Posted on 03/15/2012 7:44:14 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
If Gingrich bows out now and the states go the way they are supposed to, Romney would be somewhere around 1000-1040 delegates.
This doesn’t take into effect the massive amount of momentum Santorum would get from the May Calendar alone. On April 24, PA, DE, NY, CT, and RI. If Santorum scores an expected victory in PA, an upset victory in DE (if O’Donnell can win with Tea Party support its possible) and win 6-7 Congressional districts in NY, it would push him into huge momentum going into May, where he’d be the favorite in virtually every state (KY, WV, NC, AR, TX, NE, IN, and OR.
Except OR, all are likely wins for Santorum. This means that Romney could very well limp to the June 5 primaries in CA, NJ, NM, SD, and MT with Santorum having enough momentum to win SD, MT, and at least 20-25 Congressional districts in CA. This would keep Romney at least under 1,050.
However, if Newt stays in, the projected number I’m seeing and what looks most likely is Romney gets to around 1,177 on June 19. That’s because Newt is letting Romney win more delegates than Romney normally would, like what happened in OK, AL, and MS. If this repeats across the other favorable non-Romney states, it’s impossible to stop him. The only way Newt helps Santorum by staying in is if he campaigns directly for Romney’s supporters (affluent, women, seniors, Hispanics), four categories Newt has done horrendous in.
I’ve been running the numbes on my IL simulation. Turnout will be key. Santorum needs to do well in mid and downstate, but like IA, the population of this area as steadily decreased, although Northern IL hasn’t increased by very much. IL has 102 counties. Santorum probably has to win the 50 or so small counties by anywhere from 500-1000 votes to offset Chicago (Cook), Lake, Northern IL suburbia, Springfield, the Quads, and along the MO border. Even with Newt getting only 6%, it may swing the state to Romney if it’s close, though I’m still not sure there are enough conservative voters in IL to make a difference. It is hard to tell what Romney’s true support in IL is off of his 2008 primary showing because by that time, many conservatives were voting for Romney to stop McCain.
I’ve thought of posting the same before...this primary is just like the last...1/3 GOP-e ‘Big Gov’t.’, 1/3 Big Gov’t Christian Socialist, and 1/3 rational Conservatives.
If the choice is between Mitt and Rick, I’d pick Mitt..and I am a Gingrich supporter/donor.
I consider a man’s religion as part of the whole of the man...to determine his ‘moral’ nature if you will...but I, and many Americans, get turned off when it becomes a central theme of his candidacy. We are not electing a National Priest here. I don’t begrudge anyone their religion, but feel religion is a purely personal phenomenon and not a staple of a presidential campaign. ‘Faith, family, freedom’? Really?
Personally I’d rather the platform be ‘Economy, employment and energy’.
Well, Reagan was 70 when he took office for the first time. If Newt is in good health, I don't see why he shouldn't try run again in 2016, if he'd like to do so.
“The Romney sleeze machine at work. Unbelievable.”
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Wouldn’t surprise me.
Rick blew big leads in both Michigan and Ohio.
We were just discussing this theme the other day.
Oh, and the author agrees with me -- ahem! ;)
Ping ...
Not that anyone is going to change his/her picture, but I thought you would like to see the article and discussion.
I agree, except that both conservatives need to stay in and tag-team Santorum where/when they can, to assure the open convention.
If Santorum were to drop out, Willard has shown he can carpet-bomb Newt just as easily and has done so convincingly in the past. With either one out, Willard runs the table.
I'll bet we don't have a turnout problem with veterans of Iraq who saw the Iraqis hold up their purple-dyed fingers.
[CW] Do you believe if Gingrich became the nominee, that those would be the numbers? And if they were, do you honestly believe Obama has such an edge?
As long as the candidate is perceived as a conservative to Obama's Carter-like screwup liberal, and the Chicago Slime Machine can't change his image entirely (they'll try, no matter who it is), he should be able to handle Obama. Either Santorum or Gingrich could do it. Santorum would need some help with slime-fighting and squashing the ankle-biters (he'll want Gingrich on campaign with him, and Dubya proved that trying to ignore them does not work), but he can do it. Newt can do it.
The point now is that they keep Romney from running the table, that they keep the convention open.
I'd sign that ticket.
Thanks for the ping!
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