trappedincanuckistan wrote:
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Agreed. Gingrich and Santorum together will still do well enough in Ohio to deny Romney delegates. I meant Santorum’s difficulties might give Gingrich an opportunity....
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Ohio definitely doesn’t look to be in play for Gingrich at this point. Even though Santorum is my first choice right now, I’m perfectly fine with Gingrich winning the southern states, including Tennessee. I just hope that a late Gingrich surge in the latter state doesn’t split the conservative vote there to the point where Romney would emerge as the de facto winner.
The problem is that Newt can’t win in places like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all states that need to be won in order to deny Romney the nomination.
The south just isn’t enough. Newt needed to win Florida to have a chance, and the South without Florida, and without the midwest won’t defeat someone with the W + NE + Florida.
The delegate count just doesn’t add up. Unless you believe that Newt can win states outside of the south - what is going to happen is exactly what you figure.
The conservative vote will be split, and Romney will start taking WTA states with 35 percent of the vote.