Posted on 03/04/2012 8:56:20 AM PST by red flanker
Contra Michigan, early voting may save Santorum in TN. Basically a 3 way tie among election day voters, but he's up with early ones.
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/02/tennessees_early_voting_for_ma.html
Early voting in Tenn appears to light.
In 2008 Republican Primary 550k votes were cast in total. in 2012 early voting roughly 100k votes has been cast on the Republican side.
Lincoln county
As of Tuesday afternoon, county officials said that 898 voters out of some 19,000 registered voters in the county had cast their ballots, with about 700 of those in the Republican primary.
Newt will be in Kingsport, Alcoa, & Chattanoga Tomorrow. Tenn is definitely in play for Newt.
Election day in Tennesse will be Clear Upper 50’s to Low 60’s.
Go Newt
Mariner wrote:
<<
Santorum is collapsing so fast even some of his dedicated supporters no longer see him as a good bet.
A swing to Gingrich...and regrettably Romney...is underway. It’s happening very, very quickly.
I would not be surprised to see Santorum finish 3rd or 4th in TN.
>>
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Bottom line... If we don’t want Mitt Romney to secure the GOP nomination, we need to root for Santorum to win Ohio. Period. Gingrich will not be able to remain viable enough by only winning a handful of southern states. We need to be pulling for the strongest anti-Romney candidate in EVERY state, no matter who it may be.
Agreed. Gingrich and Santorum together will still do well enough in Ohio to deny Romney delegates. I meant Santorum’s difficulties might give Gingrich an opportunity....
Well, you know I’m one of Newt’s most avid supporters, so I really hope you (and PPP) are right.
Actually I'd modify that to every Congressional District or county, depending on how that state party counts it's votes.
What we cannot have is Romney walking into Tampa with 1,144 committed delegates.
Still, he could walk in with 844 committed delegates and the at-large delegates would still giv3e it to him on the first ballot.
Much better scenario is if all 4 walk into Tampa with less than 800 delegates and only a couple above 500.
Otherwise Romney is the nominee.
trappedincanuckistan wrote:
<<
Agreed. Gingrich and Santorum together will still do well enough in Ohio to deny Romney delegates. I meant Santorum’s difficulties might give Gingrich an opportunity....
>>
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Ohio definitely doesn’t look to be in play for Gingrich at this point. Even though Santorum is my first choice right now, I’m perfectly fine with Gingrich winning the southern states, including Tennessee. I just hope that a late Gingrich surge in the latter state doesn’t split the conservative vote there to the point where Romney would emerge as the de facto winner.
Who hasn't collapsed at the hands of the Romney smear machine?
That Romney only won by three points in Michigan is remarkable. That Santorum still could win Ohio despite the onslaught is as well.
Anyone celebrating a Santorum collapse is celebrating a decisive Romney win on Super Tuesday.
The ONLY chance any Romney alternative has is for Romney to lose in Ohio and suffer a setback on Tuesday.
That hatred of Santorum is Romney's best friend.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
RCP delegate count:
173 Romney
74 Santorum
37 Paul
33 Gingrich.
Paul just passed Gingrich for fourth, scoring 5 delegates in WA.
Paul’s on an 18:1 delegate run vs Gingrich.
Romney is the ONE benefiting. If he wins Tennessee, the race is finished. But, you'd rather see Santorum lose than any candidate having a chance to beat Romney.
research “binding” or “committed” delegates, understand it, and get back to me.
The problem is that Newt can’t win in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all states that need to be won in order to deny Romney the nomination.
The south just isn’t enough. Newt needed to win Florida to have a chance, and the South without Florida, and without the midwest won’t defeat someone with the W + NE + Florida.
The delegate count just doesn’t add up. Unless you believe that Newt can win states outside of the south - what is going to happen is exactly what you figure.
The conservative vote will be split, and Romney will start taking WTA states with 35 percent of the vote.
Hey, I thought RCP was reliable. Are you saying they are not?
Anyways, Paul 37, Newt 33, Santorum 74 now after WA.
PPP will release it’s poll numbers late tonight - usually it’s between 10PM and 11PM EST - for its Tennessee, Georgia & Ohio polls. This poll is pretty fresh; it’s taken from those polled yesterday & today.
Romney needs to lose on Tuesday and only Santorum can beat him in Ohio.
If Romney wins Tuesday in Ohio, the MSM and RINOSM annoint Romney as the GOP nominee and the sheep flock to Mitt.
Romney already wins three of the states Tuesday (Vermont,Massachusetts,Virginia) and has a good chance in Idaho because of the Mormons in the eastern part of that state.
Ohio will be the one the media uses as the narrative for Romney winning the night. Romney must lose there.
I was on the ground in SC, on the phones, and door to door. There were almost 10,000 calls made in SC the last 2 weeks... and the last 2 or 3 days, you could feel the momentum changing on the phones... Earlier, it was maybe 2 Newts out of 10, and by the day before the vote, it was 8 out of 10 for Newt. You could feel the change, and it happened very quickly in the final 72 hours. Newt went out of his way to salute the phone call and grassroots efforts in SC... please... please... there is still time to call for Newt, and get involved for Newt...
From Newt 2012: friday
Field and Phone Leaders, CALLING ALL HANDS ON DECK!!
Our national phone team has successfully called through the original 18,000 volunteer sign-ups. This has resulted in a refined list of volunteer prospects for all 50 states. In 3 weeks our national call team has increased by 300%, or 50 new people per week.
Our increased call capacity will help us now begin to make calls into “Super Tuesday” states or those close by that can assist and or deploy to active states.
... YOU CAN NOW CHOOSE THE STATE THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO CALL
http://newtsnetwork.com/ (click Make the CAll in upper right hand corner)
NOTE: The list filters itself by time zones. It will not show you California at 10am Eastern Time because that is 7am Pacific Time and too early to call there. Once a state’s call list opens up the state name will be added to the dropdown list for you to call. (And in the reverse, Eastern Time Zones will be removed from the list as the night wears on.)
This new reality will enable us to be highly flexible in how we operate and target prospects for GOTV and or volunteer recruitment.
Please disseminate this information to your call teams and volunteer lists.
Thank you
I am certain he cannot win the GOP nomination and even more so a nationwide office in the general election.
He's demonstrated himself to be an idiot.
Yes, they are, but they chose not to breakdown binding delegates versus non binding delegates.
For example, that night where Santorum “won three states” (cough cough) - there were two non binding caucuses and a non binding primary where Newt was not on the ballot and exit polls showed many Santorum “voters” preferred Newt but voted Santorum to be anti Romney. I don’t think any of the “delegates” from that night are binding. At least, not many are. But RCP is counting them.
WSJ is too BTW.
I don’t hate Santorum. I like Gingrich.
I’m not celebrating Rick’s collapse. Only seeing a Gingrich opportunity.
For the sake of the nation, I hope you’re right.
No Romney.
No Saintorum.
No way!
** President Newt Gingrich-”Our beloved republic deserves nothing less.”
So again, you refuse to acknowledge that Santorum’s actually won 4 states.
Hey, from what I can see - Newt can’t win anything that isn’t in the south.
Ergo, he can’t win the nomination because Romney will beat him in the midwest, in the west and in the northwest. That adds up to enough votes to win the convention outright.
But do go on, show me the path Newt has to the nomination despite getting 0 in WA.
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