Posted on 02/01/2012 6:47:09 AM PST by montag813
I just heard Newt’s speech after Florida and I have come to realize that Newt is going to win the GOP nomination and be the next president.
I understand that most people think that Romney is most likely, but I do not agree. First, Romney has never shown the ability to get the majority of the votes in any primary. Second, Romney’s win in Florida took place with no actual consideration of Romney’s record or ideas — Romney’s entire campaign was based on the idea that Romney is the only person who can beat Obama. His whole campaign in FL was on attacking Newt. Third, the voting numbers showed Gingrich did very well in the Fl. panhandle, which votes like southern states. This suggests that Gingrich will likely sweep the South.
Gingrich’s problems in FL were easy to fix. Gingrich got off message. Gingrich froze in the face of shock and awe from Romney’s attacks. Finally, Gingrich faced the one state that only Romney had a strong campaign organization in. The fact of the matter is that Romney had to compete in Iowa with almost everyone and lost. Romney had to compete in NH with Huntsman and won. Romney had to compete in SC with Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich and lost. FL was always too big for anyone but Romney to have a strong organization and ad campaign in. Gingrich had the momentum, but Romney had a uniquely large organization advantage for FL.
In future states Romney will continue to have an organization advantage, especially through Super Tuesday, but as the primary goes on, Romney’s advantage will drop as (1) later states even out since Romney is running a campaign like Clinton did in 2008 and his organization is strongest early, (2) as the race goes on voters will develop more solid opinions and organization will mater less, and (3) Gingrich will emerge as the alternative to Romney and will be better organized as people realize he is the only hope for conservatives in this race.
In terms of campaign focus, Gingrich is now developing a new contract with America and I expect he will use that to stay on message and contrast himself with Romney. Gingrich held a vote on all items he promised to and did what he could to pass them for the original contract. That was a promise kept for him. He will have credibility for his new contract and this will contrast him with Romney who cannot be trusted and is not conservative.
In terms of Romney’s shock and awe attacks, it is hard to see Romney get much worse. Romney’s negatives have already shot up, and it is almost impossible to think of what worse things Romney can attack Gingrich for. Romney already used several lines of attack have had blow back, and if he picked those as ‘go,’ it is hard to think he has anything left to fire with. The Romney smear campaign will need to let-up at some time or Romney will completely implode. How long can a campaign be 99.9% negative?
What it comes down to is that Gingrich is a real candidate, and Romney is a pretender. Gingrich has real conservative ideas to fix the problems we are in. Romney has talking points.
If I were Newt, I wouldn't have called that flip flopping liar either.
If, rightly or wrongly, that is what the electorate is focused on, then that was an indisputably brilliant way to run one's campaign, eh?
If we want Mr. Gingrich to be President, the first thing that has to happen is to understand THE ABOVE.
Stating and restating and restating and restating how GREAT Gingrich is and how HORRIBLE Romney is is NOT going to budge voters.
No matter how great Gingrich is, he has a pattern of political behavior that has caused deep skepticism about his electability. Fact.
For example, when people saw that he lost the female vote by 22 points in Florida, that tends to reinforce the worry that Gingrich is not going to be able to win over women in the general. And what can he do to change that that he hasn't already tried? There are plenty of women who will never take back a "bad boyfriend," no matter how he tries to convince them. Fact.
For example, the recent spate of former Reagan officials speaking against Gingrich. The potential damage there is not that they were correct or accurate, but that the mere fact that they spoke out demonstrates that Gingrich is hated by a lot of people. Sure, one can argue that's a "good" thing, but most voters don't think so: they think, so how the hell would we get this man elected when he's completely unlikeable?
If there were not concerns about Gingrich's electability (again, whether one agrees with them or not), I believe he would have already been declared the nominee in a run-away early primary stretch.
And just saying "I don't give a damn and either should you" about (fill in the blank) weird political crap Gingrich has done isn't going to address the electability concern.
Voters could not give a hoot about anything Gingrich has done wrong (politically or personally) and they still wouldn't vote for him if they thought those things presented too much of an obstacle or risk to him defeating Obama.
That’s right, the American people don’t like Newt, and most conservatives don’t trust him either. Obama may be stronger than we thought four months ago. People do like their incumbents, for it validates their lack of knowledge.
” Don’t we have at least one competent Republican in this country that can run a campaign on actual issues?”
Santorum is running on issues. I fail to understand why he is not doing better. He is the most ‘in line’ with the national mood that swept conservatives to victory in 2010. I don’t think those who voted straight R ticket in 2010 have suddenly become moderate.
“the voting numbers showed Gingrich did very well in the Fl. panhandle, which votes like southern states. This suggests that Gingrich will likely sweep the South.”
This is the key. North Florida is really just South
GA. I am originally from Jax. Its conservative and a good indication of how Newt will do in the deep South. He will probably sweep. Willard is going to bomb.
you are EXACTLY right, JAG. all anyone i know is concerned about is BEATING OBAMA. all anyone is doing is sucking it up and voting for whomever they believe best able to do that. maligning/ridiculing voters for choices other than the ones that you would make is counterproductive. this BS about you are a phony, not a true conservative yada yada if you vote for Mitt may make you feel all superior but it accomplishes NOTHING. those voting for Mitt aren’t members of any elite, they just figure in their own personal calculus, that he’s got the best chance. same with those voting for Newt. your advice is sound, JAG.
Of those we have left, I’d go Santorum, even though I do not consider him to be a true conservative. At least he has some dignity. Newt and Romney are not deserving of respect. One is no better than the other. We are in deep doo doo.
“I would rather lose with Gingrich than “win” with Romney.”
You’re not alone on FR with that opinion. With all due respect, its an idiotic statement. If Obama wins, the country goes down in flames. We need to win 2012. With Romney, or Gingrich, or Donald Duck, but we must win. We need to rally behind whoever wins the nomination and clean the muslim marxist out of the White House. Anyone would be an improvement.
He does. Romney's a liberal. And Santorum should be with his sick daughter instead of campaigning. He just publicly told everyone what's more important to him. Santorum isn't a winner.
Santorum does not have any dignity. He’s a spoiler for Romney. And his daughter is in the hospital. Where is he? He just told us what’s more important to him.
Well, last night Santorum said flat out that ‘Romneycare is Obamacare’. If he continues to pound that point, he should do quite well. I believe he’ll do very well in Missouri and much of the southern states. Santorum talks the most about providing the greatest contrast between himself and Obama and THAT is what the nation is clamouring for. We’ve seen that from the Scott Brown election, to Christie & McDonnell victories, to NY 9, Nov. 2010 and on. The one who unashamedly proclaims the biggest contrast should win quite easily imo.
Lastly, certainly not least, please don’t count out God and prayer. Scripture shows that He Hears the earnest prayers of His people. We must pray and fast for righteous authority.
Kate
Romney/Bolton vs Newt/Santorum. Who wins?
I'm sick of all of them. Don't we have at least one competent Republican in this country that can run a campaign on actual issues? This is a major disappointment.
Exactly how I feel. I'm still with Newt, but only because of inertia at this point. My enthusiasm for him disappeared with the moon colony stuff.
As unrealistic as it is, my only hope at this point is that we get to a convention with Romney not having a first ballot majority, and the animosity is so great that someone else has to step in as a compromise. They'd probably lose in the general because of a lack of exposure. but at least I could cast a ballot without cringing in disappointment.
If Santorum thinks he has a chance for Romney’s VP, he’ll stay in and buffer a win for Romney. He could care less about Newt.
For Newt to win, he’d have to get the support of Sarah Palin and announce that she’ll be his VP if victorious.
Er, Gingrich won the female vote in South Carolina. Fact. Does that not reinforce the fact that Gingrich can win the female vote? What were you saying then?
Or, are you one of those that pick and choose their facts?
Why is it “Newt went negative” rather than “Newt fought back?”
“We need to win 2012.”
If Romney is the nominee, there is no way that happens.
Good points in this article. Mitt is way too weak of a conservative and we will not need many debates for this to come out! It is Romney that is done! Thank God.
True. Even the MSM, who love Romney, are admitting that his FL victory is mostly due to going negative against Newt.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.