Posted on 02/23/2012 9:42:03 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the pack in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican Primary race in his home state of Georgia. A new telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 33% support, followed by former Senator Rick Santorum at 28%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with nine percent (9%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The favorable margin for Newt will only get larger after last night’s AZ debate. His opposition have hit their high water marks.
Mitt at a distant third looks good.
Romney has a way of whittling down Gingrich leads with attack adds. Hopefully that doesn’t happen here.
I wouldn’t describe a 5 point lead as easily winning ones home state but then again I’m not a big fan of Newt. Though I am certainly a big enough fan to vote for him over Obama should Newt prevail.
Yes and look for his numbers to get better after last night.
Romney is running about $700,000 in negative ads against Newt in the state, and Newt I believe, has run ZERO Georgia tv ads against Romney.
Newt Ginrich is going to be here where I live in Kennewick, WA area today at 11:00 a.m.. I would like to go see him but at my age it isn’t going to happen. They said you need to be there no later than 9:00 a.m. Very little parking at the Red Lyon hotel, so would have to park elsewhere and walk. Then inside there will be no seating so have to stand while Newt gives his speech. :-(
Georgia has a lot of retired Northern Liberals and attracting new industries with an influx of workers.
The media is driving these numbers away from Newt - by ignoring or writing him off.
Note that Romney is still referred to as the ‘front runner’. Santorum is getting the religious/social conservative vote. FWIW Savannah’s Catholics and Jews have always had an awesome alliance.
http://savannahnow.com/coastal-empire/2006-11-21/interfaith-movement-turns-200-says-rabbi
I wouldn’t call 5% easy, but I would expect notwithstanding this poll that he should be able to win Georgia.
The key is to have Santorum 2nd, and not Romney. It doesn’t look like Gingrich is going to break 50% for the state, I guess he could break 50% in some districts.
There are 31 statewide delegates, assigned proportionately with a 20% threshold, so it would be great if Santorum was built up more, or even Ron Paul, to drive Romney below 20%. Trashing Santorum in Georgia would be extremely counterproductive. 3 statewide go to the winner, the other 28 are assigned by direct proportion (so if the poll here was the actual outcome, statewide Gingrich=15. Santorum=10, Romney=7.
There are 42 district delegates, divided into 14 districts. For each district, if a candidate has 50% they get all 3, if not 2 to first, 1 to second. If every single district was split like this poll, that would be 28 gingrich, 14 santorum, but obviously with a 33/28% split, it is unlikely the ratio is the same; also Romney with 20% may well have 1st in a couple of democratic-leaning districts.
Other new polls today:
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Michigan Republican Presidential Primary @Detroit Free Press/WXYZ
Santorum 37, Romney 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 7
NEWTORUM +10 OVER Willard the Lib (BIG thanks again to Newt for not contesting Michigan hence allowing conservatives to help Rick)
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Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary @Franklin & Marshall
Santorum 45, Romney 16, Gingrich 9, Paul 7
NEWTORUM +38 OVER Willard the Lib
That should have been Gingrich 14, Santorum 10, Romney 7.
The key is to shut Romney out of delegates as much as possible, which means driving his total support below 20%.
Unfortunately, this is one of the few polls that shows Santorum above Romney in georgia. The RCP average is Gingrich 34%, Romney 23%, Santorum 20%.
It’s odd how those migrating northern liberals bring their liberalism south, but the North remains even more liberal when they move out.
There is a pretty consistent GOP-Establishment vote in GA. Many like to follow the party’s recommendation instead of thinking for themselves.
Pennsylvania actually has all their delegates officially “unpledged”, and most (59) are elected by district separate from a presidential “preference” vote. One would expect that candidates have slates of delegates for each district, and that voters would select the slate corresponding to their preference.
If so, it is possible if Santorum has such a large lead that he would actually be the plurality winner in all 18 districts, and take all the delegates, but in reality it is likely that someone will beat him in one or more districts.
The rest of the delegates are selected by the central committee, and will probably just vote for whoever has the most delegates when they get to the convention.
It’s going to be hard for the PA Republicans to win their liberal state in the fall. I would imagine huge Democrat opposition there to Santorum if he were the upset nominee.
I doubt it’s the migration - more likely voters are media driven. Keep hearing how mitt is the front runner - leads the less informed to believe what they hear.
Let's hope Mittens loses MI too
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yes, that’s what I think will be the biggest impact from last nights debate. Newt secured Georgia for sure after last night (which he was in danger of losing before)
Newt also likely take Tennessee after last night’s debate.
Gingrich will be in Nashville next Monday.
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