Posted on 02/14/2012 10:06:44 AM PST by SeekAndFind
One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama...at least until now. PPP's newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.
This is a new development in the flavor of the month game. Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests. Santorum's the first insurgent to challenge Romney on that front as well:
Month |
Romney vs. Obama |
Flavor of the Month vs. Obama |
Romney Electability Edge |
July |
Tied |
Bachmann -7 |
+7 |
August |
Tied |
Perry -6 |
+6 |
September |
Romney -4 |
Perry -11 |
+7 |
October |
Tied |
Cain -6 |
+6 |
November |
Romney -3 |
Gingrich -6 |
+3 |
December |
Romney +2 |
Gingrich -5 |
+7 |
Santorum's net favorability is 21 points better than Romney's. Santorum's at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That's mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney's +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney's -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
Ron Paul has nearly matched Romney on the electability front, trailing Obama by 8 points at 49-41. Paul does the best of the Republican candidates with independents, with only a 1 point deficit to Obama. Newt Gingrich has firmly established himself as the Republican who would be the biggest general election disaster, trailing 52-40 with a 19 point deficit among independents.
Why is Obama doing so well? It has a lot to do with this finding: 41% of voters think the economy's getting better to only 31% who think it's getting worse with 27% thinking that it's staying about the same. This is the first time since Obama took office that we've asked a question in this vein on a national poll and found more voters feeling optimistic than pessimstic about the way things are heading.
We also looked at how a couple third party candidate scenarios. Roseanne Barr, who wants to be the Green Party candidate for President, is one of the most hated figures we've ever polled. Only 14% of Americans have a favorable opinion of her to 63% with a negative one. In spite of that she still gets 6% in the general, and her presence in the race chops Obama's lead over Romney from 7 points to only 5 points at 47-42. Could Roseanne end up costing Obama reelection? That sounds like good cable fodder for the rest of the week. (It's highly unlikely she would really end up getting anywhere close to 6% of the vote.)
Gary Johnson gets 7% as the Libertarian candidate. His presence doesn't have much impact on the Obama/Romney dynamic though- the President still leads by 7 at 47-40.
Full results here
One would hope so.
Regardless of the outcome, it is going to be a hair raising ride to the convention.
lol
the only argument Romney ever had for people voting for him was his supposed “electability”
and now he doesn’t even have that!
see ya Romney!
no!!! newt wouldnt be the biggest diaster!!! he has debates!!! debates ya heard me!!!!...of course 18 debates so far and he is in 3rd place in his own party but hey thats not important...the womens vote would eat us alive if newt was nominee...we would lose women by 15-18 points
But Romney is the chosen one!!!!1
Romney’s electability argument weakening?
______________________________________
um...
Severely...
Romney who?
That poll was taken before the Romney PAC Opposition Destruction Machine has got going against Santorum. Romney is scorching the earth. He can't win, probably knows he can't win, and is making damned sure no other Republican can win. Romney doesn't particularly need to be president but he feels deep in his bones that he deserves the honor of being the Republican nominee and that the other candidates are trying to steal what is rightfully his.
If Santorum can handle the first two or three salvos with a combination of good humor and common sense, he’ll be well on the way to putting an end to both Romney’s Super Pac hate machine, and Romney’s candidacy.
But if Santorum can’t handle them, well, better to know it now than after he’s nominated.
Personally, I hope Santorum’s successful in parrying the inevitable attacks and that Romney finally gets his due for his consistent neglect of Reagan’s 11th Commandment. What goes around does come around...eventually.
That is how Gingrich disappointed me. He couldn’t stay from the toxic flames. He finally fired back in kind thus kicking his own butt. I pray that Santorum can maintain a cheerful good nature and not reply in kind. That is the biggest lesson from Reagan’s primary fight. The biggest problem then is that Romney’s face is going to be in front of people 10 to 1 for Santorum’s face. Romney’s campaign money is pretty close to infinite. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democrats or Soros would be a huge source if his funds do manage to run low. Romney will also have the advantage of the Democrat Republicans-for-a-day vote.
For the moment, let's set aside his devastating 18 point loss in 2006 and look at his 2000 reelection for a moment.
While he won handily among men the year W was elected at 57%, with women Santorum only pulled 48%.
In 2006? His opponent won 61% of women's votes.
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