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Posted on 02/08/2012 8:25:55 AM PST by Lakeshark
Makes sense to me, kind of the political equivalent of the small team Daytona 500 strategy. If you don’t have the advantages of being on a big team, you hook up with a car from another small team as a drafting partner and become de-facto teammates for the race. You work together until the end of the race - then it’s every man for himself.
That’s how the Wood Bros. car won the race last year against all the cars from big teams like Hendricks.
So, in my mind, the state-by-state scoreboard reads:
Santorum: 4 states (IA, MN, MO, CO)
Romney: 3 states (NH, FL, NV)
Gingrich: 1 state (SC)
So, I’m curious why so many people think Romney is inevitable and why, if he isn’t, then Gingrich has to be the choice.
I reject that thinking. All four of the remaining candidates are seriously flawed and I’ll vote for whichever is the nominee, but I believe Santorum best reflects my values of the four left.
You may very well be right, if he continues to poll well, I will vote for him instead of Newt, who I prefer just a little bit (experience of being a change agent, ability to describe the alternative vision of conservatism).
Let's confer a couple of days before the primary, maybe start a Michigan based thread for the primary as well.
The way it looks I would say that Rick is lining himself up more for Romney’s V.P. Rick has been attacking Newt, a lot. I will vote for Rick if he is my only shot. I am pretty sure he has no shot at beating Romney, and less than that to best Obama. Newt has the political skill and crisma to do it. But people have to realize they are electing a president not interviewing for a potential mate or friend.
Mitt needs right at 49% of the remaining delegates to win outright on the first ballot at the convention.
He has 108 and needs 1036 to go.
The Winner Takes All States that he will likely win are:
California - 172
New York - 95
New Jersey - 50
Utah - 40
Connecticut - 28
Rhode Island - 19
Delaware - 17
That is only 421. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania (72), Oregon (28) and Arizona (29), then he will be in a tough situation as most of the rest of the contests are either proportional or in Winner Takes All States where he trails badly.
This looks like it goes to a brokered Convention!
Like your analysis.
Mitty makes me cringe.
Newtie makes my wife cringe.
We’d both vote for Rick in a heartbeat.
The establishment will be screaming for Newt or Rick to get out before then because they see the writing on the wall..
And even those are not slam dunks. They are generally far in the future, and while liberal in general elections may not be as bad in the GOP primary.
FYI, it appears Rhode Island and NY are proportional? NY if the winner does not hit 50%.
Gingrich currently has almost twice as many popular votes as Santorum. He was responsible for a MASSIVE increase in turnout in South Carolina, something like 35% when no other state went up more than a couple points. When Newt is ON, there is no better and more electable candidate. What he did in South Carolina seems like it was the same thing he did in 1994 when he swept the House.
I think he was thrown off his game in Florida by Mitt’s dishonest attacks, but could easily find his footing again on Super Tuesday.
An inexperienced player like Rubio or West would be a TERRIBLE V.P. pick for Santorum. Santorum is like G.W. Bush and needs SERIOUS GRAVITAS and big brains on his V.P. side. There’s almost no one else but Newt that fits the bill. Conservatives ought to want a real supply-side hard-liner like Newt there to keep Rick from straying into the Bush low tax/big spending mode.
I still have trouble seeing why Romney has such a big advantage supposedly. Of Gallup’s 24 most conservative states, only ONE has voted so far, South Carolina. Half of the delegates come from those states and about a quarter from moderate, a quarter from liberal. Mitt only has the liberal states locked up at the moment.
The strategy in this article is questionable, because you have to think that one state’s voters will be thinking much differently from another state’s on the same day, even though they’re all Republicans. The Santorum 3-state sweep suggests that might not happen, although he did win Colorado by a much smaller margin. Rick and Newt seem to appeal to the same base so it seems like the same one of the two will be preferred in every state on the same day based on whatever the national trend is.
Newt makes sense as a V.P. because that’s a great spot for a spokesman for the administration to be, someone who can sell the country on conservative policies in speeches and interviews. As President, people might not want him running around making speeches all the time. But with few official duties as V.P. he will be free to be out there educating the American public.
My observations: Turn out is down when it’s a foregone conclusion (from polling data) that Romney will win (Florida and Nevada)
Turn out is up when GOP voters think someone can take Romney (SC, and the three contests yesterday.)
What the GOP base is saying is we lose interest in the whole process when Romney looks like the only game in town, and we get intensely interested when it looks like we’re going to help a conservative beat Romney.
However, first we had to sort out the conservatives, in a pretty messy process. That’s now been done, Gingrich is in what is likely to be a permanent decline, and Santorum will be picking up most of the conservative vote going forward.
And with nearly every election from here on out now likely to be at least close, the GOP base will turn out in droves and Romney will soon realize you can’t “position yourself” to flummox the right, like you can the left.
I don’t really care if Gingrich stays in it or not. He’s about to get the same voter treatment as Perry, Huntsman, and Bachmann got when they faltered; he’s going to be treated as a wasted vote from here on out.
Santorum’s favorability factor is the difference. He has it; Gingrich doesn’t. All those marriages are coming home to roost, regardless how good he might be in office. Now we get to see if Romney’s PAC’s can drag Santorum through the mud successfully, or if it backfires, as it well might.
Please freepmail me if you wish to be added or dropped from the mitten ping.
I'd love to see Mitt beat here in the mitten and I don't think it's such an uphill battle. Nobody I know--including those of the elder generations--feels the same connection to him as they do to his forefathers.
I've been backing Santorum from the start, hope he kicks some butt here.
I respect your opinion though I think you are wrong. Rick needs more seasoning and needs to be under a truly great leader like Newt. I did not say great man, I said great leader. Newt can still be a great man, and Rick can be as well. I will vote for Rick Santorum if he is the nominee. I really hope he is not, because I believe he would lose badly. On the other hand Mitt Romney is neither a great man, nor a great leader. Hang in there.
I remember when Romney’s dad was Guv - he was an arrogant prick and at my tender young age,I didn’t like him. Maybe it was becuz my folks were old-school Dems back then ;o)
I want to like Santorum, but he seems like another Big Guv guy who is pro-life (which I really do like about him).
Those 4 states didn’t matter. They were a beauty contest. It was a good thing strategically for Santorum as it was the booster shot he needed to stay viable.
As far as delegates, Newt still has more.
Let’s not open this one. As a protestant could make the case that Catholicism doesn’t teach the truth about Jesus either.
We have enough on POLICY to discredit Mitt Romney!
“I think Santorum could win this if Newt dropped out. I don’t think Newt could beat Romney if Santorum dropped out. Newt has hit a wall with Married women and has too much baggage. Santorum can win this and Newt chould put his Ego away and do the right thing.”
This election not about morality. Social issues are important (especially in the heartland where Rick does well) but it’s ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY. Rick is a good guy but he’s not spelling out his economic plan and his history in congress regarding fiscal policy is pretty poor. He’s an earmark guy and he thinks there’s no such thing as wasteful military spending (there is :))
Newt has more delegates as well. Those 4 states meant very little aside from breathing life into Rick’s campaign.
“So, in my mind, the state-by-state scoreboard reads:
Santorum: 4 states (IA, MN, MO, CO)
Romney: 3 states (NH, FL, NV)
Gingrich: 1 state (SC)
So, I’m curious why so many people think Romney is inevitable and why, if he isn’t, then Gingrich has to be the choice.
I reject that thinking. All four of the remaining candidates are seriously flawed and I’ll vote for whichever is the nominee, but I believe Santorum best reflects my values of the four left.”
I feel like you don’t understand the way the primary process works. The 4 states Santorum just won mean JACK DIDDLY in terms of delegates. The winner of the primary is the candidate who wins the most DELEGATES, not the most STATES. As far as delegates it’s Mitt, Newt, then Santorum.
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