Santorum Declares Georgia In Play

The Atlanta Journal Constittution ^ | March 01, 2012 | Craig Schneider and Aaron Gould Sheinin

[Steelfish]

March 1, 2012 Santorum Declares Georgia In Play

By Craig Schneider and Aaron Gould Sheinin The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum swept into Georgia Thursday searching for votes in a state that could be ripe for the picking.

Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, has moved into a solid second place in the state, according to recent polling, and said he believes he can shock the political world in the state's primary on Tuesday.

"There will be no bigger surprise than if on Super Tuesday Rick Santorum is the winner of the Georgia primary," Santorum said to about 100 supporters in a hangar at Peachtree-DeKalb Airport, where he campaigned following an event in Dalton. Afterward he boarded a plane bound for Washington state.

But, over the course of a 45-minute speech in Atlanta, Santorum focused squarely on contrasting himself with Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor against whom he is battling for the lead nationally. Here in Georgia, Santorum leads Romney is recent polling but trails former Georgia congressman Newt Gingrich. Yet, Santorum barely referenced Gingrich.

He said it's difficult to travel to an opponent's home state and win. "There are good people in this race, but this race is narrowing down," he said, in an apparent reference to a two-man race between he and Romney.

"We need the people of Georgia to stand with the conservative," Santorum said.

[Steelfish]

This post is deranged. Romney would have been finished if Gingrich just withdrew from MI. After being outspent by more than 6 to 1 Santorum came within a squeaker of 3 points of making the biggest upset in the campaign. Gingrich ended up with 7% of the vote and zero delegates. Polls show that Gingrich’s share of the vote is predominantly male and anti-Romney. Had he done the damn decent thing and withdrawn from MI, Romney would have been toast. But egocentric Gingrich wanted to blunt the Santorum momentum so that he too can play in the race. He is now irrelevant. This is a 2-man race. Wake up and smell the coffee and stop dreaming about permanent moon-based colonies and $2.50 /gal gas anytime soon. Santoum can and will beat Obama with his appeal to Reagan (union) Democrats and his ability to carry the rust-belt states.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152930/election-2012-trial-heat-obama-santorum.aspx

[eddie willers]

And I would be stunned if the old Southern states voted for damned Yankees like Rick and Mitt!

True enough.

[octex]

Ohio, Tennesse, Oklahome, in the bag....etc. etc. It shall be a good Super Tuesday for Rick Santorum.
***********************
I don’t understand why those three States would possibly vote for Rick, who is a BIG labor union supporter. Ohio is slowly moving to become a right to work State. Oklahoma and Tennessee are both anti-union. ....Rick may be a devout social conservative, but his position on fiscal matters leaves everyone scratching thier heads.

[napscoordinator]

Oklahoma and Tenn as rinky dink states with not many
delegates. Who cares if little ricky wins there.

Are you serious? So what you are saying is that if Newt only wins Georgia on Super Tuesday, that is a success? What? So Newt’s plan is to win SC, GA, TX, and California and believe he will be the nominee????? I certainly hope that is not his plan because it will never work.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Georgia is proportional. So the best, and probably ONLY, way to keep Romney from getting delegates is for Santorum to work HARD in the state to stay in 2nd place.

In Michigan, Gingrich gave up on that state (and in fact the entire month of February) a long time ago. Yet he did get 6.6%, which wasn’t enough to win anything (and he had no chance of getting ANY delegates, even if he doubled his vote).

So in Michigan, a vote for Gingrich was truly wasted — Gingrich still came in 4th place, and those votes would have put Santorum over Romney, handing Romney a crushing defeat. But that’s OK, because you can’t make people vote for a different candidate — just don’t pretend you didn’t understand the strategy, or that it wasn’t sound. asking people to not vote for GIngrich wouldn’t cost Gingrich ANYTHING.

In Georgia, Gingrich will win. If Santorum holds enough votes to keep Romney below 20%, Romney will get no statewide delegates. If Santorum stays in 2nd in every district, Romney will get no district delegates.

So there is absolutely NO value at all for a Santorum voter to switch to Gingrich, at least from a statewide perspective. Even if Santorum took votes from Gingrich, his presense won’t give Romney MORE votes, and will likely push Romney closer to the 20% floor.

Now, in certain districts it is possible that Santorum could be 3rd, and that throwing his votes to Gingrich might push Gingrich over 50%, which would give him all 3 district votes.

But interestingly, if Santorum was close to Romney, it would be safer if Gingrich threw HIS votes to Santorum, since it wouldn’t knock Gingrich out of 1st, but could pull Santorum up to 2nd and shut out Romney.

I’m not saying they should do that — you need WAY TOO MUCH information to be able to play that game. My point is that the two situations are different, and it is a false argument to try to compare them or draw parallels.

Lastly, you make a logical error when you blame Rick Santorum for requests made by his supporters at FR. Newt didn’t make a deal with Rick over Michigan, nor is there a “reciprocal deal” in Georgia. It’s all just rediculous arguments here.

[octex]

Pandering Ricky may have filled out a questionnaire to be favorable toward the views of those pushing for right to work.

However, I heard him in various speech bites in Michigan and elsewhere talking about how he wants to see a return to the strong manufacturing and mining industries in MI and PA like it “used to be”. .....Those industries were all ruled by strong labor unions and their demands caused the demise of their employers.

[Steelfish]

“Everybody is guilty of some transgression somewhere against conservatism except Santorum.”

- Rush Limbaugh

[TitansAFC]

As you will learn the hard way, it is voting for Santorum that will prove a wasted vote.

Newt will finish second overall in delegates, when all is said and done.

Not only that, but Santorum voters on FR are going to be raging when the reality sets in that the GOP-E and Romneyites in TN, IL, IN, DC, et al aren’t going to give Santorum delegates that they are not required to give him (due to his ballot issues and delegate fielding problems).

In far too many cases, Rick Santorum is going to be counting on the graciousness of (essentially) Romney backers to award him delegates that they are in no way required to award him. It will not happen. Michigan was just a taste of what is to come.

When all is said and done, it will become as evident as it was in the beginning that Newt was the only actual chance of stopping Mitt Romney, despite the almost unanimous indifference of Santorum backers as to whether or not Romney won the nomination — an indifference that has only recently faded now they thought Rick might have had a chance.

Newt has begun ticking upward again, and by winning the most delegates on Super Tuesday, he should march through AL, TX, MI, and the South soon after.

The point of this article, however, is that Santorum leaves with three straight losses and still declares himself invincible. He’s tanking in the polls and declaring “momentum.” He’s just going to march into Georgia and beat Newt on his home turf, he says.

Just wait.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Gingrich was never competing in Michigan, because he had no chance there. IN fact, he hasn’t really competed anywhere in over a month.

You know that Cain got a few thousand votes in Michigan; so did Bachmann and Perry, and a list of dozens of other candidates. You can’t really stop people from voting from you, and Gingrich couldn’t make his supporters vote for Santorum.

So don’t blame Gingrich, if you want to “blame” anybody, blame the Gingrich supporters who still “proudly” voted for him in Michigan even when it was clear it was a wasted vote. Although if they wanted to try to get Santorum out of the way to help Gingrich, that was the way to vote, give Romney a victory and stop Santorum, and then hope that some of that support comes back to Gingrich.

The only problem right now is that while Santorum has dropped some in polls, a majority of his former support is going to Romney. That has always been the problem — while a majority of Newt supporters say they’d switch to Santorum, a majority of Santorum supporters say they’d support Romney.

This can be seen by looking at all the results in the elections. We talk about the “conservative vote” beating Romney. And sure enough, in every state but one where Santorum has come in 2nd, the combined Santorum/Gingrich vote beats Romney (Arizona is the exception).

But in every state where GIngrich comes in ahead of Santorum, but doesn’t win, the combined Gingrich/Santorum vote is still less than Romney (for example, in Florida).

What this means is that when Gingrich gets most of the conservative votes, the Santorum vote goes too much to Romney; when Santorum gets most of the conservative votes, Gingrich still gets a lot of votes, so their combined total holds Romney to a lower total.

Or to put it another way, if you gave Santorum all the Gingrich votes where Santorum beat Gingrich, Santorum would have beaten Romney 3 more times. If you gave GIngrich all the Santorum votes in places where Gingrich beat Santorum, Gingrich wouldn’t have beaten Romney in any of those states.

So asking Santorum to get out does Gingrich no good. But asking Gingrich to get out might help Santorum — if he could get every Gingrich vote.

Better to have both in, because it will keep Romney’s vote totals down. When we hit more winner-take-all states, then it might make a difference.

I’ve never been a fan of the stupid calls to ask other candidates to drop out this election cycle. Imagine if Perry was still in the race — people might jump from Santorum to Perry, who will never go back to Gingrich.

[Steelfish]

Yes, I do agree with your analyses. If Gingrich gets out, his voters pull the lever Santorum and should Santorum drop out, his voters go for Santorum.

This might have something to do with the female vote where Santorum and Romney have a huge lead over Gingrich in this demographic. Males voters who comprise the overwhelming proportion of Gingrich voters switch to Santorum rather than Romney.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Actually, he has 3 straight 2nd place finishes, after 3 1st place finishes. (well, there was a 3rd-place finish in Maine in between).

Gingrich hasn’t placed in over a month. And yet his supports still claim he’s the 2nd person in a 2-person race. This is apparently because Gingrich decided not to compete in the last 8 contests, so his crushing losses there don’t count; although Ron Paul has actually gotten more votes in the past month. Also, Santorum has actually passed Gingrich in both total primary votes, and total caucus votes, to sit in 2nd.

Gingrich still has more pledged delegates. And I guess he could win in several states where he’s currently sitting in 3rd, like Tennessee, where Santorum has a 20 point lead on Romney, with Gingrich 7 points behind Romney. Sure, Gingrich could “tick up”, but is he going to “tick up” 30 points? We know that Santorum supporters tend to favor Romney; so what is the chance that Gingrich can both tear Santorum down 20 points, while taking over 15 of those points for himself? A poll released just yesterday had Santorum 40%, Romney 19%, and Gingrich 13%.

Ohio is at 34/26/18. So Santorum has to lose 9%, and Gingrich get the entire 9%, in order to beat Santorum AND Romney. Gingrich never gets a majority of Santorum’s supporters, and if he could get 3/4ths in Ohio, he’d have to knock Santorum down over 20% (14/33/33).

I’ve seen a lot of talk that with Santorum’s “loss” in Michigan, conservatives will abandon him and switch back to Newt. But Gingrich is 0 for 9 since his SC win, and he’s not even getting 3rd place anywhere. Why would half the conservatives abandon the guy with 6 1st/2nd place finishes, for a guy who is finishing 4th everywhere?

Well, they would if they understand the “take february off” strategy. Maybe they will. We’ll know in 5 days.

But I think hoping for a Santorum collapse is a bad idea, because if Santorum collapses, I predict Romney wins every state but Georgia. And that will be the end.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I don’t pretend to understand why, but that’s what the polls say.

Ohio: 34/26/18 (Santorum/Romney/Gingrich)
Oklahoma: 40/20/20 (Santorum/Romney/Gingrich)
Tennessee: 39/19/13 (Santorum/Romney/Gingrich)

There’s no polling I can find for the Idaho or Alaska caucuses. Romney is going to win Virginia Vermont, Newt should win Georgia.

I see no way that Gingrich is going to win a majority of the delegates on super tuesday. He’s not in 2nd place in ANY of the states where Santorum is leading, so it would be remarkable to be able to leapfrog both Santorum and Romney.

BTW, there’s a caucus before super tuesday:
Washington 38/27/15/12 (Santorum/Romney/Paul/Gingrich)

Once again, it looks like Gingrich might not even place.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Wow, I just pulled back from the potential abyss of quite an excoriating post on NG that would have probably gotten me suspended, if not banned, from FR. Glad I went to make lunch and had the screen up as us, rather than having knee-jerked reacted to your very trite and tired "Little Ricky" epithet and having imprudently hit the "send" button. Close. Reallllllll close. :-) You almost got me. It's kind of funny now in retrospect. And I do now see where some other FReeper later on pretty much put the smackdown on your pathetic, dismissive comments about the great people in the great states of Oklahoma and Tennessee.

[GracieOMalley]

Georgians will not be fooled by Newt.

I say Santorum has a great chance of taking the state.

[GracieOMalley]

If you take a good look at Santorum when he’s wearing jeans, he’s anything but “Little”.

Rather Cheney-ish, I would say.

[CharlesWayneCT]

I should add (because re-reading my post, it was kind of harsh) that i would be fine with Gingrich suddenly surging and winning everything on Super Tuesday, and I only wish he had made it on the ballot in Virginia so I’d have someone to vote for.

I’m not arguing, and have never argued, that I don’t WANT Gingrich to win (the only candidates I’ve actively opposed are Romney, Paul, and Huntsman, although I was quite negative about Cain as well). I’ve argued that I don’t see how he CAN win. Somehow, not “believing” strongly enough can get you labelled as an “attacker” here, as if Gingrich’s losses are because we don’t wish hard enough.

I’m certainly doing nothing to keep him from getting votes.

[Bailee]

It looks like Newt Plan on Super Tuesday(134) is Georgia and Tennessee. On March 10(40) Kansas, On March 13(90) Alabama and Mississippi. On March 24(46) Louisiana. Early April(155) Texas. However I have NO INSIDE knowledge Just listening to his Video Clips of where he thinks he can compete.

465 Delegates In play for those four Dates.

There are Remaining 1888 Delegates still to be Awarded. Virgina has been Taken out Santourm and Newt cannot get.

I think Newt will be seriously going after delegates from California, Pennsylvania, New York. These Are Closed Winner take all. He will have to control spending.

[octex]

“Everybody is guilty of some transgression somewhere against conservatism except Santorum.”
- Rush Limbaugh
********************
Guess Rush didn’t bother to check Ricky’s voting record while he was in the Senate, when he voted FOR so many non-conservative bills (as mentioned on various FR threads over the past few weeks).

I appreciate your enthusiasm, Steelfish, in supporting Santorum. I just can’t buy in to what he says on any issue other than his social-religious issues.

[octex]

Thanks for the data, CW CT.

Info depends on what entity is doing the polling, what their motivation might be, how the questions are worded, how they poll, who they poll and how they weight the results.

I don’t trust any polls from FNC, ABC, CBS, CNN, NYT, WaPo, Gallup, Quinnipiac, PPP, et al, as many are just internet polls that are loaded up by supporters of one candidate or another; or, they are polling only people with land line phones; or, they are weighting the result based on some voo-doo formula. Seems a couple of new poll results pop up every day, indluenced by recent headlines or TV talking heads.

[octex]

Early April(155) Texas.
**************
Texas wont vote until May 29th. The courts screwed Texas on redistricting. Texas will now only matter IF there are still at least a couple of candidates.