I agree. Durable goods orders were down 4% last month. That's bad. I see the folks on CNBC talking about the Recession as if it's in the past, but I think that's very wrong. Soaring gas prices, European Union hanging on by a thread, our own out of control debt, virtually no domestic manufacturing - we've not seen anything yet.
I suspect the nondurable goods orders aren't faring so well either. My wife is a clearance rack shopper. She went out in January to buy next year's winter clothes for the grandkids. She's been doing this for years - she knows the system. She reports that it was slim pickins out there - worst selection she's ever seen. I fear the economy's heading into the toilet.
You and I are of the same mind on the economy. Hold on.
And Erick, get a clue my man.
—Soaring gas prices, European Union hanging on by a thread, our own out of control debt, virtually no domestic manufacturing - we’ve not seen anything yet.—
Exactly. A lot of change has happened the last couple of years. We will be living in a very different reality by the end of summer. That is the beginning of the end of the election cycle. Let’s see what the playing field looks like then. ;-)
My friends and I have graduated from clearance to consignment shops and thrift stores. We have two favorites. The thrift store is heavy on kids clothes at rock bottom prices. I watched one mother of 4 fill 3 large bags for under $30. My husband, myself and a friend all bought top of the line, great quality/condition jackets/coats for around $4-$9 each.
The consignment shop is a gold mine, especially if we wait for the end-of-season sales in Jan-Feb and June-July. I bought 3 top brand, terrific condition mens’ sweaters for $20. Other bargains were comparable.
What is happening is many chains are selling their overage to jobbers, who then peddle them for 50%-70% below wholesale at overstock/closeout shows. This is what you see on eBay and at other thrift venues.
America is full of over-production clothing. It is sold forward due to 1) increasingly rapid seasonal change in the stores, 2) rapid fashion change, where this season’s fad is dead weight after 3 months and the practice of over-buying to fill the racks and create an appearance of abundance, which sells more than the appearance of scarcity. I don’t know why that last is true, but I have seen in in action in retail.
For shoes, the web is full of discount, name brands. Bargain Outfitters/Sportsman’s Guide is one source and for expensive men’s quality shoes and boots, it is hard to beat. It isn’t just Chinese goods, either. My husband just purchased a pair of Rockport service oxfords, Made in America, for around 50% of list price.
Durables are cyclical. When a stove, fridge, washer or dryer wears out beyond repair, you have to replace them. Repairs are expensive (an agitator bolt + service call can be $80) and appliance stores offer GE Capital contracts with 12 month, no interest terms. As long as you do the math and pay it off in the allotted time, it is affordable, even on a reduced cash flow. I wish there were more reconditioned appliances in my area. I used to be able to replace a washer or dryer for $100, but the repair shops have disappeared.
The bargains are still there, but the venues have changed.