FWIW, I think a large majority would go to Newt.
Newt Gingrich is the conservative firewall.
I hope Newt, Rick , and even Ron Paul stay in to keep delegates away from Mittens. Let’em sort it out at the convention
freegards
LEX
BS
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"ATLANTA — It wasn't so long ago that the Republican Party in Georgia was just an afterthought, and Democrats were in firm control of all the levers of state government. Back then, Newt Gingrich and other die-hard GOP stalwarts ventured across the state with the far-fetched message that Republicans could reverse the tide.
Now with commanding majorities in the Statehouse and control of all statewide offices, Gingrich is hoping his vision for how the GOP could overcome decades of Democratic dominance in Georgia will pay dividends. He sorely needs a victory when his home state votes Tuesday, along with a big chunk of its 76 delegates, to prove his stumbling presidential bid has staying power.
Many Republican figures in Georgia still credit him with championing conservative policies, outlining a framework for what a GOP majority in the state could accomplish and broadcasting talking points to a generation of up-and-coming conservative leaders. He's also applauded for lobbying conservative Democrats, like then-Rep. Nathan Deal, to switch parties.
"Everyone else was trying to lose as slowly as possible, and to die with dignity at the Alamo. He was talking confidently that the Republican majority in Georgia, in the South and nationally was right around the corner," said Ralph Reed, a veteran Georgia GOP operative who founded the national Faith and Freedom Coalition. "On the one hand it was crazy, but on the other it was just the most exciting thing you've ever heard.".....................In Ga., Gingrich helped build conservative base
The person who is second behind Newt isn’t going to bow out for a guy who is polling low double digits or single digits in most states.
The idea is grossly absurd. How do Newt folks think Santorum voters will go? What it they went to Mitt?
LOL
My take:
Romney’s supporters/voters have been swayed by his appearance and endorsements - not his socialist programs.
Santorum’s supporters/voters are puritans - impressed by his family, youth and preaching - not his big government record.
Newt’s supporters/voters are small government/Consitutional advocates - impressed by his experience, solutions and conservative record. They are not prudes - but realists.
Not sure how any of the above supporters change their minds and ‘cross over’. The 3 candidates are too far apart in personal and political principles.
40% would go to Romney if Newt quitted. That proves once for all that he needs to stay on, otherwise Romney would be nominated for sure.
I am Newt supporter who would switch to Romney because I don’t think santorum can fight Obama machine.
That is what I wish would happen. Santorum time after time bungles his message. There is no way he could manage in a one on one w/ the O. If Santorum would drop out, enough voters would go to Newt that I think he could overcome Mitt as the race progresses.
The majority of Southern states have had their primaries and the remaining few are proportional states. The south is Newt’s strength and even there he has placed first in only 2 states. He is a perennial third outside the south. No way Santorum is going to drop out for Newt. The best Newt can hope for is that he will siphon enough delegates as a third choice that Romney will not reach the magic delegate number.
What if Romney exited? Just asking....
I would strongly urge NOT to take a sitting conservative senator. We need every conservative we can muster in the senate. Take a governor or Congressman.
Multiple other polls, prominently discussed here on this forum, have shown the opposite to be true - Santorum's vote splits between them while nearly all of Gingrich's vote goes to Santorum.
Which lends some credibility to Gallup, which took a huge sample to overcome the inherent polling difficulties associated with discerning differences within a homogenous population.
The caveat, however, comes with the Gingrich slug (less so with the inclusion of "Republican-leaning independents"). The slug is necessarily noted & noteworthy, but at the same time the internal sample suffers from the small population:
- For results based on the total sample of Republican registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
- For results based on the total sample of 290 Newt Gingrich supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.
If either one dropped out, was announced as the other’s V.P., and stayed on the campaign trail with them, then the other would almost certainly pick up the vast majority of their support. Does anyone disagree with it? That’s what they need to do. They should be locked in a room until they’re able to make a deal along those lines. Because there’s one thing that’s almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June. Unless of course, Romney is arrested for murder between now and then.
Romney would get the nomination easily. It is either Santorum or Romney. You can't as much as people would hope name a nominee that has only won two states. Just can't happen. Newt cannot win anywhere else in America. I am sorry for that, but those are the facts. If he could have won at least one state in each area then I think he could be the nominee, but since it is only his home state and the state next to it, how could he get enough electorals? I think SC and GA would give him 19 electorals and Obama would get about 520. That is not a good strategy.
I believe you’re right. It’s been noticable that in the heavy liberal bastions, Mitt comes in first and Rick second, with Newt way back with Paul. I contend that the more conservative you lean, the more likely you are to back Newt. If he drops out, I can picture a lot of his backers going to Romney just to ensure Obama is easily elected - better to make it absolutely clear that we need to do something big to take the Nation back and most don’t believe Rick will do the job where it will do the most good - might as well let Mitt fall to Obama and hunker down while the light bulbs turn on.
Former Democrats have moved into the Republican party and shifted it to the left. These are the so-called “moderate” Republicans, who support Mitt Romney. You should take your (Democrat) party back from the Socialists and nominate Mitt to challenge Obama as a Democrat.
We’re running out of states and Newt has won Georgia, and one state that borders Georgia. The only shot Newt has at this point is if both Santorum and Romney drop out of the race. The Newt supporters that act like Gingrich is anything but a spoiler at this point are almost comical.