is finished and now has no chance. For whatever reason he blew it or just did not catch on.
Also I could not vote for Newt as he just no real Conservative. Been in D.C. way too long and the latest wife is beyond the pale.

[Paved Paradise]

You say you are a Christian. Maybe you need to pray for Romney instead of cursing him so much. Maybe it’s good you stay home after all. I hope the smart people vote, though.

[ansel12]

All of us should be praying for Mormon Bishop Romney.

Praying for his immortal soul, and that he is ineffective in attaining his goals.

[reaganaut]

Where did I ever say I didn’t pray for Romney? I can attack him politically, attack his religion and still pray for him. I pray that God opens his eyes and that he leaves his cult and I pray that he doesn’t get the nomination.

And I never said I would stay home either, I just will vote against both Obama and Romney.

And I guarantee that I am smarter than you are. I’m not stupid enough to think Romney is a conservative or will do anything but further Obama’s policies.

[Paved Paradise]

Your last paragraph was priceless. You know NOTHING about me, but you can “guarantee” that you are smarter than me. LOL!!! I’m sure you are the smartest person in the world... (oh my...gotta stop laughing here).

[ansel12]

Maybe it’s good you stay home after all. I hope the smart people vote, though.

Smart people are trying to stop Romney, not advance him.