My observations: Turn out is down when it’s a foregone conclusion (from polling data) that Romney will win (Florida and Nevada)
Turn out is up when GOP voters think someone can take Romney (SC, and the three contests yesterday.)
What the GOP base is saying is we lose interest in the whole process when Romney looks like the only game in town, and we get intensely interested when it looks like we’re going to help a conservative beat Romney.
However, first we had to sort out the conservatives, in a pretty messy process. That’s now been done, Gingrich is in what is likely to be a permanent decline, and Santorum will be picking up most of the conservative vote going forward.
And with nearly every election from here on out now likely to be at least close, the GOP base will turn out in droves and Romney will soon realize you can’t “position yourself” to flummox the right, like you can the left.
I don’t really care if Gingrich stays in it or not. He’s about to get the same voter treatment as Perry, Huntsman, and Bachmann got when they faltered; he’s going to be treated as a wasted vote from here on out.
Santorum’s favorability factor is the difference. He has it; Gingrich doesn’t. All those marriages are coming home to roost, regardless how good he might be in office. Now we get to see if Romney’s PAC’s can drag Santorum through the mud successfully, or if it backfires, as it well might.
“I don’t really care if Gingrich stays in it or not. He’s about to get the same voter treatment as Perry, Huntsman, and Bachmann got when they faltered; he’s going to be treated as a wasted vote from here on out.”
There’s a common flaw in Santorum supporters’ arguments about Gingrich. He didn’t decline in the polls due to family issues/bad marriages. He declined because of the Freddy Mac accusations and his own attacks on Romney that sounded like they were coming from the mouth of a liberal. The conservative base didn’t like that and I think Newt learned the hard way in Florida.
I would also like to add that Newt stated he’s working on a presidential version of the Contract With America! Should be interesting to see in the coming months...