I don’t understand the logic of spreading out the vote.
If Newt, Rick and Ron all stay in then they will definitely split the vote but if that happens Rino Romney will go to the convention with the most votes and even in a brokered convention likely be the nominee.
If Santorum is the only alternative to Romney then he can beat Romney and go to the convention with the most delegates. It may still be a brokered convention but the most votes is likely to win. Eventually the supporters of lessor candidates will vote for the majority and tip the scales.
So, Newt, go home and let Rick win this one.
Santorum is the only candidate so far that has gotten more than 50% in a primary, and that was in Missouri where he got 55%. Newt wasn’t in that contest so Santorum got a good portion of Newt’s vote. Which shows what can happen if it was only a two man race.
Here's the argument.
On Free Republic where Mitt Romney advocacy is forbidden, it's probably true that any Santorum supporters will vote for Gingrich if Santorum drops out (that's what I would do if that happened today), and any Gingrich supporters will vote for Santorum if Gingrich drops out.
Polls consistently show that's **NOT** true nationally for Santorum voters. A significant percentage would vote for Mitt Romney if Santorum were to drop out.
I'm guessing that's due to family values issues — the same reason that lots of evangelicals supported Mitt Romney four years ago, and I'm embarrassed to have counted myself in that number until Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses. Four years ago I didn't know the details of Romney's history of flip-flopping on abortion, and considering that I am considerably more invested in politics than most people, how many other evangelicals are still unaware of Romney's past?
I haven't seen recent polls showing what would happen to Gingrich supporters if Gingrich were to drop out. We need to see those polls, and we need to see not only national polls but polls broken down by key upcoming states that track likely Republican primary voters/caucusgoers.
At this point I believe it makes the most sense for both candidates to stay in because Gingrich and Santorum appeal to different voting groups, and it's not at all clear that having one of the two candidates drop out wouldn't have the unintended effect of helping rather than hurting Mitt Romney.
That opinion could change if polling data shows people's second choices are changing.